by Sergey Adamov
[REGNUM] The year 2025 should be decisive in the issue of the conflict in Ukraine. This is the opinion of the authors of the majority of Western media, who expect the imminent start of peace negotiations. They are reportedly to be organized by the elected US President Donald Trump.
However, while Trump's entourage and supporters are talking about ending the conflict, the outgoing but still current administration of Joe Biden is considering the possibility of continuing military operations - provided that Kiev makes a number of concessions.
In particular, Ukraine will have to decide whether to lower the age of mobilization to 18, Biden's national security adviser Jake Sullivan said in an interview with Bloomberg. Otherwise, Ukrainian troops may lose support from the United States.
"Ultimately, this is a sovereign decision that Ukraine must make. Even if we do everything we can to provide them with the ammunition they need," Sullivan said.
It is not yet known whether the statement reflects only the position of the previous administration or whether it is the American vision as a whole. But in any case, the words of the American official were perceived critically in Kiev. In response to Sullivan's statement, Volodymyr Zelensky demanded that Ukraine be provided with even more military equipment and weapons. According to him, there are "more than 100 brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces" on the battlefield that need to be staffed.
However, very soon Zelensky signed a law that obliges 17-year-old Ukrainians to register for military service. However, such a step is unlikely to motivate the West to deploy armored vehicles not in homeopathic doses, but in the volumes requested by Kiev, military expert, retired colonel Anatoly Matviychuk told IA Regnum.
"The US is soberly assessing the situation on the battlefield. Recently, the White House voiced the idea that the US has a problem - there are not enough Ukrainians for the war. They need soldiers who will resolve the situation on the battlefield. NATO has no soldiers to send to the front, they are running out of soldiers. The principle is put forward: "money in the morning - chairs in the evening. At the same time, they are shifting responsibility for supplying the Armed Forces of Ukraine to Europe," the expert notes.
According to Matviychuk, Washington is acting sensibly in believing that deliveries of weapons for which there are no trained crews cannot change the situation at the front. Therefore, Kyiv's rearmament ultimately comes down to field testing of weapons.
THE TEST SITE CONTINUES TO OPERATE
In early January, the US Congress allocated a new package of military aid to Kyiv. Officially, the list of supplies included ammunition, spare parts and equipment for servicing military equipment - that is, Washington did not announce the supply of armored vehicles and offensive weapons.
In turn, Kiev's European allies are not shy about announcing deliveries in the press and through official channels. In early January, it became known that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had received a modern Lynx infantry fighting vehicle manufactured by Rheinmetall, the head of the concern, Armin Papperger, said.
“It is currently undergoing testing in the armed forces in order to go into serial production as soon as possible,” he noted.
The Lynx IFV is a promising model of a new generation of German armored vehicles. It was first presented in 2016. The vehicle exists in two versions - KF-31 and KF-41. The KF31 modification can be equipped with a 30-mm or 35-mm automatic cannon, and the KF41 is equipped with a Lance 2.0 turret. The IFVs are also equipped with Israeli Spike anti-tank missile systems and/or drone launchers.
On January 14, the German Aid to Ukraine project reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had received a batch of vehicles for testing in real combat conditions. After the tests are completed, serial production and deliveries to Ukrainian troops are planned to be launched. The German government has undertaken to finance the delivery program.
On the same day, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius officially presented the RCH 155 self-propelled artillery unit based on the Boxer armored personnel carrier. According to the official, this is the first of 56 self-propelled guns promised to the Ukrainian Armed Forces by the German government.
"Ukraine can count on us. Germany is ready to take responsibility for security in Europe," Pistorius said.
We are talking about the first ever wheeled self-propelled artillery unit of German production. The unit is equipped with a gun of the "standard" NATO caliber of 155 mm. In the future, Germany plans to deploy deliveries of other armored vehicles based on the Boxer APC, equipped with a module with a 30-mm rapid-fire gun.
At the same time, it is not disclosed when exactly serial deliveries of both models of armored vehicles will begin. In 2024, when deliveries of the Lynx IFV were announced, it was reported that 10 vehicles would be produced by the end of the year. Now, however, we are talking about one delivered vehicle and uncertain plans for the future.
Regarding the RCH-155 self-propelled gun, it is known that the first “ready” vehicle will be used for training crews at training grounds in Germany, and deliveries of the guns to the Ukrainian Armed Forces will presumably begin in April.
In both cases, we are talking about prototypes that German armored vehicle manufacturers are counting on, planning to export them around the world, military expert and author of the Telegram channel “Russian Engineer” Alexey Vasiliev told Regnum news agency.
"The Lynx IFV is a good modern vehicle. Rheinmetall is preparing it for delivery to the Bundeswehr to replace the Marder 1A5, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces are currently receiving. We are talking about field tests to check the vehicle in combat conditions, identify and eliminate any shortcomings. The same applies to the RCH-155 self-propelled guns. The equipment was transferred for testing, not for the front," the expert notes.
At the end of 2024, Vasiliev recalled, unconfirmed reports appeared on the Internet that Germany would transfer a batch of "kinetic defense vehicles" (Kinetic Defense Vehicle) to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Presumably, this refers to a promising air defense system manufactured by Diehl Defense.
The system consists of the R400S combat module on the Enok MBB chassis. The module is equipped with a radar station designed to search for and detect the most popular models of drones, as well as a machine gun for destroying identified targets.
The manufacturer of the complex could not find a buyer for its weapons for a long time until the delivery of a trial batch to the Ukrainian Armed Forces was agreed upon at the expense of the German government.
Thus, Ukraine continues to play the role of a testing ground for NATO countries, testing cutting-edge developments at the front. The Ukrainian military is relegated to the role of guinea pigs.
THEY PROMISE A LOT, BUT DELIVER LITTLE
Throughout the Ukrainian conflict, the US and its allies have tried to avoid large-scale arms deliveries, citing the scarcity of their own stockpiles and high production costs. For example, the US has supplied only about 200 of the not-so-modern Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, no more than 30 Abrams tanks, and around 100 Stryker armored personnel carriers.
Therefore, the new announced deliveries, especially if we take into account European countries, are unlikely to be large-scale.
"The same Lynx IFVs turned out to be very expensive for the Bundeswehr, so they decided to test them and check them in action. And we are talking about very small quantities, which in any case will not be enough to somehow change the situation on the battlefield," Alexey Vasiliev is sure.
At the same time, serial deliveries of promising models of armored vehicles are planned for spring or even the second half of 2025. By that time, the situation at the front for the Ukrainian Armed Forces threatens to become completely critical. Moreover, Kiev may not wait for serial deliveries, admits Anatoliy Matviychuk.
"Kiev cannot make a decision regarding the mobilization age. If it is lowered, as the US wants, a real wave of indignation will rise, although there are already many people dissatisfied with the "busification". But it is also impossible not to raise it - they risk being left without equipment. Kiev may be left without both the military and weapons at the same time," notes the interlocutor of the IA Regnum.
Therefore, Ukraine must be content with the role of a testing ground for NATO countries. Perhaps this will please the Ukrainian Armed Forces command, but it will not help the exhausted brigades at the front.