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Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Damascus Falls. Assad regime is no more, Assad may be dead in plane crash while fleeing Homs
2024-12-08
[X] 48 hour rule in effect




tired reporter didn't post the color code with this map


A 48 hour Special Military Operation?






''Around 2,000 Syrian troops cross to Iraq'' despite govt denies falling back
[GEO.TV] Around 2,000 Syrian troops have crossed the border into Iraq and sought refuge, the mayor of al-Qaim border town Turki al-Mahlawi, told Rooters on Saturday.

Some of the troops were maimed and are currently receiving medical treatment, he added.

Rebels on a lightning advance through Syria said they were nearing Damascus on Saturday, although Bashir al-Assad's government denied that the army had withdrawn from areas around the capital.

"Our forces have begun the final phase of encircling the capital," said rebel commander Hassan Abdel Ghani.

The leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, formerly al-Nusra, before that it was called something else
...al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, from which sprang the Islamic State...
(HTS) told fighters to prepare to take the seat of Assad's government, just over a week into a renewed rebellion in the long dormant conflict.

"Damascus awaits you," said HTS's Ahmed al-Sharaa in a statement on Telegram, using his real name instead of his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani.



Rumint: Assad may have been shot down and killed in his plane while fleeing Homs


A collection of related links:
From Skidmark:
Syrian dictator Bashar Assad flees into exile as Islamist rebels conquer country

From 3dc:
Now link
CaucasusWarReport
@Caucasuswar
Personal opinion: Bashar al-Assad probably fled with his family over the past two days, during his trips to Iran and Russia. The individuals on the IL-76 plane that crashed tonight were likely high-ranking members of the regime.
Be aware that Russia and Iran may attempt to frame the situation as if Assad was on the plane to prevent people from tracking him and his family down.

And then this link
Russian S-300 at Tartus might have just shot Assad's plane out of the sky
Altitude when contact was lost 1750~ ft IVO Khirbet Tin Nur Syria which has an elevation is 1739 ft.

link to video of burning plane that some are claiming had Assad on it

From the Times of Israel liveblog as of 1:00 a.m. ET:
On state TV, Syrian rebels declare Damascus taken, Assad regime ousted, prisoners freed
Syrian rebels announce in a televised statement that they have freed Damascus and overthrown President Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year regime, adding that all prisoners have been released. Assad, who had crushed all forms of dissent and jailed thousands, flew out of Damascus for an unknown destination earlier today, two senior army officers have told Reuters, as rebels entered the capital with no sign of army deployments.

Syrian army command tells officers Assad rule has ended — source

Reports claim Israeli tanks crossing into Syria buffer zone
After the collapse of the Assad regime overnight, Syrian reports claim that Israeli tanks have crossed the border into Syria from the Golan Heights. The unconfirmed reports say that Israeli forces pushed into the buffer zone in the Quneitra area, and launched artillery shelling in the area.

Offering olive branch, Syrian PM says he’ll work with any leader backed by citizens
Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali says he is ready to “cooperate” with any leadership chosen by the people and for any handover process, after the apparent fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime.

“This country can be a normal country that builds good relations with its neighbors and the world… but this issue is up to any leadership chosen by the Syrian people. We are ready to cooperate with [that leadership] and offer all possible facilities,” Jalali says in a speech broadcast on his Facebook account.

Assad rule in Syria has ended, rebels say, as army appears to disband
Syria’s army command has notified officers that President Bashar al-Assad’s rule has ended following a lightning rebel offensive, a Syrian officer who was informed of the move tells Reuters.

Syrian rebels also say Damascus is “now free of Assad,” calling on Syrians abroad to return to their newly freed country.

An Associated Press journalist in Damascus reports seeing groups of armed civilians along the road in the outskirts of the capital and hearing sounds of gunshots. The city’s main police headquarters appeared to be abandoned, its door left ajar with no officers outside, they say.

Another AP journalist shoots footage of an abandoned army checkpoint where uniforms are discarded on the ground under a poster of Assad’s face.

Hezbollah pulling forces out of Damascus outskirts and from Homs, sending some to Latakia, others to Hermel area in Lebanon

Hezbollah retreats from key city on Syria-Lebanon border, in major blow to group
Lebanon’s pro-Iranian Hezbollah terror group has withdrawn from the Syrian city of Qusayr along the border with Lebanon shortly, before rebel forces seized it, Syrian army sources say.The city had been a key holding for Hezbollah, which relies on a nearby crossing to smuggle Iranian weapons into Lebanon and fighters in and out of Syria since the terror group seized Qusayr in 2013 at the early phase of the Syrian conflict.

The Syrian sources tell Reuters at least 150 armored vehicles carrying hundreds of Hezbollah fighters left Qusayr in phases. Israel, which has repeatedly hit Hezbollah weapons depots and underground fortifications it had built in the city, hit one of the convoys that was leaving, one source says, without elaborating.

Earlier, the Hezbollah-linked al-Manar network reported that Israeli planes had carried out an attack in the area Qusayr. The Israel Defense Forces said Friday it had bombed several roads in the Qusayr area as part of a concerted campaign to stymie attempts to smuggle Iranian weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

From a Times of Israel analysis published shortly before Damascus fell:
As the rebels advanced this past week, Syrian forces appeared to melt away, putting up no resistance, with several reports of defection. Russian forces carried out occasional airstrikes.

Aron Lund, a Syria expert with Century International, a New York-based think tank, and a researcher with the Swedish Defense Research Agency, said the developments in Syria are a geopolitical disaster for Russia and Iran.

“They too were surely surprised by what happened, and they have all sorts of resource constraints,” including Russia’s war in Ukraine and Hezbollah’s losses in Lebanon and Syria.

EXHAUSTED AND BROKEN
While Syria’s conflict lines have been largely stalemated since 2020, the country’s economic woes have only multiplied in the past few years.

The imposition of US sanctions, a banking crisis in neighboring Lebanon, and an earthquake last year contributed to the fact that almost all Syrians face extreme financial hardship.

That has caused state institutions and salaries to wither.

“If you can’t pay your soldiers a living wage, then maybe you can’t expect them to stay and fight when thousands of Islamists storm” their cities, Lund said. “It is just an exhausted, broken and dysfunctional regime” to start with.

Part of the insurgents’ attempt to reassert their grip on Aleppo, the city where they were ousted in 2016 after a grueling military campaign, was to issue a call to government soldiers and security agencies to defect, granting them what they called “protection cards,” which offer some sort of amnesty and assurances that they won’t be hunted down.

The spokesman for the insurgents, Hassan Abdul-Ghani, said more than 1,600 soldiers have applied for the cards over two days in Aleppo city.

Hundreds of defectors lined up outside city police stations Thursday to register their details with the insurgents.

Hama native Hossam al-Bakr, 33, who served in Damascus and defected four years earlier to Aleppo, said he came to “settle his position” and get a new ID.

The laminated card handed out to each defector was titled the “defection card.” It showed the name, ID number, and place of service of each defector. It is issued by “The General Command: Military Operations Room.”

On Thursday, Maj. Mohamed Ghoneim, who was in charge of registering the defectors, said more than 1,000 soldiers or police officers came to register. Some who had their official guns handed them over, he added.

“There are thousands who want to apply,” he said.

Posted by:DarthVader

#20  I think it was Obama who broke it. Erdogan is attempting to pick up the pieces. Here's hoping he gets his fingers burned.
Posted by: Abu Uluque   2024-12-08 20:10  

#19  Turkey is the major backer of HTS. Turkey broke it, Turkey owns it.
Posted by: The Walking Unvaxed   2024-12-08 19:31  

#18  22K feet in 8 seconds

Quite a ROD there. You'd have to, um...

Four miles above Wile E. Coyote
A contrail crawled, peaceful and floaty.
Cue long johns (Johns Manville),
A rocket, and anvil
(not counting the weight of peyote).
Posted by: Pancho Poodle8452   2024-12-08 17:04  

#17   ^ I might add though, Obama never needed Syria or the Russians to make him look stupid. He does that quite well all by himself.
Posted by: Abu Uluque   2024-12-08 16:27  

#16  Syria’s sudden uprising is a stark reminder of Obama’s failed foreign policy

From the link:
President-elect Donald Trump seems dead set to put Syria in the rearview mirror during his second term, referring to the country as the place “where former President Obama refused to honor his commitment of protecting the RED LINE IN THE SAND, and all hell broke out, with Russia stepping in.”

“There was never much of a benefit in Syria for Russia, other than to make Obama look really stupid,” Trump continued. “In any event, Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, and THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”
Posted by: Abu Uluque   2024-12-08 16:26  

#15  Re #13: and if you can't trust Russian state media, who can you trust?
Posted by: Rambler   2024-12-08 14:07  

#14  Perhaps a family member with a plane full of cash and documents too bulky for the land E&E? Linked video gives a pretty good insight into the level of storage for important things now obviously removed in some haste!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1865454268628484531
Posted by: NoMoreBS   2024-12-08 13:45  

#13  Assad is in Moscow after fleeing Syria and will be given aslyum, Russian state media reports
Posted by: Skidmark   2024-12-08 13:04  

#12  What happened to Steiner's counterattack?
Posted by: Youngest Fossil on Rantburg   2024-12-08 10:05  

#11  Could have been a decoy. Smart money would have been on an overland E&E days ago.
Posted by: Besoeker   2024-12-08 08:34  

#10  re #8: Mark Toth - "News in #Syria happening faster than I can post.

If this was indeed #Assad’s plane, then there was no surviving whatever happened to it.

As the son & grandson of commercial & military aviators, I can assure you the #IL76 isn’t designed to drop 22K feet in 8 seconds"
Posted by: Frank G   2024-12-08 08:28  

#9  Iran's (Damascus) embassy was also stormed by Syrian rebels, Iran's English-language Press TV reported.

Karma, bitches
Posted by: Frank G   2024-12-08 08:00  

#8  
Posted by: badanov   2024-12-08 07:47  

#7  Assad's 'slaughterhouse' prisons give up their secrets: Rebels advance on notorious 'industrial torture chamber'
Posted by: Skidmark   2024-12-08 03:33  

#6  #4 Out of Syria, on to Chuchonistan!
Posted by: Grom the Reflective   2024-12-08 02:11  

#5  US Intelligence predicted the Assad regime fall months ago.
Posted by: Besoeker   2024-12-08 01:08  

#4  ^^ By God, you're right. It has been 80 years since the last failed invasion of Russia.

The time is ripe for yet another failed attempt by the west to destroy Russia.

...

You don't seem to get it. Russia already has won its war. It's over now save for the treaty the signifies its end.
Posted by: badanov   2024-12-08 00:54  

#3   Video link to hanging of an Assad relative?
Posted by: 3dc   2024-12-08 00:51  

#2  Russia shown as weak overseas, Iran lost the land bridge to supply Hezbollah. even though the rebels are most likely little better, a good day for Israel.

If Georgia throws off the Russian yoke, Russia will be little more than a joke and ripe for pushing to collapse.
Posted by: DarthVader   2024-12-08 00:43  

#1  wow

Nov 29 Aleppo taken;
Dec 5 Hama taken;
Dec 6 Homs taken;
Dec 8 Damascus taken
Posted by: Lord Garth   2024-12-08 00:08  

00:00