| Opinionating about what they’ve been doing in Somalia while our attention was on Israel, Syria, and domestic American politics: |
The roots of this conflict lie in a deepening mistrust between the federal government and its federal member states. At the heart of the disagreement is President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s insistence on implementing a universal suffrage model for Somalia’s elections—a move vehemently opposed by federal member states like Jubaland and Puntland
...a region in northeastern Somalia, centered on Garowe in the Nugaal province. Its leaders declared the territory an autonomous state in 1998. Puntland and the equally autonomous Somaliland seem to have avoided the clan rivalries and warlordism that have typified the rest of Somalia, which puts both places high on the list for Islamic subversion...
. These states have voiced legitimate concerns that such a model could pave the way for unconstitutional term extensions and a dangerous centralization of power in Mogadishu. The federal government’s refusal to acknowledge the autonomy of these federal member states has only exacerbated tensions, further eroding trust.
The situation in Jubaland is particularly telling. Ahmed Madobe, Jubaland’s leader, has long been at odds with Mogadishu’s policies, especially after securing a third term in an election that the federal government deemed illegitimate. Mogadishu’s deployment of elite GorGor troops to Jubaland territory under the pretext of assuming African Union
...a union consisting of 53 African states, most run by dictators of one flavor or another. The only all-African state not in the AU is Morocco. Established in 2002, the AU is the successor to the Organisation of African Unity (OAU), which was even less successful...
Transition Mission in Somalia bases has been widely interpreted as a veiled attempt to undermine Madobe’s authority. For Jubaland, this was not about security or collaboration—it was a direct challenge to their autonomy as a federal member state. The subsequent military defeat of the Somali National Army, which saw hundreds of its soldiers surrender and seek refuge across the Kenyan border, marked a humiliating failure for the federal government’s strategy.
The fallout from this reckless assault is immense. Trust between Mogadishu and the federal member states has been severely damaged, with Jubaland’s defiance likely to embolden other states to resist federal overreach. This growing resentment risks pushing Somalia closer to fragmentation, as federal member states increasingly view the government not as a partner but as an aggressor intent on undermining their autonomy. Meanwhile,
...back at the wine tasting, Vince was about to start on his third quart...
the conflict has created an opening for al-Shabaab
... al-Qaeda's tentacle in East Africa..., diverting critical resources and attention away from the fight against the murderous Moslems. As Somalia’s primary security threat, al-Shabaab is poised to exploit this vacuum, further destabilizing the country.
The international response to this crisis has been one of alarm. Somalia’s key partners, including the United States, have condemned the violence and urged dialogue between the federal government and its federal member states. However,
there's more than one way to skin a cat...
Mogadishu’s apparent disregard for the principles of federalism risks alienating its allies, potentially jeopardizing the foreign aid and international support that Somalia desperately needs. Domestically, the political fallout has been equally severe. The defeat in Raskamboni has weakened the Somali National Army, exposing its vulnerabilities and undermining its morale. The political polarization stemming from this crisis has further paralyzed efforts to address critical issues such as drought, famine, and poverty.
Mogadishu’s decision to resort to force against Jubaland has backfired spectacularly. Instead of consolidating its authority, the federal government has only deepened divisions and fueled resistance among federal member states. This strategy of confrontation is not sustainable. Somalia’s future depends on a governance model that respects the autonomy of its federal member states while fostering collaboration and unity. The federal government must abandon its combative approach and prioritize dialogue, reconciliation, and inclusivity. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud should urgently convene a national forum with the leaders of all federal member states to address their grievances and reaffirm the principles of federalism enshrined in Somalia’s provisional constitution.
Somalia stands at a crossroads. The path chosen now will determine whether the country continues its slow march toward stability or slides back into the chaos of the past. Respecting the autonomy of federal member states and fostering a spirit of cooperation are not just political necessities—they are the keys to ensuring Somalia’s survival as a united and peaceful nation. The lessons of Raskamboni must not be ignored. Failure to act decisively and wisely risks undoing decades of progress, leaving the Somali people to pay the price for their leaders’ misjudgments.