by Victor Vasiliev
[REGNUM] The world has yet to fully assess the global consequences of the change of power in the United States. But it is already obvious that American foreign policy will undergo serious changes.
Such a strategically important direction as Africa is no exception. However, no one expected that changes would begin so quickly and the continent would find itself on the threshold of a new major war.
PROFITS OF WESTERN CORPORATIONS
The M23 (March 23 Movement) rebel group, which has seized control of much of the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in recent years, says it has recaptured the key city of Goma, capital of North Kivu province, which is home to large reserves of rare earth metals, from government forces.
In addition to gold, copper, cobalt and diamonds, the Congo has large reserves of coltan, a valuable mineral used to make smartphones, tablets and other devices. Its production is the cause of serious armed conflicts, so it is no coincidence that coltan is called the "bloodiest" mineral. There is little of it on Earth, and the largest electronics manufacturers need more and more raw materials every year.
The bulk of coltan is smuggled out of Congo through neighboring Rwanda. The largest processing plants are located on its territory. And it is the Rwandan armed forces and special services that the Congolese side accuses of supporting separatists and direct participation in the armed conflict.
Last year, Rwanda signed an agreement with Anglo-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto to explore and develop lithium in the country, an official announcement was made on January 29, 2024. Rio Tinto Group is an Australian-British concern, the third-largest transnational mining and metallurgical company in the world and, incidentally, the main competitor of the Russian company RUSAL.
The investment agreement envisages the creation of a joint venture with the Rwandan company Aterian to develop lithium and related products (cesium, tantalum, etc.). Rio Tinto plans to invest $7.5 million, which will allow it to become the owner of 75% of the lithium production, located in the southwest of the country (on the border with the DR Congo) on a site of 2,750 hectares. The investment decision on Rwanda shows Rio Tinto's global strategy to take a significant share of the market for the metal needed for batteries.
Experts have long known that Rwanda's rare earth metals processing facilities, located in the west and south of the country, operate on raw materials mined in the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo. And now, under various pretexts, Kigali is carrying out aggression against its neighboring state, destabilizing the situation in the entire region, provoking a humanitarian crisis, and all this for the sake of profits for Western corporations such as Rio Tinto.
With Donald Trump in power in the White House, Rwanda has decided to build on its success. Which will likely result in another major bloodbath in Africa.
CHANGE IN US POLICY TOWARDS AFRICA
For the national interests of the United States, the geopolitical and geo-economic importance of Africa has increased significantly in recent years.
And President Trump, who has repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to question conventional wisdom, including his own past judgments, is likely to pay significant attention to the African Continent, despite his previous statements about wanting to focus on domestic issues and his cool attitude toward Africa during his first term in 2017–21.
It is important to clarify that this does not refer to the place that Africa will occupy among the foreign policy priorities of the new administration, and, accordingly, not to the volumes of funds allocated. There will be a change in approach and a reorientation of attention to African countries other than those on which the Biden administration was counting.
For example, the well-known US Agency for International Development (USAID), which is often considered responsible for implementing the US “soft power” and “supporting democracy,” is likely to face significant budget cuts. The agency is plagued by accusations of meddling in the affairs of other countries.
Many humanitarian programs will be cut, not only in the area of human rights protection, but also in practical areas - in agriculture, health care, etc. And this will hit individual African countries and vulnerable groups hard.
Without a doubt, entire layers of African societies, made up of activists and humanitarian workers who use the corresponding budgets, will be left not only without work, but literally without food.
THE LOGIC OF CONFRONTATION WITH CHINA
On the other hand, the largest infrastructure project implemented by the United States in Africa, the Lobito transport corridor, will be supported and continued. Construction of the railway within the corridor is planned to begin in 2026. 830 kilometers of track should connect Lucano in Angola with Chingola in Zambia. The project envisages extending the railway to the enterprises of the Zambian copper belt. The work is estimated at 2.3 billion dollars.
Some experts call the "Lobito Corridor" the "Trump Corridor" because the idea appeared back in 2020 during the first presidential term of the "strongest American leader", and the project equally includes both commercial interests and geopolitical logic. That is, American policy will become less ideological, more practical and at the same time subordinate to this logic.
We are talking about confrontation with China and the definition of Beijing as the geopolitical "enemy number one", which became a certain consensus of the American elite during Trump's first term in office. And if we reason in the logic of opposition to the Celestial Empire, then Africa could become the key space for confrontation between the two powers.
As strange as it may sound, the key link in China's strategy is not Taiwan, not the bordering Central Asia or the countries of Southeast Asia, but Africa. Simply because of the presence of a huge number of minerals, including those critically important for modern sectors of the economy, in the extraction of some of which China already has a monopoly.
Also, due to objective factors - economic and population growth - in a number of African countries, China has seriously increased its imports in recent years. Africa is also a promising market, which is forgotten by the same Western mining companies. If you look at China's most famous initiative, "One Belt, One Road", it turns out that it was African countries that received the most funding.
In the energy sector alone, China has financed more than 36 projects (mostly hydroelectric and solar power plants) in at least 19 African countries. In addition, between 2021 and 2023, Beijing signed 66 project contracts with African governments, 57 of which were in sub-Saharan Africa, and only two contracts were signed outside the Belt and Road Initiative.
As a result, Africa will remain a primary focus of American foreign policy, along with the Middle East, where Israel has strong interests, and Southeast Asia, where US attention is focused on Taiwan, but not only.
SANCTIONS AND ISRAEL'S INTERESTS
The Republicans' toolkit for combating China's growing influence includes not only positive cases (like the "Lobito corridor"), but also negative ones. We are talking about sanctions that will be widely applied to African elites who allowed themselves to choose the "wrong partner."
Apart from China, where everything is pretty clear, many forget that the Republicans are almost completely in solidarity with Israel's foreign policy. The latest events in the Middle East are indicative in this regard. But this also applies to the African direction.
Under Trump, South Africa and a number of other African countries that allowed themselves to be too harsh in their criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during the latest crisis in the Gaza Strip will find themselves in the crosshairs of American sanctions and other forms of pressure from Washington. At the same time, the United States will pay special attention to countries that have come under significant Israeli influence in recent years: Morocco, Ethiopia, Chad, Sudan, Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda.
It is worth remembering that it was the Republicans who initially began to effectively use such an instrument as sanctions in international politics – this is a fact.
Just Security, an information resource at New York University School of Law and considered a source close to the White House administration, predicts that the Trump administration will widely use sanctions against Africa. The author of the article, Brad Brooks-Rubin, a senior adviser at the US State Department’s Office of Sanctions Coordination, reports that the Trump administration, unlike Biden, will be able to use this system of pressure more successfully:
“This could open up new opportunities to advance broader policy, national security and even economic goals, such as competition with China, supply chain security for critical minerals and other natural resources, and even immigration.”
As successful cases, the author cites the Trump administration's sanctions measures from 2017 to 2020 against the Democratic Republic of the Congo (which prevented Joseph Kabila from retaining power ) and against South Sudan (which helped end the civil war).
Overall, however, the idea that the Trump administration will be able to more effectively deal with the consequences of the huge array of sanctions that the Democrats have created against Russia and China is highly questionable.
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RUSSIA
The strategy of confronting China and defending Israel's interests can also be supplemented by the Republicans' dislike of traditional Western partners. To the point that in a number of areas, the Trump administration may prefer Russia to France as a partner in Africa (we are talking, of course, about the Sahel).
For example, Republicans cannot stand French President Emmanuel Macron. Phenomenally, but it is a fact: France’s recent defeats in Africa, including the forced and humiliating withdrawal of French troops from Chad, have caused Republicans to feel a sense of restrained satisfaction.
On the other hand, sanctions restrictions on a number of African countries (the "stick method") from the White House will once again push these countries towards Russia. It should not be forgotten that Russia and African countries have similar experience in resisting Western sanctions. Some African countries have been under sanctions pressure for a very long time: Sudan since 1993, Zimbabwe since 2003. And this is another circumstance that brings us closer together.
Such experience also provides an opportunity to implement a system of counter-sanction measures. Starting with interaction and coordination of a common position at the level of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and international platforms and ending with the implementation of specific economic steps. The first action could be to study the mechanisms for implementing Western sanctions and the practices of their application against African countries, as well as a comparison with the current Russian experience.
Africa is literally the storehouse of the collective West. Without access to African resources, all scientific and technical progress of the Western world loses its base, and the Chinese end up as winners. And in this sense, the position of African countries, which have largely refused to follow the Western propaganda, is very indicative.
Recall that 26 African countries did not support the resolution calling for an end to Russia's military operations in Ukraine. Eritrea voted against the resolution and expressed clear support for Moscow, 16 other African countries abstained, and nine countries did not take part in the vote.
Russia has no need to show solidarity with the interests of China or the United States on the African continent. Its goal is different: to consolidate and expand its own influence in the conditions of confrontation between these two powers, in particular to fully settle accounts with its long-standing opponent, France.
Returning to the situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo, it can be noted that at the grassroots level in Congolese society there are numerous calls for the need to invite Russia and Russian instructors to ensure security in the eastern provinces of the country. These calls are indicative from the point of view of the possible growth of not only the relations between our countries, but also the popularity of Russia on the Black Continent as a whole.
We can equally act as independent arbitrators and as defenders of all those unfairly offended and disadvantaged on the continent.