[Regnum] New calculations have shown that the asteroid 2024 YR4 , which is potentially threatening the Earth, may not reach the planet and crash into the Moon. This is the conclusion reached by a group of asteroid hunters from the University of Arizona and NASA, the British publication The Independent reported on February 11.
Earlier, NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (Cneos) estimated the probability of this asteroid colliding with the planet in 2032 at 2.3% instead of the previous 1%. At the same time, astronomer David Rankin, an engineer with the Catalina Sky Survey, estimates the probability of its collision with the Moon at about 0.3%.
"There is a possibility that it could eject some material that could fall to Earth, but I highly doubt it would pose a serious threat," the publication quoted Rankin as saying.
If a large asteroid collides with the Moon, which has no atmosphere, a crater hundreds of meters wide could form on its surface. Debris from it would be thrown into space, the article says.
As reported by the Regnum news agency, the asteroid with the designation 2024 YR4 was discovered in December by specialists from the ATLAS observatory in Chile. Its diameter is presumably between 40 and 90 m, which roughly corresponds to the Tunguska meteorite.
This object topped the list of asteroid risks of NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA). The probability of the Earth colliding with all other celestial bodies included in this list does not exceed 1%, while for this one the figure varies from 0.5 to 6%.
According to Stanislav Korotky, scientific director of the Ka-Dar observatory and the Astroverty astrofarm, the range of estimates of the threat of YR4 colliding with Earth is due to the short period of observations of this cosmic body. So far, the supposed area of ​​the object's fall is considered to be Central Africa or the Atlantic Ocean.
In China, YR4 has prompted the formation of a planetary defense team.
