by Kirill Semenov
[REGNUM] Just over a month ago, on December 8, 2024, the Assad family's 54-year rule in Syria suddenly ended. After a rapid 11-day military campaign, the armed opposition led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Ahmed al-Sharaa ( Abu Muhammad al-Jolani ) came to power. From that moment on, the very future of Syria as a state was called into question.
Over the past month, Syria's new transitional government has made some efforts to reassure the public by emphasizing its commitment to preserving state institutions and avoiding the chaos that was seen during the transitions in Iraq and Libya. And it must be acknowledged that it has succeeded to some extent, although the time that has passed since it took power is still very short: it is too early to make more optimistic forecasts for the future.
Perhaps the main success of the new government is its international recognition.
Despite the presence of both HTS and al-Sharaa himself on terrorist lists, most leading world and regional capitals have rushed to establish ties with him. For example, many countries whose official representatives al-Jolani has already met have not considered it necessary to normalize relations with Taliban Afghanistan, although more than three years have passed since the Taliban came to power.
It is clear that international contacts were facilitated by HTS's refusal to necessarily proceed with the assertion of the primacy of Sharia, as well as the new authorities' declared readiness to maintain the existing secular system of government throughout the transition period. Within the country, major roads were opened, many previous restrictions were lifted, and basic public services were restored to return to normal life.
However, the main problem facing the current Syrian government is ensuring the security and unity of the country. And here there are many cracks that threaten to become splits in the future. Although the government is making efforts to prevent negative scenarios.
Unlike the situation in Afghanistan in 2021, when the Taliban came to power and faced a significant surge in ISIS terrorist activity, the new Syrian government was able to prevent terrorists from emerging from the desert to carry out attacks in Syrian cities. Therefore, New Year's celebrations throughout Syria and Christmas in Christian areas took place without casualties. Although it is Christians and representatives of non-Sunni Islamic faiths who are the first to fall victim to ISIS terrorist attacks.
The fact that large-scale public celebrations are held on these non-Islamic holidays also shows that the authorities in Damascus, despite the continuing concerns of Syrian religious minorities, have not introduced Sharia law in the country and banned holidays and events that are not related to Islam. Even alcohol continues to be freely available. The same applies to the dress code: women can still go around without covering their heads.
By the way, representatives of the fair sex have taken several positions in the leadership of the new Syria. In particular, Meysa Sabreen became the chairperson of the Central Bank of the country and the first woman in this position in the history of Syria, and Mohsen al-Maytawi was appointed governor of Suwayda province, also becoming the first woman in such a position.
CHRISTIANS: BETWEEN HOPE AND FEAR
Syrian Christians, despite many pessimistic expectations, were reportedly able to celebrate Christmas without hindrance. But it was not without incident.
In the run-up to the holiday, several individuals affiliated with HTS burned a Christmas tree in the city of Suqaylabiya in Hama province. This led to mass demonstrations by Christians on Christmas Eve (which is celebrated in Syria according to the Gregorian calendar). However, according to the new Syrian government's security service, the perpetrators were detained and given disciplinary punishment.
To reassure Syrian Christians, Ahmad al-Sharaa met with representatives of all Christian denominations in Syria on December 31. A ban was also imposed on sectarian slogans, including those directed against Syrian Christians.
However, the fear for their future among Christians in Syria has not disappeared. The situation is aggravated by conflicts between individual representatives of Christians and Muslims, which lead to an increase in interreligious tension. And, according to Christians, the new authorities are trying to side with the Muslims when resolving them.
This happened in the city of Maaloula, where a conflict between local Christians and Muslims occurred. Then one of the local Sunnis, accused of attempting to rob a Christian home, was killed. Armed Muslim militias from the surrounding villages began to converge on the city. This led to the flight of a number of Christian families, who began to accuse the new Syrian authorities of supporting local Muslims and doing nothing.
Nevertheless, many Christian communities in Syria, despite their fears and mistrust of the new authorities, are actively involved in building the new country. And the Antiochian Patriarchate has welcomed the return to the country of leading Syrian Ash'ari Muslim theologians, such as Sheikh Osama al-Rifai, a world-renowned Islamic scholar who can counter sectarian manifestations among Muslims.
The Patriarchate also organized a political conference to encourage Antiochian Christians to actively participate in the political life of Syria. “We see this as a significant development after many years of passivity in politics, which has negatively affected the Christian community in Syria. We also call on the government and people of Greece to support and assist such initiatives,” the statement said.
DRUZE AND KURDS: CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM
The appointment of Druze activist Mohsen al-Maitawi as governor of Suwayda province, populated by members of this religious minority, was able to open up opportunities for more productive cooperation with the new authorities in Damascus. Thus, the largest armed Druze groups, People of Dignity and Liwa al-Jabal, announced on January 6 their readiness to integrate into the new Syrian army.
This was the result of meetings between political, religious and public figures from Suwayda and officials from the transitional government, which agreed that all key positions for ensuring security in the region would be given to Druze.
A process of negotiations has also begun between the predominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the new Syrian authorities.
An SDF delegation met with Ahmed al-Sharaa in Damascus on December 30. The parties discussed the future of northern Syria, security cooperation between the SDF and the transitional government, and the fate of Kurdish-controlled areas of Aleppo.
Media outlets affiliated with the SDF called the meeting positive, noting that such discussions are expected to intensify in the coming weeks. SDF chief Mazloum Abdi noted that during the talks, the parties agreed on the need to preserve a united Syria. Therefore, it can be said that the SDF has already made certain concessions, abandoning the federalization of the country.
The transitional government hopes to peacefully integrate the Syrian Democratic Forces into the structures of the Ministry of Defense and does not intend to start an armed conflict for now. This, however, may be met with opposition from Turkey and the Syrian National Army (SNA) formations associated with it, which hope to solve the "problem" of the Syrian Kurds by force and are already preparing a new military operation.
PRO-TURKISH FORCES: INTEGRATION PROBLEMS
The SNA and Turkey have their own priorities, which do not fully correspond to the plans of the new authorities in Damascus. At the same time, the integration of the SNA into the new Syrian army has not yet begun, despite statements by its factions about self-dissolution and entry into new structures.
Moreover, the future of the so-called interim government in Gaziantep, Turkey, under whose auspices the SNA operates, is also unclear: it has not yet been dissolved either.
Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the SNA, with the support of Turkey, will begin its own military campaign against the SDF, which could disrupt Damascus’ plans for the peaceful integration of Kurdish formations.
For now, Damascus and HTS have only received the opportunity to take control of border crossings that were previously controlled by the SNA.
The issue of including the "Southern Operational Headquarters" in the new army is no less complicated. It was the forces of this command that were the first to enter Damascus on December 8.
Armed groups in southern Syria have declared their refusal to disband themselves in accordance with the wishes of the new administration leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa. This will complicate his task of establishing Damascus' authority throughout Syria and could lead to serious consequences and even a clash between the parties.
A spokesman for the Southern Operations Command, which currently controls Daraa province, Colonel Nassim Abu Arra, told Al-Akhbar that the southern factions do not agree with the "idea of dissolving the factions."
He noted that they have weapons, heavy equipment and full gear, and they should become part of the Ministry of Defense forces as a single military body.
However, the real leader of the southern Syrian forces, who prefers to remain in the shadows and refuses to take up positions in the new government, is Ahmad al-Awda, the former commander of the 8th Brigade of the 5th Corps, formed by the Russian military from among the reconciled rebels. He apparently also intends to play his own game, relying on the support of the UAE and Jordan, which are very wary of al-Sharaa.
The latter also has many problems with more radical groups such as Ansar al-Tawhid. Since HTS took control of Hama province on December 5, 2024, several extrajudicial executions, destruction of houses, attacks on public and private property have been recorded there. They were carried out by representatives of this group from among foreign citizens, primarily ethnic Uzbeks and people from the Russian Caucasus.
It is known that al-Sharaa met with representatives of this group in Damascus, but the results of the meeting and whether it will be liquidated are unknown. However, the number of sectarian crimes in the Hama region has decreased. Also, representatives of this radical group were unable to prevent the celebration of Christmas in the province.
ALAWITES: THREAT OF REPRISALS
Security issues in Alawite-populated areas remain the most difficult. The delicate balance between restoring order and protecting individual rights is highlighted by sporadic reports of people being detained for minor violations. There are also crackdowns on alleged accomplices to Bashar al-Assad 's regime crimes. However, the criteria for "involvement" are not clearly defined. Therefore, any Alawite who served in the security forces could be at risk.
And while there are not many serious abuses in other parts of the country, in regions where Alawites live, the number of violent acts increases sharply.
There are two factors at play here.
Firstly, the hostility of Assad's opponents towards the Alawites as the regime's mainstay that developed during the civil war. And, secondly, the persistence of cells of armed supporters of Assad in Alawite areas who carry out attacks on representatives of the new Syrian authorities.
On December 28, the transitional government's security forces launched a large-scale operation to clear northwestern Syria, the purpose of which was to find "war criminals" from among the employees of the former Syrian structures. However, independent observers noted that peaceful Alawites who were not members of the armed formations of the former government also became victims of such operations. Some of them were subjected to violence, beatings and arrests simply because they belonged to the Alawite religious community.
There have been cases of Alawites being killed by radical jihadists who serve the current transitional government. These killings have usually been presented as “eliminations” of criminals in hiding. The situation is aggravated by the presence of a large number of provocateurs and openly criminal elements in the region.
However, despite the existing cases of violence against members of minorities, there are no mass killings, much less genocide, of Alawites, contrary to the statements of a number of information resources associated with the previous regime, as well as some Kurdish and Alawite organizations.
Numerous journalists and representatives of human rights organizations work openly in the country, recording almost all cases of violence, and any acts of mass reprisals would have become known immediately. Just as the names and places of detention of all those arrested after the establishment of the new government became known.
But this does not change the existing problems that Alawite sheikhs pointed out at a meeting with representatives of the transitional government in Tartus in early January.
Ahmad al-Sharaa, through his envoys, tried to reassure the Alawites, stressing that HTS and the transitional government were seeking to protect minorities. In response, the sheikhs declared their support for the transitional phase and their desire to build a just state. They noted that the Assad regime did not represent any sect or faith, and the Alawites should not be held accountable for its crimes: it was a repressive system from which everyone suffered.
The Alawites also demanded that criminals from all sides, not just former supporters of the regime, be held accountable fairly and without discrimination. Incidentally, this demand is absolutely fair.
Of course, everyone is familiar with the mass killings of civilians by Assad's supporters from the so-called shabiha. For example, one can recall the massacre in Houla in May 2012, where more than 100 bodies of civilians were found, including 32 children under 10 years old. The UN Security Council blamed the Syrian government for these events in a corresponding resolution, which was then supported by Russia.
However, the opposition also committed mass killings of civilians, including women and children, during the conflict, and most often the victims were Alawites. Examples include the bloody events in the cities of Arima (Latakia) in August 2013 and Al-Zara (Homs) in May 2016. In both cases, the terrorist group Jabhat al-Nusra, the predecessor of HTS, was involved in the mass killings of Alawite civilians.
Therefore, if we are talking about searching for people who committed particularly serious crimes during the civil war, then this should not concern only the accomplices of the regime; all those responsible should be held accountable.
The Alawites also insist on the eradication of all abuses and violations that occur locally in relation to representatives of individual faiths. They supported the confiscation of weapons from all those who are not in the service of the state, but again drew attention to the fact that the confiscation operations should concern not only representatives of individual sects and faiths (primarily the Alawites), but also all other citizens of Syria, including former members of opposition groups.
Alawite leaders also called on the authorities to prevent decisions that harm social equality, such as arbitrary dismissals or delays in salaries for members of certain faiths.
Thus, over the past month, Syria has not descended into bloody chaos, but the threat of disintegration, followed by a new round of civil war, remains on the agenda. And in this matter, much depends not only on the ability of the various factions of Syrian society to negotiate and the ability of the authorities to keep the radicals in check, but also on the position of international players.