...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for
spontaneouslytaking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet
militiasto extend the regime's influence. The word
Iranis a cognate form of
Aryan.The abbreviation
IRGCis the same idea as
Stürmabteilung (or SA).The term
Supreme Guideis a the modern version form of either
Duceor
Führeror maybe both. They hate
is abandoning its Syrian ally following rapid gains made by Islamist rebel forces, who are now closing in on the capital Damascus.
''Iran is starting to evacuate its forces and military personnel because we cannot fight as an advisory and support force if Syria's army itself does not want to fight,'' a prominent advisor to the Iranian regime, Mehdi Rahmati, told the New York Times
...which still proudly claims Walter Duranty's Pulitzer prize...
''The bottom line,'' he said, ''is that Iran has realized that it cannot manage the situation in Syria right now with any military operation and this option is off the table.''
The unspoken reason Iran is leaving Syria is that Israel smashed Iran's proxy Hezbollah, fatally weakening its ability to carry out operations outside of Leb
...an Iranian satrapy until recently ruled by Hassan Nasrallah situated on the eastern Mediterranean, conveniently adjacent to Israel. Formerly inhabited by hardy Phoenecian traders, its official language is now Arabic, with the usual unpleasant side effects. The Leb civil war, between 1975 and 1990, lasted a little over 145 years and produced 120,000 fatalities. The average length of a ceasefire was measured in seconds. The Lebs maintain a precarious sectarian balance among Shiites, Sunnis, and about a dozen flavors of Christians, plus Armenians, Georgians, and who knows what else? It is the home of the original Hezbollah, which periodically starts a war with the Zionist Entity, gets Beirut pounded to rubble, and then declares victory and has a parade. The Lebs have the curious habit of periodically murdering their heads of state or prime ministers...Significantly, Iran is pulling out its powerful Quds Force and other Revolutionary Guards units. They see the writing on the wall, and know that Syrian President Bashir al-Assad is doomed.
Assad still has his Russian ally, but President Vladimir Putin
...President-for-Life of Russia. He gets along well with other presidents for life. He is credited with bringing political stability and re-establishing something like the rule of law, which occasionally results in somebody dropping dead from poisoning by polonium or other interesting substance. Under Putin, a new group of business magnates controlling significant swathes of Russia's economy has emerged, all of whom have close personal ties to him. The old bunch, without close personal ties to Putin, are in jail or in exile or dead from poisoning by polonium or other interesting substances...
is extremely unlikely to send ground forces to Syria while he's heavily engaged in Ukraine. The Russian Air Force can help, but Assad needs boots on the ground to fight the Islamists.
More from Defence Blog:
Damascus on the brink of collapse
By Dylan Malyasov
Dec 7, 2024
Modified date: Dec 7, 2024
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is marshaling all available military forces and resources to fortify Damascus, his government’s final stronghold, as opposition forces make significant territorial gains. The battle for Syria’s capital appears to be escalating toward a critical juncture.
Reports from the ground indicate that opposition forces have seized control of Daraa and reached the city center of Homs, although the latter has yet to be fully captured.
Meanwhile, Assad’s regime has pulled back from key positions in Deir ez-Zor, Suwayd, and Mashara village in central Quneitra, leaving strategic areas vulnerable to opposition advances.
The Southern Operations Room of the Syrian opposition has announced ambitious plans to push toward Damascus. “Our target is Damascus, and our meeting point is Umayyad Square,” the group’s spokesperson declared in a recent statement. This unified opposition effort has already led to substantial territorial gains, particularly along Syria’s southern border with Jordan, where insurgent forces now control roughly half the frontier.
This surge from the south has exposed the Assad regime’s vulnerabilities. Local uprisings and insurgent activity have destabilized areas long considered under regime control. Rebel forces’ swift advances have reportedly faced little resistance, with regime-aligned police and isolated military outposts proving ineffective in halting the offensive.
Read the rest at the link
Even More from Boris Rozhin:
The Collapse of Syria
It is unlikely that Bashar al-Assad's government will survive until next weekend.
Damascus may fall in the next 24 (maximum 48) hours.
There is no serious interaction between the Syrian army and the Syrian security forces, as well as no serious resistance. In fact, the Syrian security forces are not defending their own country. Individual exceptions only emphasize the picture of general disintegration. It is no longer so important whether everything fell apart on its own or whether there was betrayal somewhere - the fact itself is important. Syria in its previous form is living out its last days. If any assistance was planned, it simply will not be in time - the Syrian army and state are disintegrating as quickly as possible.
Russia will have to solve the following issues:
1. Preservation of its military bases in Latakia.
2. Evacuation of its citizens and military from Damascus.
3. General minimization of consequences and costs.
Iran is effectively left without the land corridor that Soleimani built in 2017. This is a strategic defeat.
My emphasis
Syria will most likely face a long war on the ruins of the state in the style of Libya and Afghanistan. Millions of refugees and terrorists spreading across the region are included.
Relying on the captured areas of Syria, radical Islamism will certainly give its ugly shoots in many countries. Including here, it will try.
Yet more from Boris Rozhin:
On the situation in Syria. 12/07/2024
The situation in Syria continues to develop according to the most negative scenario.
The Assad government continues to lose territory without significant resistance, the army is in a semi-decayed state. Organized resistance of individual units does not change the overall bleak picture. It is very likely that Syria in its familiar form will soon cease to exist and will be directly or indirectly divided, and its territory will repeat the fate of Afghanistan and Libya.
The probable loss of Homs can significantly accelerate the processes of disintegration of the state apparatus and the remaining state logistics.
At the same time, Russia risks losing its bases in Latakia (which will affect both the positions of the Russian Federation in the Middle East and operations in Africa, which, among other things, relied on Khmeimim), and Iran is actually on the verge of losing its land corridor (Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon), which was Iran's main conquest in the Syrian war. All this will seriously change the alignment of forces in the Middle East.