Slavyansk is where the war between Russian backed militants and Ukrainian military began in 2014, under the leadership of (now disgraced) Russian reserve FSB colonel Igor Girkin (Igor Strelkov). Its capture at the same time is both strategic and symbolic.
by Sergey Adamov
[REGNUM] The Russian Armed Forces are consolidating their successes in the SVO zone. Over the past month, the settlements of Kurakhovo and Velikaya Novosyolka were liberated in Donbass. The offensive continues in the area of Pokrovsk, the center of the enemy's defense in the eastern part of the DPR. To the west, Russian troops are pushing back the enemy in the area of Chasov Yar and Toretsk, advancing in the direction of Konstantinovka.
After the liberation of Pokrovsk, the last major defensive hub, the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, will remain under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
The forces advancing from Pokrovsk and Chasov Yar, like two pincers, slowly squeeze Slavyansk from both sides, creating the contours of the future encirclement of a large group of enemy forces.
And although the battles for Pokrovsk are still ongoing, it is already possible to predict how the situation in Donbass will develop in the coming months.
In 2014, Slavyansk became a symbol of resistance to the DPR. The militia's takeover of the city inspired resistance throughout the Donbass. During the "anti-terrorist operation" launched by Kiev, the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk area was surrounded, but the local garrison held the line for several months.
It is symbolic that the liberation of Donbass may end where it began 11 years ago.
At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces, even when faced with many problems, do not plan to retreat without a fight. Therefore, the liberation of the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka-Konstantinovka agglomeration may become the most difficult task for the Russian army during the entire period of the SVO. We are talking about 5,000 square kilometers of territory, dense urban development, where more than 500 thousand people lived as of 2022. There is also a large industrial zone here, turned by the enemy into a solid fortified area.
A frontal assault on this, without exaggeration, citadel could result in major losses, so the hypothetical “Slavic operation” should develop in several stages, military expert Alexander Mikhailovsky notes in a commentary for the Regnum news agency.
"Even after the liberation of Chasov Yar, there will still be Seversk and the Serebryanskoye forestry area. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have clung very tightly to this area of territory because it is strategically important. With the liberation of Seversk, the road to Slavyansk itself will open. So in the foreseeable future, we should expect that the front in this area will begin to move," the expert predicts.
In the spring of 2014, Seversk came under the control of the DPR militia forces and became a symbol of resistance on par with Slavyansk, Kramatorsk and Krasny Liman, the source recalled. However, they failed to maintain control over the city. And during the SVO, Russian troops again reached the approaches to Seversk, but so far the Ukrainian Armed Forces have managed to hold the front in this area.
The resumption of hostilities near Seversk will mean the beginning of the "Slavyansk operation". But for the complete encirclement of Slavyansk, another important task must be solved.
LEFT BANK, RIGHT BANK
In the context of the liberation of the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk district, the area of territory at the junction of the territories of the DPR, LPR and the Kharkov region, squeezed between the Zherebets, Oskol and Seversky Donets rivers, is of key importance. The cities of Svyatogorsk and Liman (Krasny Liman), which literally "hang" over Slavyansk, are located in this area.
Supplying Ukrainian troops in this area is seriously complicated by the lack of proper crossings. Previously, Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft consistently destroyed bridges across the Oskol River, so the Ukrainian military was forced to build several pontoon crossings, which are also regularly subject to air strikes.
Now, in the "interfluve", after a long pause, military actions have resumed. Advancing from the Svatovo region, Russian troops liberated the settlements of Zeleny Gai, Vishnevoye and Pervomayskoye.
Further advance in this area could allow the enemy group to be cut in two and force the Ukrainian Armed Forces to retreat beyond the Oskol River. However, even with the liberation of the city of Liman, which is adjacent to Slavyansk, it will still be impossible to proceed directly to storming the city, note front-line sources of the Regnum news agency familiar with the situation in this area.
"We were already in Liman, and I can say that the fighting was limited to mobile groups crossing the Seversky Donets in both directions and subsequent clashes on both banks. The bridge between Liman and Slavyansk in the area of Raigorodka was blown up by the Ukrainian Armed Forces back in 2022, so it is not so easy to cross the river in this place," the source notes.
To encircle Slavyansk from the north, it is necessary to bypass the city and cut the M-03 highway to Izyum. Ukrainian sources fear that Russian troops could force the Oskol in the Gorokhovatka area north of Slavyansk and break through to Izyum.
But before that, it is necessary to completely clear the “interfluve” of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
CUT THROUGH THE ENEMY'S DEFENSES
The most vulnerable section of the enemy front in the central part of Donbass is the area of Konstantinovka. Russian troops are simultaneously advancing on the city from the northeast, from Chasov Yar, and from the southeast - from Toretsk.
According to reports from the field, the Ukrainian Armed Forces removed everything valuable from the city, including police and fire equipment, several months ago. According to experts, the assault on the city may develop according to a proven and repeatedly tested tactic.
At the first stage, the forces advancing from Chasov Yar can cut off supplies between Konstantinovka and Druzhkovka. Earlier, the Russian Armed Forces were also able to take control of another enemy logistics route - the highway between Konstantinovka and Pokrovsk.
Only after the city is surrounded will Russian troops be able to force the enemy to retreat. Or begin an assault.
"There are many options for how events will develop. One of them is that the enemy's front will be cut in several places. It is possible to wedge between Druzhkovka and Kramatorsk, Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. In short, to create separate pockets of defense instead of a continuous front. But this is, as they say, "drawing arrows", only an assumption. Only the command knows how it will actually be," notes expert Mikhailovsky.
The final stage of the operation in this case will be a strike on Slavyansk from the rear, which could be carried out after the liberation of the Pokrovsky district.
HOW WILL THE UKRAINIAN ARMED FORCES RESPOND?
Naturally, the Ukrainian military command understands how events on the front may develop in the coming weeks and months. But it seems that Kyiv has no opportunity to influence the course of the Russian operation.
After the tactic of creating “fortress cities” failed to justify itself, the Ukrainian Armed Forces never found any effective way to stop the advance of the Russian Armed Forces, time after time wasting their forces in attempts to prolong the fighting.
The fighting in the Velikaya Novosyolka area showed that this tactic does not bring the desired results: Russian troops defeat the enemy through maneuver, intercepting supply routes and occupying key heights.
According to reports from the field, the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk region has been intensively preparing for defense in recent months. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are focusing on the industrial zone of the Novokramatorsky and Starokramatorsky machine-building plants, the Energomashspetsstal plant, the Kramatorsk heavy machine-building plant, and a number of other enterprises.
The factory workshops are stockpiling ammunition that could allow the garrison to conduct combat operations even in complete encirclement. Similar reports are coming from Slavyansk, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces are "settling" the Central, Southern and Eastern industrial zones, and Druzhkovka, where the enemy is fortifying the Druzhkovka Machine-Building Plant.
"Nobody can say now what will happen next, but we know that there are no impossible tasks. Our aviation is "breaking" fortified industrial zones using heavy aerial bombs. And ordinary soldiers have long worked out the tactics of assault. So, no matter how they prepare, we see it and react," notes a frontline source of the Regnum news agency.
The priority task for the Russian army in Donbass is still the liberation of Pokrovsk. The city is practically blockaded, and Ukrainian sources report an "extremely difficult" situation on this section of the front.
It is unknown whether the Ukrainian Armed Forces will decide to fight for the city to the last or retreat to the territory of the Dnepropetrovsk region, but the liberation of Pokrovsk will become a prologue to the battle for Slavyansk, and therefore, for the final liberation of Donbass.