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-Signs, Portents, and the Weather-
Odds of the ''city-killing'' YR4 asteroid hitting Earth are up
2025-02-19
[NYPOST] NASA just increased the odds that ''city-killer'' asteroid YR4 2024 will strike our planet in 2032.

The space agency claimed that the dangerous space rock now has a 1-in-38, or 2.6%, chance of hitting home — the highest probability of a collision yet, New Scientist has reported.

When the asteroid was initially discovered in December 2024, the odds of a strike clocked in at 1-in-83, before increasing to 1-in-67, to 1-in-53, to 1-in-43 and now, the current frightening figure. Meanwhile, the European Space Agency's odds are slightly lower at around 2.4%.

Since late January, NASA has designated YR4 a level three on the Torino Scale — a standard rubric for the danger of NEOs (Near Earth Objects) that measure over 65 feet in diameter and have a 1% or greater chance of deep impact.

According to the scale, this asteroid is a ''close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers'' and boasts a ''1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction.''

If Earth were to get rocked by YR4 — which measures between 131 and 295 feet in diameter — the resultant energy blast would be equivalent to 8 megatons of TNT, roughly 500 times the power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, the Independent reported.
Related:
YR4 02/16/2025 Astronomer reveals when data on the orbit of asteroid 2024 YR4 will be available
YR4 02/12/2025 Scientists warn of possible collision of asteroid 2024 YR4 with the Moon
YR4 11/06/2024 Kenyan Jihadi is convicted of plotting a 9/11-style terror attack in America on behalf of al-Shabab

Posted by:Fred

#11  Sounds to me like the story interest ratings are up.
Posted by: swksvolFF   2025-02-19 14:56  

#10  

Many have seen the NUKE Simulator site, where pick your weapon yield and a target city. Then watch the results.

Someone needs to make such a site for the YR4.

Any bets on what the most popular target city / area would be?☺
Posted by: NN2N1   2025-02-19 14:31  

#9  Was the most powerful offensive spell in Final Fantasy VII.
Posted by: mossomo   2025-02-19 14:15  

#8  Who had 'Sweet Meteor of Death' on their 2032 bingo card?
Posted by: ed in texas   2025-02-19 12:20  

#7  ..on that point.
Posted by: Procopius2k   2025-02-19 08:37  

#6  Odds of the ''city-killing'' YR4 asteroid hitting Earth are up

At this point, I believe the majority of Americans can settle on what city.
Posted by: Procopius2k   2025-02-19 08:00  

#5  At least the nuclear asteroid winter will take care of global warming.
Posted by: Elmerert Hupens2660   2025-02-19 05:40  

#4  The art of landing on an asteroid

Seems to me NASA ought to know the orbit by now.
Posted by: Skidmark   2025-02-19 04:34  

#3  WNBA
Before they were dudes.
Posted by: Skidmark   2025-02-19 04:22  

#2  So, the odds are similar to a WNBA 3-point attempt?
Posted by: Crusader   2025-02-19 00:25  

#1  Saint Elon, preserve us.
Posted by: Glolutch Tingle1702   2025-02-19 00:16  

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