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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran | ||||||||
| Having failed to defeat Hezbollah in battle, Israel is looking for apostates and dividing Lebanon | ||||||||
| 2024-11-20 | ||||||||
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Dmitry Polyakov [REGNUM] A month and a half after the start of the ground operation in Lebanon, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced the start of the second stage. The main goal is to destroy Hezbollah's missile potential. The Israeli army has made its largest attempt to break into its northern neighbor's territory. At the same time, the Jewish state continues to carry out daily airstrikes on the "land of cedars." Not only the border areas in the south are under fire, but also the Bekaa Valley and the suburbs of Beirut. However, behind the military component of the operation there are other aspects. BETTING ON COLLABORATION As a result of Israeli bombing in the border zone of Lebanon, more than 40 thousand residential buildings in almost 40 settlements have already been destroyed.
But Israel may also have other reasons for leaving Christian cities untouched. One of the stated goals of the ground operation is to create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon.
It is noteworthy that many of the AJL commanders came from the cities of Rmesh, Dbel and Ain Ebel, which remain untouched today. In addition, it is known that the inhabitants of Marun ar-Ras and Klaia collaborated with Israel. It is quite possible that today the Jewish state is again returning to the tactics of interaction with the Maronite population. And there are some prerequisites for this. Currently, Lebanese society is extremely polarized. There is no single position on the Israeli invasion. One part of the citizens supports the continuation of the resistance, while the other blames Hezbollah for the conflict and supports its disarmament, as well as negotiations with Israel. This position is most often taken by supporters of right-wing nationalist parties, dominated by the Maronite Kataeb and Lebanese Forces. Moreover, during the Lebanese civil war (1975–1990), prominent Maronite families such as Gemayel and Chamoun briefly collaborated with the Jewish state to achieve their own political goals. Israel’s bet on the Maronites may therefore be a well-founded move. DESTABILIZATION STRATEGY Israel's current actions are aimed not only at inflicting a military defeat on Hezbollah, but also at significantly reducing support for the movement. This strategy is being implemented through the internal destabilization of its northern neighbor. The systematic bombing of southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley and the suburbs of Beirut suggests that Israel is seeking to displace more than a million Shiites, which in turn is expected to lead to social tensions in the "Land of the Cedars." Already, about half a million Lebanese have fled the war to neighboring Syria, and almost 900,000 to the interior of the country. This has immediately caused tensions within Lebanese society. In addition, Israel has also begun to strike Shiite areas in cities where the majority of the population is made up of members of other faiths, which makes them see Shiites as a threat to their security.
Another goal the Jewish state likely wants to achieve through its attacks is to reduce support for Hezbollah within Shiite society.
However, it is the southerners who have suffered the most in the current conflict. In order not to lose their support, the Party of God is allocating small compensation: $300 for a family of four and $100 for each adult male.
Another consequence of the Israeli operation was the deepening of differences between Hezbollah's allies. First, tensions increased between Hezbollah and Amal. Following the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, Amal Secretary General Nabih Berri called for an unconditional ceasefire. His position was supported by Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Druze leader Walid "Wally" Jumblatt. All three agreed to a cessation of hostilities and the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls for the disarmament of Hezbollah and the redeployment of the Lebanese army to the south of the country. Secondly, Gebran Bassil, the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, another Hezbollah partner in the March 8 Coalition, also criticized the Shiite party. In his opinion, the “united fronts” strategy chosen by the “Axis of Resistance,” which implies the unification of all pro-Iranian forces against Israel, was a fatal mistake. It is noticeable that as the conflict grows, Hezbollah's domestic political partners are increasingly distancing themselves from it and advocating for a ceasefire rather than continued resistance. In the current circumstances, the Party of God will be forced to either take their position into account and not put forward excessive conditions in the negotiations, or it will remain in the minority. Thus, the current Israeli ground operation pursues several goals at once, and the military aspect is only one of them. In a month and a half of military action, the Jewish state was unable to destroy Hezbollah's military potential. However, it managed to change the conditions in which the Shiite movement exercised its power. Lebanese society is becoming increasingly divided. Hezbollah is losing support among both its political partners and its supporters. Moreover, it no longer has control over the entire south of the country. These factors, rather than military superiority, may be decisive in the current conflict.
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| Posted by:badanov |