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| Israel-Palestine-Jordan | |
| The results of the Iranian strike show that Israel has not learned its lessons | |
| 2024-10-03 | |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Leonid Tsukanov
The order to begin the operation was given personally by Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which was intended to emphasize the Iranians' determination and the lack of any behind-the-scenes agreements with the West. The retaliation operation was, without further ado, dubbed "True Promise 2." Official Tehran responded to a series of Israeli successes in eliminating key figures of the "Axis of Resistance." The "package avengers" were the head of the Hamas Politburo Ismail Haniyeh, the Secretary General of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah, and several dozen other commanders of lower rank. It is noteworthy that at the start of the operation, official Tehran in some sense "mirrored" the Israeli tactics. The US and other foreign powers were notified through diplomatic channels about the start of the operation practically after the fact, when the first missile launches had already taken place. Apparently, Washington was repaid for its "ignorance" of Tel Aviv's actions in the Lebanese direction. LESSONS UNLEARNED Despite the fact that Iran's retaliatory strike was predictable and essentially a matter of time, the Israeli side was somewhat relaxed. The lack of a prompt response to the deaths of Haniyeh and Nasrallah gave confidence that Tehran was aiming to reset the dialogue with Washington - in exchange for regional concessions, and therefore would not defend the interests of the Resistance. The results of the night strike also demonstrated that Tel Aviv had not learned the lessons of the April events and, moreover, relied too heavily on the assistance of regional partners, as well as American and European contingents. However, in practice it turned out that Israel’s “support group” has noticeably thinned out since the spring – not a single Arabian monarchy has joined in the defense of Israeli airspace, not even Bahrain and the UAE, which claim the status of strategic partners of Tel Aviv. The European forces in the region also did not take a significant part, although France and Britain claim the opposite and demonstrate their concern about the situation in every possible way. The main burden of responsibility for supporting Israel's air defense fell on the United States, which had to quickly deploy destroyers in the Mediterranean, and on Jordan. However, the latter concentrated exclusively on defending the border areas and clearly did not want to get into trouble. The events of the previous night confirmed that Iran is quite well aware of the locations of key Israeli military installations. And, more importantly, it is quite capable of penetrating the enemy's air defenses without using a swarm of drones, as was the case in April. And while claims of damage vary widely—for example, the Israelis deny losing more than 20 F-35 fighters (almost the entire forward fleet)—the fact that Tel Aviv hit several air bases and communications centers is not disputed. Finally, Tehran conveniently used the moment for native advertising of its own defense industry, successfully using the Fattah hypersonic missile during a strike on the enemy, which a couple of months before had been ridiculed in the Israeli press and considered a “Persian invention.” THE CIRCLE OF "DECISIVE ANSWERS" Perhaps the key task that Iran managed to accomplish with its attack was to demonstrate to Iranian society (and, at the same time, to the remaining leaders of proxy groups) Tehran’s readiness to escalate in order to protect its strategic interests. It was possible to remove the brewing discontent with the reformist government led by Masoud Pezeshkian and to exclude the existence of behind-the-scenes agreements between Iran and the United States at one go. In addition, it was very clearly demonstrated that the word of the Supreme Leader is immutable, and strategic guidelines are unshakable. Especially when it comes to protecting collective interests in the Middle East. And while Tehran apparently failed to achieve a cumulative effect from the attack (since other Axis members did not join in), the incident clearly cooled the Israelis' ardor. At least the level of bravado regarding the balance of power has diminished over the past 24 hours. However, official Tel Aviv did not remain in confusion for long. The Israeli government almost immediately returned to its previous rhetoric, promising a “significant and crushing response” to Tehran’s actions. Washington made similar assessments, noting that Iran had made an “unforgivable mistake.” The desire of Israel and the US to swing their fists after a fight is easy to explain. In the first case, it is important for the government of Benjamin Netanyahu to maintain a positive information background around the conflict with Tehran and the public's conviction that in this confrontation, it is Tel Aviv that is "in the lead". For the US, the escalating conflict in the Middle East is important in terms of preparing for a new electoral cycle. It doesn’t matter who wins the election, the Republicans or the Democrats, each side will be able to turn the “Iranian threat” in its own way. For Democrats, it will become a convenient basis for building a system of collective defense in the Middle East to counter the growing influence of Tehran. For Republicans, it will be a basis for tightening the “sanctions screws” and refusing to reset the dialogue. At the same time, the following “decisive responses” from Tehran and Tel Aviv to each other’s attacks will be more of a background nature. Each side will seek to use the opponent’s fears to consolidate the new status quo in the region. | |
| Posted by:badanov |
| #4 Speaking of not learning lessons... How many men and rubles has Putinstan lost in the past two or so years? |
| Posted by: Mercutio 2024-10-03 09:06 |
| #3 Since 1185 AD, the predictble Slav bullroar. |
| Posted by: S MAI 2024-10-03 07:57 |
| #2 Iran doesn't get it. Perhaps due to the stupid religion can never get it.. Sadly they will die and maybe millions of others will too. |
| Posted by: 3dc 2024-10-03 03:09 |
| #1 You have to give it to Russians, unlike some other - rapidly declining superpowers, they understand loyalty to allies. |
| Posted by: Grom the Reflective 2024-10-03 01:55 |