by Sergey Adamov
[REGNUM] The Russian army is close to achieving one of the goals of the SVO - the complete liberation of Donbas. Ukrainian troops are forced to retreat along the entire line of contact, while the Russian Armed Forces are increasing the pace of the offensive that began a year ago.
In the fall of 2023, the decisive assault on Avdeevka, the last major fortified area of the Ukrainian Armed Forces located in close proximity to Donetsk, began. With the fall of the city and the retreat, Ukrainian troops were unable to organize a stable line of defense. The defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was consistently broken through along the Durnaya and Vovchya rivers, as well as along the so-called "Poroshenko Line" - a system of fortifications created back in 2015.
By the beginning of autumn 2024, the pace of the Russian troops' advance had increased: in September-October, the Russian Armed Forces occupied more territory than in the whole of 2023. Moreover, in the last week of October, the Russian army took control of the largest area of territory in the entire period of military operations, reports the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
In addition, analysts note that in August 2024, the Russian army took control of 478 square kilometers in Donbas. Such a pace of advance was last recorded in March 2022.
As a result, Ukrainian troops retreated to the city of Pokrovsk, trying to organize defense in its suburbs - the villages of Novogrodovka, Grodovka, Selidovo and Ukrainsk. However, again unsuccessfully. Now the Ukrainian Armed Forces are preparing for a battle for Pokrovsk itself - their last stronghold in the western part of Donbas.
According to the latest information, engineering equipment is being brought into the Pokrovsk area, Ukrainian troops are digging trenches, blocking city streets with minefields and "dragon's teeth". At the same time, the Russian army can bypass the city and cut the enemy's defense into separate fragments.
"In Avdeevka and other areas, we do not give them the opportunity to create a monolithic defense. As a rule, the Ukrainian Armed Forces fortify themselves in industrial zones and urban areas, but we do not storm them head-on, but rather we wedge ourselves into weak spots at the junction of fortified areas and force them to retreat. This tactic has been well-developed and can be used in the future," an informed source in the region told Regnum.
Success in the Avdeevka-Pokrovsk direction predictably led to the Ukrainian troops also leaving Ugledar, a city that allowed the Ukrainian Armed Forces to maintain control over a large area of territory southwest of Donetsk.
In general, Ukrainian troops are now less and less likely to cling to populated areas and are increasingly rolling back without offering serious resistance.
According to Ukrainian media, in light of the recent failures, the Ukrainian Armed Forces Command “recommended” the military not to use the words “retreat,” “withdrawal,” or the expressions “the enemy has wedged in” or “we had to abandon our positions” when speaking to the media. Instead, the military is being asked to talk only about successes, “stabilization” of the front line, and counterattacks.
However, it cannot be said that over the past months the Ukrainian Armed Forces have tried to counterattack only in the press.
KURSK ADVENTURE
In August, the Ukrainian Armed Forces command decided on a risky offensive and opening a new front in the Kursk region. Ukrainian troops entered the territory of the Sudzhansky district and tried to occupy the largest possible area as quickly as possible.
Elite units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were involved in this operation, including units of marines and airborne troops, equipped with the best Western-made armored vehicles: Leopard 2 tanks, Stryker and Bradley armored vehicles, and other equipment.
However, the breakthrough was quickly stopped, after which Russian troops began to push the enemy out of the Kursk region. The Ukrainian Armed Forces miscalculated by relying on weapons supplied by NATO countries, military expert Alexander Mikhailovsky told the Regnum news agency.
"As we can see, Kiev's bet on a miracle weapon did not work out again. The wheeled armored vehicles sent to the Kursk region turned out to be too heavy for off-road conditions and were unable to maneuver actively. As a result, the advancing forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were left without armored support, and the breakthrough was stopped. So Kiev will be wary of planning such operations in the border area or on the line of combat contact in the future," the expert is sure.
The F-16 fighters transferred to Kyiv, which were planned to be used to gain dominance in the skies, and in the future - to strike at Russian territory, did not bring success to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. F-16s did not appear near the front, moreover, it is known that one of the fighters crashed "for technical reasons."
As a result, the few American-made aircraft were relocated to airfields in the western regions of the country - away from Russian fighters and air defense systems.
During the raid into the Kursk region, Ukrainian troops suffered heavy losses among motivated and qualified soldiers, Mikhailovsky notes. Kyiv had kept these forces in reserve since the spring of 2024, intending to use them in a counteroffensive in one of the critical areas. As a result, the front in Donbass was left without support and, as expected, began to collapse.
WHAT AFTER DONBASS
If we leave aside the operation in the Kursk region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces, after the loss of Avdiivka, did not make a single serious attempt to turn the situation at the front in their favor.
At various times, it was assumed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces could either try to break through again in the Zaporizhzhya direction, or try to attack in the north of the LPR, or counterattack Russian troops advancing from Avdiivka.
But the reserves for the offensive, formed in the spring and summer of 2024, were lost in the Kursk region or scattered across separate sections of the front. Kyiv was unable to create a powerful strike force. With the arrival of autumn rains and muddy roads, Ukrainian troops will lose their last opportunity to counterattack - until the spring of next year. At the same time, the Russian army, of course, will not wait for the weather to give Kyiv the opportunity to attack.
"In strategic terms, we see a complete loss of initiative by Ukrainian troops. Attempts to turn the situation to their advantage have failed, counterattacks in Donbass are being repelled with losses for the enemy. The current situation for Kiev can be described as a systemic crisis. Not a collapse yet, but somewhere close," believes Alexander Mikhailovsky.
He notes that in recent weeks, Kyiv has launched another wave of mobilization, which has caused a storm of discontent in Ukrainian society and the media. In response, the Ukrainian leadership has introduced criminal penalties for documenting cases of the use of force by the military, catching recruits on the streets, in shopping malls and other public places.
But, the source of IA Regnum adds, even if mobilization allows for the necessary number of recruits, they will be able to go to the front in a month at best. By that time, reinforcements may simply be late.
Foreign media outlets also report on the grave situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, according to which Kyiv is beginning to prepare the Zaporizhzhya and Dnipropetrovsk regions for defense. Pokrovsk and the large Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration are still under the control of Ukrainian troops in Donbass. However, given the trends of the last year, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will not be able to hold this last line of defense.