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Home Front: WoT

Saving Face: How US Leaks Devalued Israel's Strike on Iran

2024-10-27

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Leonid Tsukanov

[REGNUM] Tel Aviv gathered its forces

Learn your political geography, Mr. Tsukanov: the capitol of Israel is Jerusalem, not Tel Aviv, and has been so since Israel declared independence in 1948. All the Jew-hating part of the world pretending otherwise will not change that fact.

and carried out a long-awaited and announced operation - on the night of October 26, the Israeli Air Force carried out a series of strikes on targets in Tehran, Karaj and Eslamshahr; echoes of the attacks were heard in Mashhad and Hamadan. Iranian air defense facilities deployed in Syria were also hit.

However, the Israeli operation was emphatically restrained and demonstrative. This suggests that the strike on Iranian territory was more an attempt to save face than a full-fledged revenge on Tehran.

Or possibly it was Israel’s first step in shaping the battlefield to come: Iran no longer has radar arrays to give notice of incoming Israeli bombers, nor factories mixing the propellent for its surface-to-surface missiles. And national morale will suffer for having to sit under the Israeli attack without being able to answer it — how shocking that Allah permitted such abuse of his most beloved believers!

According to CBS, the Israeli attack was limited to military targets, with nuclear and oil facilities untouched.

…as demanded by the Biden-Harris administration.

In turn, the Iranian Armed Forces reported only two dead soldiers.

However, today's attack is unlikely to be the last. On the contrary, Tel Aviv will probably continue to prepare new operations in the Iranian direction.

It could happen…

At the same time, Israel will gradually strive for even greater autonomy from the United States in making military and political decisions, since detailed information about its plans became public the day before due to the fault of the Americans.

Under the current administration, that seems likely.

In mid-October, scanned copies of secret US Defense Department reports appeared on a number of pro-Iranian channels. The documents, accompanied by images from American military satellites, contained detailed information about the transfer of Israeli forces to the "front lines" in preparation for an anti-Iranian retaliatory operation.

Such an untimely leak damaged relations between Washington and ~~Tel Aviv~~ Jerusalem and deprived the Israeli army of the element of surprise. Although the Israelis tried, albeit without much success, to finish what they had started by launching a series of strikes on Iranian territory.

In addition, the leak has fueled "spy mania" in both countries. In Israel and the US, there are calls to "untangle" the Iranian intelligence network and punish those responsible. Especially since one of the persons involved in the investigation was previously suspected of "friendship" with the IRGC.

However, it should not be ruled out that the Israelis this time suffered not so much from the activities of Iranian agents, but at the hands of those wishing to use “inquisitorial” methods for career advancement.

INFORMATION LEAKED
Based on leaked Pentagon data, pro-Iranian channels have already presented a fairly complete picture of the future Israeli “retaliatory action.” The movement of at least 40 ballistic missiles from their permanent bases to the Ramat David (northern direction) and Ramon (southern direction) air bases was recorded. At least 16 more Golden Horizon missiles were delivered to the Hatzerim air base in Israel’s Southern District.

In addition, data received from American satellites indicated that Israeli aircrew had stepped up their training in ultra-low altitude flights. The G-550 AWACS aircraft and Boeing 707 tankers were also involved in the maneuvers, which goes beyond simple “accounting sorties.”

Activity at the Haifa naval base has sharply increased, with sporadic movement of the Israeli navy beginning, which was also seen as preparation for a combined attack.

Everything indicated that the Israelis had no plans to abandon their usual route through the airspace of Syria and Jordan towards Iraq, from where it would be most convenient to launch missiles at Iranian targets.

At the same time, the Iranians were unable to draw any clear conclusions about which objects would be hit based on American materials. According to preliminary data, energy facilities (including nuclear facilities), army infrastructure, and the IRGC were in the probable strike zone.

In reality, the night operation involved far fewer forces and resources than the American satellites “revealed”: the demonstration of retaliation turned out to be more important to the Israelis than the retaliation itself.

THE STRUGGLE FOR POSITIONS
After the scandal with the leaks that cost Israel the element of surprise from the attack, Washington became preoccupied with finding the culprits. The main suspects almost immediately included Ariane Tabatabaei,

…alternately spelt Ariane Tabatabai…

an American of Iranian origin who is an employee of the staff of advisers to Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin and specializes in low-intensity conflicts.

At one time, Tabatabaei was part of the US-Iran negotiating team and was engaged in restructuring the "nuclear deal" project to suit the conditions of the Joe Biden administration. However, her diplomatic work did not last long. After a conflict with the head of the negotiating team, Tabatabaei left it and took the position of senior political adviser in the Department of Defense.

It is noteworthy that Tabatabaei has come under the scrutiny of American security forces for the second time in the last few years. Before that, in 2023, they tried to accuse her of creating a network of small informants who supplied Iranian intelligence with information about the activities of US government agencies, as well as about the Pentagon's military and technical projects. However, due to the lack of hard evidence, the case fell apart. At the same time, Tabatabaei's career in the US Department of Defense continued.

Most likely, it was the scandal of 2023 that provoked increased attention to the person of Austin's adviser from American law enforcement. However, there are also those who call for "unwinding" the investigation further.

Thus, the "gray cardinal" of the leak scandal is called the former US State Department employee Robert Malley, who worked on the "Iranian direction" during the administrations of Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Allegedly, it was he who at one time facilitated Tabatabai's employment and her rise to high positions.

Detractors recall that Malley was dismissed from service in 2023 due to “mishandling classified materials.”

Such vague wording usually conceals accusations of trading in sensitive information.

Given the ongoing fight for lucrative positions within the State Department and the Pentagon (which has intensified many times over in the wake of the upcoming US presidential elections), Tabatabai could well have become a bargaining chip. In that case, a controlled leak of classified documents would simultaneously discredit both her and Malley, and deprive the latter of the opportunity to slip out of the FBI's sight.

US security agencies are still being rather stingy with the details of the high-profile case, but their statements already suggest that at least three employees of the defense department are under investigation. It is possible that this list will expand as the chains of communication are unraveled.

ISRAEL BLAMES THE US
Despite the fact that the Israeli leadership denied the fact of the data leak for a long time and called what was happening an “internal matter” of the United States, after the United States officially confirmed the authenticity of the leaked documents, ~~Tel Aviv~~ Jerusalem was forced to admit that the retaliatory operation had been discredited.

It is clear from the tone of Israeli officials that the incident has dealt a blow to relations between ~~Tel Aviv~~ Jerusalem and Washington. First of all, the Israelis are asking two questions: why did the US conduct such detailed monitoring of the preparation of the anti-Iranian operation and why were they unable to ensure the safety of such valuable data?

And the second question quickly came to the fore. ~~Tel Aviv~~ Jerusalem, which had previously suffered from a series of minor spy scandals involving Iranian agents directly on the country's territory, reacts extremely painfully to the miscalculations of its allies, especially when they strike at Israeli strategic interests.

In this case, the appearance of "Tehran informants" in high offices is perceived as nothing less than the degradation of the American military machine. This idea runs through the publications of the Israeli government press like a red thread. Benjamin Netanyahu's cabinet is effectively placing responsibility on the United States not only for the failure of the retaliatory operation, but also for the growth of Iran's activity in general.

At the same time, Tehran’s role in what happened is deliberately maximized: according to the interpretation of a number of publications, the Iranian leadership coordinated the operation in Washington “in manual mode.”

Of course, the leaks incident is unlikely to lead to a freeze in US-Israel cooperation. In this case, the US risks finding itself in a situation where the White House's "red lines" in the Middle East will not be immutable for ~~Tel Aviv~~ Jerusalem.

Posted by:badanov

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