by Kamran Gasanov
[REGNUM] Iran's latest attacks have once again shaken the Middle East and the rest of the world. Emotions are mixed: some countries are happy that Israel has finally "got what it deserved," while others in the West express solidarity with the Jewish state. Still others fear becoming a victim or being drawn into someone else's confrontation. Where does Turkey fit into this complex equation with so many variables?
It is logical to assume that the Turkish government and the majority of the population, who have long been sympathetic to Hamas, should rejoice. Iran is taking revenge for Palestine, among other things, and therefore everything is according to the system "the enemy of my enemy is my friend." But is this really so?
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not say anything specific about the Iranian missile attack. There were no words of direct support, although some media outlets came out with the headline "Erdogan approved Iran's missile attack against Israel."
Literally, the Turkish president stated the following: " Israeli aggression includes Turkey, so Ankara will resist this state terrorism with all available means." That is, the emphasis here is on Israel itself, on the fact that it is the aggressor, and the aggressor can and must be resisted. Iran's support was only indirect.
The junior partner of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), Devlet Bahçeli, representing the nationalists, also managed to speak out : “Those who think that the war will be limited to the Middle East are mistaken.” And in this phrase, support for Iran is felt even less.
Bahceli echoes what experienced world politicians, including Sergey Lavrov, say : there is a high probability of a number of players, including the United States, being drawn into the war. Turkey is a NATO member and has an American military base on its territory, so escalation puts Ankara before a difficult choice.
It would be strange to expect Bahçeli to have sympathy for Tehran, since he represents the MHP party, which idealizes the “Turan” project, to which its ideologists also include the 30-million-strong Azerbaijani-Turkic diaspora in Iran.
Turkey cannot condemn Iran either, because then Ankara would de facto recognize the legitimacy of Israel's actions, which are a priori illegitimate for it. And if we leave aside sympathies and antipathies, the Erdogan administration believes that Israel is objectively to blame for the escalation.
By the way, before the missile strike on Israel, the Yeni Şafak newspaper reported that the US, via Turkey, allegedly asked the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) not to carry out a large-scale attack on Israel, and Ankara itself called on the parties to avoid a major war. Later, the Turkish Foreign Ministry gave an explanation and confirmed that the country had indeed tried to act as a mediator, calling on both Washington and Tehran to make balanced decisions.
“We will continue to make efforts to prevent the launch of a process that will cause irreparable damage to the stability of our region and lead to even greater conflict at the global level,” the press service of the Turkish diplomatic department said.
In the end, no one listened to Turkey, the US was unable to rein in Benjamin Netanyahu, and Iran struck. At the same time, the Iranians, as diplomatic sources told Yeni Şafak, informed their Turkish colleagues in advance about the planned strike.
If we rewind the clock a little further, we can find additional signs of indirect support for the Iranians: Hakan Fidan's ministry blamed the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) after the bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus.
The statement was symbolic, even if it was dictated only by Turkey's general anti-Israeli position. Ankara then in fact supported not only Iran, but also Syria, despite the fact that relations with it have not been restored to this day.
BETTING ON THE SUNNIS
It would seem that Dolmabahce's position on Lebanon is more obvious and clear, there are no half-tones or hints in it - Israel invaded a sovereign country, period. The Turkish Foreign Ministry perceived the start of the ground operation in Lebanon as a "violation of sovereignty and territorial integrity" and an "illegal attempt at occupation." Erdogan, on the other hand, harshly called the Israeli shelling of Lebanon genocide. But there are nuances here too.
Erdogan does not sympathize with Hezbollah, does not comment on the death of its leader Hassan Nasrallah. And where would sympathy come from if Turkish PMCs and the pro-Turkish armed opposition in Syria fought against Assad, supported by Hezbollah, Iran and pro-Iranian groups?
Hezbollah is part of the Shiite project, and Erdogan is betting on the Sunnis, who make up almost half of Lebanon's population. Therefore, by condemning Israel and sending humanitarian aid to Lebanon, the "Turkish Sultan" is addressing his support primarily to them.
Since the Gaza war began last October, evidence has mounted of Erdogan’s support for other pro-Iranian forces, such as the Houthis. When the latter began attacking Western ships and the US and UK launched strikes in Yemen, Erdogan accused the US of trying to turn the Red Sea into a “sea of blood.”
If you dig even deeper, you can find many other similar examples. But in terms of the general clash between Israel and the Iranian “Axis of Resistance,” of all the victims and targets of Israeli aggression, Erdogan sincerely and most of all feels sorry for Hamas. This sympathy stems from ideology: Hamas is the “Muslim Brotherhood” (a terrorist organization banned in Russia), and Erdogan’s AKP party is the same “brotherhood.”
Türkiye winks at the rest – Hezbollah, the Houthis, the damaged Iranian consulate and Iran itself in general – exclusively in the context of the confrontation with Israel.
"AGGRESSION AT THE DOORSTEP"
It is curious that, in addition to declaring lofty and somewhat idealistic universal (condemnation of genocide) and pan-Islamic (protection of Muslims of the world) principles, the Turkish government has recently switched to more down-to-earth rhetoric. Erdogan, representatives of the AKP, Fidan and others say that Israel threatens Turkey itself and if it is not stopped, “we will be next.”
"After Palestine and Lebanon, the Israeli leadership, obsessed with the insane idea of a 'promised land,' will target our homelands. Occupation, terror and aggression are already at our doorstep. Before us is not a state bound by law, but a gang of murderers, feeding on blood and fattened by occupation," Erdogan said, commenting on the IDF offensive in Lebanon.
Obviously, fears about Israeli aggression against Turkey are exaggerated. Israel has enough enemies without having to fight the second most powerful army in NATO. And they have no territorial claims against each other. Here, the AKP and its leader are playing more for the domestic public, trying once again to consolidate a society worried about the economic crisis, the influx of refugees and other social problems.
While placing special emphasis on Turkey's defense, its government will not forget about the Islamic factor. Hence the president's latest warnings about Israel's intentions to expand into Syria and Lebanon and create a "promised land" between the Tigris and Euphrates. To counter these plans, Erdogan calls on fellow believers throughout the region to create an "Islamic alliance."
"Islamic countries must give the strongest possible response to the persecution in Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon. As Muslims, we must lead the world in preventing oppression," he says.
"SOLIDARITY LINE"
The Turkish leader wants to use his personal example to convince Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria and other countries to impose their will on Israel. At the end of July, he admitted that, "if necessary," the Turkish Armed Forces could enter Israel and Libya. The Arab world listens to the Turk, applauds him, but is in no hurry to take any action.
Erdogan probably understands himself that neither Egypt, nor the KSA, nor the UAE will join the anti-Israeli coalition. But Erdogan would not be Erdogan if he left empty-handed. Pan-Islamic rhetoric helps him solve his problems with his former opponents.
How else can one find a common language with the Egyptian general As-Sisi, who was not recognized by the Turks just yesterday, or with the still unrecognized Bashar al-Assad, if not through uniting around a rhetoric that is understandable to them, of sympathy for the suffering of Muslims in Gaza, Lebanon and the entire Middle East.
Under the guise of fighting Zionism and Israel, Turkey is holding its first summits in 13 years with the Arab League and Egypt, and is preparing to do the same with Damascus. Erdogan says outright that recent moves to normalize relations with Damascus and Cairo are aimed at forming a “line of solidarity” against the Israeli threat.
In short, the Turkish president has condemned, with varying degrees of severity, all of Israel's attacks against Iran and its allies. And in a political sense, the government in Ankara will continue to sympathize with the "Axis of Resistance" in their fight against the Jewish state, because it is also fighting for Hamas.
At the same time, both members of the ruling coalition in Turkey and the cabinet, despite all their hatred for Netanyahu, do not want the situation to get out of control.
While blaming the US for failing to contain Bibi's ambitions, the Turkish Foreign Ministry is more than willing to act as a mediator between Washington and Tehran to soften the impact of Iranian "retaliatory strikes."
Turkey does not need a major war in the Middle East, especially in the context of the lira crisis. Turkey is laying a transport route to the Persian Gulf through Iraq (the "Development Path"), wants to be a logistics, food and energy hub, needs investments from the UAE and KSA, and is expanding projects with Egypt.
War and instability will destroy all these financial and economic plans.
At the same time, it is worth remembering that, just like Israel, Iran is perceived by the Turks as a competitor in the struggle for influence in the Middle East, the Mediterranean and North Africa.
It’s just that today the goals of Iran and Turkey have coincided, and the declared fight against Zionism meets the economic, domestic and foreign policy interests of both the country and Erdogan’s ruling party.