by Malek Dudakov
[REGNUM] The tail can try to wag the dog for a long time. But sooner or later it ends. This is roughly how one can evaluate the surreal spectacle that took place in the White House during the visit of Vladimir Zelensky.
It is unlikely that we can recall any precedents in modern US history when an official meeting between an American president and the leader of another country turned into a public squabble and showdown.
Donald Trump has long avoided meeting with Zelensky.
During his first term, he did not invite him to the White House. The summer scandal of 2019 with Trump's call to Zelensky, the details of which the Ukrainian side leaked to the American press, had an effect. During the conversation, Trump demanded that Zelensky investigate the Biden family's corruption in Ukraine. Democrats in the US Congress later used the opportunity to try to impeach Trump for this.
Later, with the beginning of Joe Biden’s term, Zelensky was invited to the White House four times.
These meetings were quite routine - the positions of the Democrats who came to power and Ukrainian lobbyists generally converged. Although even then Zelensky often tried to behave very boldly and constantly demanded the provision of new categories of weapons. From Javelins to artillery, missile systems, Abrams tanks and, ultimately, long-range ATACMS missiles.
In September 2024, Zelensky also came to the United States to campaign for the Democrats and Kamala Harris’ campaign ; he was then taken to a shell factory in the swing state of Pennsylvania.
But there was no miracle for the Ukrainian lobbyists, and the Democrats lost the elections by a landslide. Trump did not forget all the complaints about Zelensky, so he was in no hurry to meet with him. Although after the elections, at the instigation of Emmanuel Macron, he had a short conversation with Zelensky in Paris.
Ultimately, it was the Europeans – the leaders of France and Britain – who persuaded Trump to hold a summit meeting with Zelensky at the White House.
Trump's team timed this to coincide with the signing of a long-planned deal to develop rare earth metals in Ukraine. It was supposed to grant American companies the right to 50% of all deposits in Ukraine. The revenues from production were then supposed to go to a special fund aimed at reconstructing the country.
From the very beginning, many questions arose about whether these deposits actually exist in Ukraine or not.
The Europeans also conducted their parallel negotiations with Kiev and did not want to lose the opportunity to extract something in Ukraine themselves. And the estimates of profits from the development of mineral reserves were constantly changing - from trillions to hundreds, and then tens of billions of dollars.
But for Trump's team, a deal with Kiev would in any case mean an opportunity to "recoup" at least some of the investment in the Ukrainian project. This could be called a victory for American taxpayers and used to deflect criticism from hawks demanding continued military action.
Ukrainian lobbyists demanded that Trump provide some kind of security guarantees from the United States in exchange for providing their deposits.
However, it was clear from the very beginning that Trump’s team had no intention of giving its guarantees.
Now a new budget is being adopted in Washington, within the framework of which a strict reduction in government spending is planned. And external tranches are among those that were first to go under the knife. The White House has no desire to allocate new tranches to Kyiv. The European hawks, who begged the US for logistical assistance in sending their peacekeeping mission, were also left high and dry.
There are plenty of contradictions between Trump's team and the current government in Kyiv.
But even under these conditions, it was hard to imagine that the White House talks would immediately turn into an "exchange of pleasantries." Zelensky, in his usual aggressive manner, began to demand additional arms supplies from the United States. He also called on Trump's team not to negotiate with Russia, but to leave it all to the Ukrainians themselves.
Zelensky's attitude literally drove the Republicans crazy.
Trump and his Vice President J.D. Vance gave Zelensky a real dressing down, whose rudeness played a very cruel joke on him.
The negotiations broke down, the deal was not signed, and the Ukrainian delegation was required to leave the US territory as soon as possible. They were even forced to pay for their accommodation in Washington, although visits by leaders of other countries are usually paid for by the American side.
Zelensky is used to using his favorite style of aggressive and boorish diplomacy in dealing with European politicians. He probably also tried to do business with Democrats in the US. Moreover, many of them had corrupt ties to Ukraine.
So there really were opportunities for the tail to wag the big American dog. But now there are other people in power, and the situation has changed.
By the way, this is far from the first case in American history when one or another country dependent on the United States sought to obtain support from its “metropolis” in an ultimatum form.
The authorities of South Vietnam in the last years of its existence also tried to openly blackmail politicians in the USA. But at least it was done privately. In the end, the American dog got rid of that "tail".
It is quite possible that we will see a somewhat similar scenario in Ukraine.
Trump's team has already placed its loyalists in senior positions in the American intelligence agencies. For example, the FBI is now headed by Cash Patel and Don Bongino - both of whom have long advocated for opening an investigation into corruption with the allocation of Ukrainian tranches. After Zelensky's humiliating flight from the White House, the likelihood that these processes will be given the green light has increased.
In the future, Zelensky’s inner circle may well fall under personal US sanctions for fraud and corruption.
This will also be used as a lever of pressure on Kyiv - with the demand to hold presidential and parliamentary elections. Washington will become even more active in seeking a change of power in Ukraine in order to replace Zelensky with someone more manageable.
In the political and military spheres, we should expect a deepening split between the US and European hawks over the issue of Ukraine.
Trump's team will certainly speed up the negotiating track with Russia, which is already bearing fruit with the restoration of diplomatic services.
What is coming may well be a softening of US sanctions in certain areas and an intensification of dialogue on the resumption of joint economic projects.
Relations with Kiev, while Zelensky is in power there, are now completely ruined by the Trump administration. Therefore, Ukrainian lobbyists and circles associated with them in Europe will not be allowed to negotiate with Russia.
The turmoil in the White House will sharply worsen the attitude towards Zelensky inside the US. Most Republicans already perceive him in a very negative light. At the same time, almost 80% of Americans support the earliest possible peace talks with Russia and de-escalation in Ukraine.
A public confrontation with Zelensky will allow Trump to show himself as a champion of US interests and someone who is ready to put pro-Ukrainian hawks in their place. For Zelensky, a conflict with Trump is unlikely to end well.
