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| The Grand Turk |
| 'True Friend': Erdogan Visits Serbs, But Gives Drones to Kosovo |
| 2024-10-14 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Kirill Semenov [REGNUM] Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan paid an official visit to Serbia on October 11, where he held talks with President Aleksandar Vucic. The leaders of the two countries discussed regional issues, the situation in the Balkans, as well as the Middle East and Ukraine. Erdogan stressed the importance of maintaining stability in Bosnia and Herzegovina and called for a constructive approach in relations between Serbia and Kosovo. The Turkish leader emphasized the need for a conscious approach to tensions between Serbia and Kosovo and the resolution of all contradictions (naturally, with the mediation of Ankara) and noted the importance of maintaining stability in Bosnia and Herzegovina. During the visit, 11 interstate agreements were signed and the 4th meeting of the Supreme Council was held, where bilateral relations, especially the economy and trade, were discussed. At the final press conference, Erdogan noted that Serbian-Turkish relations are experiencing a "golden age." Trade turnover between the countries has exceeded $2 billion for the second year in a row. Ankara and Belgrade intend to increase it to $5 billion, and Turkish investments in Serbia have grown from $1 million to $405 million over the past 12 years. Ankara continues to strengthen its economic presence in Serbia: there are already about 3,300 Turkish companies operating here, 21 of which are manufacturing companies. The possibilities of mutual trips on internal passports were also discussed, which should increase the tourist flow. Serbian citizens can already travel to Turkey without foreign passports. Particular attention was paid to the situation in Palestine. "It is necessary to put an end to the attacks of the Israeli leadership, which trample on human dignity," the Turkish leader said. He called on the international community to recognize a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders. An important aspect of the talks was cooperation in the defense industry. Erdogan and Vucic noted the great prospects for cooperation in this area. "The Turkish military industry is much stronger than ours," Vucic said at a joint press conference." But, without false modesty, we cannot be ignored either. Within this framework, I see scope for great cooperation." The military cooperation talks likely included the Bayraktar drones, which Belgrade abandoned last year after Ankara provided five to Kosovo's security forces. During his visit to Albania on Thursday, Erdogan said he would also give the Balkan country an unspecified number of Bayraktars "so that no one would dare attack it." Asked whether joint military-industrial cooperation with Serbia would include the production of Bayraktar drones, Erdogan replied: “Serbia has certain capabilities, we have certain capabilities, and as friendly countries we can develop our capabilities together.” KOSOVO IS NOT A HINDRANCE Although Türkiye unconditionally supported Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence from Serbia in 2008, Erdogan is a proponent of a constructive, balanced approach that also respects Serbian interests in the region. Back in 2013, when he was prime minister, his statement that “Kosovo is Turkey and Turkey is Kosovo” drew sharp criticism in Belgrade. Ten years later, Aleksandar Vucic sees Erdogan as an actor who can “help maintain stability in northern Kosovo” and a “true friend” of Serbia. Indeed, despite different views on the status of Kosovo, relations between Belgrade and Ankara have improved significantly over the past decade and are developing steadily. At the meeting of the presidents in 2019, the head of Turkey already called Serbia a friendly country. During his visit to Belgrade in September 2022, special attention was paid to economic issues. Turkey, despite the difficult situation in its own economy and the unstable exchange rate of the lira, was able to make efforts to increase trade turnover not only with Serbia, but also with the countries of the region as a whole. Thus, the relations between Turkey and Serbia are very dynamic, and the personal relations of their leaders can be described as friendly. Ankara is traditionally seen as an ally of Balkan Muslims, including Albanians. However, this does not mean that Turkey will unconditionally support, say, Bosnian Muslims or Albanians against Serbs simply because of some “historical principles.” On the contrary, Turkish policy in the Balkans is very pragmatic and balanced and far from the ideological labels such as “Great Turan” or “Neo-Ottomanism”. And Erdogan’s current Balkan tour also confirms this. Let us recall that he arrived in Serbia from Albania, a traditional Turkish ally in the region. And, of course, the fact that the Turkish leader opened a new mosque there is an important ideological symbol of the continuity of the Ottoman presence in the Balkans. However, the signed agreements and growing trade turnover with Serbia indicate that other aspects of Turkey's activities in the region, beyond ideological principles, are of no less, if not greater, importance. Ankara aims to become one of the most influential foreign players in the Balkans and therefore has many factors to consider. It already plays a major role in conflicts ranging from Syria and Libya to Ukraine, often imposing solutions through force. Since the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, organized by the European Union, has not led to a complete easing of tensions in northern Kosovo, Erdogan sees a window of opportunity for further mediation in this conflict as well. The “Turkish party” deserved special attention against the backdrop of the next crisis in Kosovo in 2022–2023, where it would seem that Erdogan should traditionally side with the Albanians and Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti against the ethnic Serb minority in northern Kosovo. However, Ankara extended a hand to Kurti primarily against the backdrop of his confrontation with the United States, and not because of contradictions with the Serbs. At that time, Washington tried to tear Vucic away from Russia by making concessions to the Serbian side, while simultaneously putting pressure on the authorities of the partially recognized Kosovo. Erdogan intervened in the situation largely at the request of the Kosovo authorities, but did so to spite the Americans and in such a way that Serbia had no reason to be dissatisfied with the Turkish mediation. From the very beginning of the crisis, the Turkish president held talks with both the Kosovo Prime Minister and President Vucic, calling for dialogue. And in the summer of 2023, in agreement with the authorities of both sides, a Turkish military contingent was deployed in northern Kosovo. About 500 soldiers and officers from the 65th Mechanized Brigade of the Turkish Army formed the bulk of the NATO reinforcements in the north of the province. Therefore, on the one hand, the Turkish military deployment in Kosovo underlines Ankara’s status as a mediator, and on the other hand, it is a way of Turkey’s military return to the Balkans and a clear example of NATO using its instrument of play on the Balkan field. Strengthening the Turkish military presence in Kosovo will undoubtedly help Ankara strengthen its position in the region, especially now that the West is busy helping the Kyiv regime. At the same time, it will help Erdogan position himself as an impartial partner for both Belgrade and Pristina. BOSNIAN QUESTION In turn, Turkey's official position on the sore "Bosnian issue" boils down to the need for peaceful coexistence between Bosnian Muslims and the Republic of Srpska. The Turkish president is trying to prevent the situation from escalating or the republic from separating from Bosnia and Herzegovina. In September 2022, Erdogan rushed to the country to hold talks with the Presidency Council "triumvirate" as tensions between Bosniaks and Serbs rose in the country. This followed a statement by Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik opposing a law banning the denial of the Bosnian genocide. The Turkish president was trying to cement his status as a peacemaker in the country as well. It is significant that a year earlier, Dodik himself also visited Istanbul, where he held talks with the Turkish leader. Again, being an ally of (partially) Muslim Bosnia and Herzegovina and Albania, Turkey has no less close allied relations with Montenegro and Northern Macedonia. And Ankara is ready to be a guarantor of the territorial integrity of these states and not allow Albanian separatism to raise its head there. The same Montenegro, even against the backdrop of cooling relations with Russia, is historically turned to the East and is not inclined to fully trust its fate to Europe and the West. In this situation, Ankara, with its multi-vector approach and special view of international affairs, is becoming a desirable partner. In particular, on June 25, 2023, the then Prime Minister of Montenegro Dritan Abazović, during a visit to Istanbul, stated that Turkey has now become a “key country” in the Western Balkans and the region is in dire need of mediation from leaders like Erdogan, who are capable of bringing the necessary stability to it. MACEDONIAN FRONT AGAINST ATHENS And in August 2021, shortly after joining NATO, North Macedonia signed a separate military cooperation agreement with Turkey, providing for the active participation of the Turkish military in the modernization and enhancement of the defense capability of the North Macedonian army. Of course, by strengthening its position in the Balkans, Ankara is also challenging Athens, with which Turkey has a whole tangle of unresolved problems. And it is precisely on this basis that Ankara is becoming one of the closest partners of Northern Macedonia and has already helped Skopje join NATO, when Greece was against it. Therefore, the development of military cooperation with North Macedonia and Albania could be an alarming signal for Greece. In recent years, in the context of the Turkish-Greek escalation in the Eastern Mediterranean, France has provided significant military and diplomatic support to the Greeks. Therefore, the possibility of tensions to the north and west of the continental borders of Greece should not be underestimated. |
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