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| Europe |
| Following the elections in Germany, the Bundestag will face a 'Bandera coalition' |
| 2025-02-25 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Gregor Spitzen [REGNUM] Early elections to the Bundestag have ended in Germany. The fate of the future government coalition could be decided by literally fractions of a percent. The main attention was focused not even on the three undisputed leaders - the CDU/CSU, AfD and SPD, but on the outsiders of the electoral race, whose results radically influenced the final balance of power in the Bundestag. Since neither the FDP (4.3%) nor the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) managed to overcome the five percent barrier, the votes cast for these political parties were effectively lost. This means that the lucky parties will now be able to count on a more optimal distribution of forces and a larger number of parliamentary mandates. The most important thing is that in such a scenario, the CDU/CSU (28.5%) and the SPD (16.4%) will be able to form a two-party black-red coalition (which some sarcastic German political scientists have already managed to dub “Bandera-style” by analogy with the colors of the terrorist organization OUN, banned in Russia), without taking anyone else into their company. ORGANIZATION OF THE PROCESS The process of civic expression of will in Germany is organized as follows. Two weeks before the elections, the recipient receives a personal invitation to vote by mail, which must be brought to the polling station, receiving a ballot paper instead. As an honest citizen, when he came to the elections, your correspondent handed the commission member both the invitation and the German passport. "We don't need it," the nice lady from the election commission responded in surprise. It became clear that the commission members did not even suspect that they were creating a huge space for political corruption! Firstly, the invitation could have been given by third parties. In addition, it can be pulled out of someone else's mailbox. Finally, you can make a high-quality copy and use the original to vote early by mail, thus registering twice. If during early voting at the city hall a code is read from the invitation, which gives a portrait of the voter, then there was no such equipment at the polling station. You should have seen the eyes of the election committee members after they were given a crash course in dirty technologies. Saints in their simplicity are responsible for ensuring that the will of the German people is reflected in the new composition of the Bundestag. SHADOW OF THE GDR Absolutely all systemic political forces have already flatly refused to form a coalition with the AfD (20.8%), which showed a phenomenal result. At least until the next elections, the Alternative for Germany remains a pariah party, with which all systemic political forces have flatly refused to cooperate. The AfD's phenomenal result is a strong warning sign for the political mainstream, but in practice the party will remain in opposition for the next four years. Theoretically, if Donald Trump and Elon Musk do not weaken their support and make AfD's entry into German politics as a full-fledged player a condition for continued American support for Europe, another outcome is possible. The party must split, distancing itself from the most odious radicals in its ranks, such as Björn Höcke. After that, the renewed AfD, having undergone the ritual of “purification,” could theoretically enter into an alliance with the CDU/CSU, forming a right-wing conservative bloc. But for now, this is an equation with many unknowns. However, the AfD's nearly 21% in the federal elections and the territory of the former GDR, which was almost entirely painted in blue by the Alternative, primarily indicate the following: the voter in eastern Germany is aware that his voice is not heard in Berlin, and in the mainstream media the image of the "East German" is subject to the strongest stigmatization. A resident of the former GDR, according to the German press, does not understand how democracy works and is generally a closet Nazi or communist. He simply does not realize his "happiness" from a free choice of two or more candidates. After all, a "good German" must believe what the media writes and vote only for the "right parties." However, East Germans, unlike West Germans, have a developed national consciousness. This consciousness was not castrated as a result of the denazification policy. And the fact that many Germans grew up in the GDR means that they also have developed critical thinking and can read between the lines. In the West, people have largely lost this skill. Over the next four years, Germany's division into East and West will only increase. An example of this is the phenomenal result of the AfD in Saxony, where it is gaining 38%. The outstanding success of this party in the Bundestag elections is due to many factors. These include the acute problem of illegal migration in Germany, the economic difficulties caused by the amateurs from the "traffic light coalition", and the demand in German society for peace with Russia and the rejection of militaristic rhetoric. However, the success of the Alternative for Germany is primarily the result of the protest vote of Germans. Many support this party not at all because they sympathize with the "radicals" or "right-wing extremists", as it is called in the media. Voting for AfD is a form of political protest. A resounding "no!" to the systemic political parties that have opened the doors to terrorists in Germany and brought the country to recession and deindustrialization. COALITION LAYOUTS A coalition with Die Linke is acceptable for the SPD, with whom it has worked successfully for many years at the state level – for example, in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, consistently forming a red-red regional government. However, the Left is completely unacceptable for the CDU/CSU because it categorically refuses to support Ukraine and put the interests of Kyiv above the interests of its own voters and Germany as a whole. The Green Party (11.6%), which discredited itself utterly during the last term, was a relatively acceptable but very undesirable option for both the CDU/CSU, with whom the Greens have radical differences on issues of nuclear energy and economic management, and for the SPD, whose leader Olaf Scholz has had his share of hard times with the Green partners within the framework of the “traffic light coalition.” However, be that as it may, the two-party black-red bloc ultimately did not need the “green” “violinist”: there were enough votes to form a government and relatively effective coalition without them. The Greens have lost 3% compared to the last election and are gradually losing the support of the youngest part of the German electorate. Whereas previously it was mainly young people who voted for them, now the core of their supporters is more likely to be middle-aged and middle-class people in western Germany. Young people across the country are rapidly becoming radicalized, voting for AfD and Die Linke, forces that have established themselves on the edges of the political spectrum. If today's youth have not lost their passionate spirit by the next elections, and the younger generation of voters is no less radical, the electorate of the parties of the political center could suffer serious losses. Although it is definitely too early to talk about the funeral of the political center. The "Left", which was practically written off six months ago, is gaining a phenomenal 8.8%. Political scientists disagree on what is behind the rapid rise of a political force that was floundering at the bottom of the electoral ratings less than six months ago. Some are inclined to believe that it is all about the electoral feint of the CDU/CSU leader Friedrich Merz, who joined forces with the AfD on the migration bill, which alienated moderate voters from the CDU/CSU, throwing them into the arms of the Left. Others believe that the ranks of Die Linke were filled with dissenters from the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (4.97%), who were disappointed in their idol. Let us recall that Wagenknecht, who performed extremely successfully in the regional elections to the East German Landtags, abandoned a number of fundamental points of her election program for the sake of hypothetical entry into the government coalition. Some voters considered this a betrayal and returned to the "Left", from which, in fact, the "Alliance" had distanced itself at the time. Wagenknecht's party was just 0.03% short of entering the Bundestag. Some voters in eastern Germany sadly joke that these less than 14,000 votes are the bitter price of betrayal. |
| Posted by:badanov |
| #16 Bed, bread and soap in the middle of nowhere. How about no bed, no bread and no soup at all? No welfare. No health care. No nothing. That way they'll self-deport. Don't you get tired of supporting the freeloaders? |
| Posted by: Abu Uluque 2025-02-25 16:30 |
| #15 And why would we have no interest in stopping illegal migration? Do tell! |
| Posted by: European Conservative 2025-02-25 11:40 |
| #14 ^^^But they have no real interest in stopping illegal migration. No more interest in that than "closing the borders" or anything else the promised. |
| Posted by: Crusader 2025-02-25 11:18 |
| #13 closing the border to illegal migration |
| Posted by: European Conservative 2025-02-25 09:41 |
| #12 @11 I looked at the remarks again. Which qualifier doe you mean? Söder actually made an even stronger statement, he said that "Zero tolerance and zero compromise" in "future migration policy" is the consensus betweent Merz and him. ("Null Toleranz und Null Kompromiss" ist die "Leitlinie für künftige Migrationspolitik."@0:03:00) |
| Posted by: Elmerert Hupens2660 2025-02-25 09:28 |
| #11 You did notice the qualifier? |
| Posted by: European Conservative 2025-02-25 09:03 |
| #10 "Faktisch bedeutet das eine Grenzschließung für illegale Migration." “In effect, this means closing the border to illegal migration.” Markus Söder, 20230123 Söder is the state premier of Bavaria and chairman of the CSU, one the the 'Union' parties. |
| Posted by: Elmerert Hupens2660 2025-02-25 08:51 |
| #9 but once the numbers are dropping sharply, the AfD will lose its major talking points. Precisely. The promises need to be kept. Mourning after the next attack is not enough. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2025-02-25 07:45 |
| #8 Just an ideological, not a technological difference. Germany is in the middle of Europe (and the European market). If you wanted to stop and search every truck that enters Germany, economy would come to a screeching halt. Staff and installations aren't there either, right now. While border control must be improved, it will not solve the problem, at least not in the near future. What we need are disincentive measures. Denmark has been very successful with these. Bed, bread and soap in the middle of nowhere. The SPD will throw public hissy fits, but once the numbers are dropping sharply, the AfD will lose its major talking points. And they have nothing else to offer. |
| Posted by: European Conservative 2025-02-25 07:21 |
| #7 ^To keep their own people in, not third world looters out - there is a difference. |
| Posted by: Grom the Affective 2025-02-25 07:04 |
| #6 The GDR had closed borders. |
| Posted by: European Conservative 2025-02-25 06:31 |
| #5 ^Yea, sure. |
| Posted by: Grom the Affective 2025-02-25 06:17 |
| #4 "Border closures" and "border controls" are two different things. |
| Posted by: European Conservative 2025-02-25 06:15 |
#3
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| Posted by: Grom the Affective 2025-02-25 06:03 |
| #2 "which some sarcastic German political scientists have already managed to dub “Bandera-style" Too bad he couldn't name "some" of those "political scientists". They just don't exist (at least mnot in Germany, maybe in Moscow) and not even one in thousand Germans would understand the "sarcasm". Wagenknecht lost because she tried to parrot the AfD, with not much of a leftist twist. But had she passed the threshold of 5%, Mr Spitzen would have to face a coalition including the Greens, who are way more hawkish than the SPD when it comes to Ukraine. All Banderistas, of course, but no flag joke possible. |
| Posted by: European Conservative 2025-02-25 05:57 |
| #1 So, who will be responsible for maintaining Bandera's grave in Munich? |
| Posted by: DooDahMan 2025-02-25 02:31 |