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| Baku analysts assess the impact of military escalation between Iran and Israel on Azerbaijan | ||
| 2024-10-03 | ||
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. [KavkazUzel] The military escalation between Iran and Israel will have consequences for neighboring countries, including Azerbaijan, Baku analysts interviewed by the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent suggested. Baku should remain neutral in this conflict, they emphasized. As the "Caucasian Knot" wrote, relations between Iran and Azerbaijan have worsened against the backdrop of Baku's plans to implement the Zangezur Corridor project through Armenia. In October-November 2022, both countries held military exercises near the border and exchanged mutual accusations of terrorist and sabotage activities. These accusations have become an element of the information war and evidence of the deterioration of relations between the two countries,  analysts interviewed by the "Caucasian Knot" noted. Iran launched its second major attack on Israel in six months on Tuesday evening, October 1, firing more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israeli territory. Most of them were shot down by Israel and the "US-led defense coalition,"
Axios, citing Israeli officials, reported on the morning of October 2 that Israel would launch "serious retaliation" in response to a massive Iranian missile attack within a few days. In particular, strikes could be carried out on Iranian oil production facilities and other strategic sites, the publication writes. In addition, Israeli officials admit that the IDF could strike Iran's nuclear facilities in the event of a repeat attack. Israel's retaliatory strike against Iran is inevitable, believes the editor and analyst of the Turan news agency, Shahin Gadzhiev. "Of course, given that a retaliatory strike against Iran could lead to a regional war,
In any case, an armed escalation between Israel and Iran will have consequences for neighboring countries and the region. "It is enough to note that flights through the airspace of Iran, Israel and a number of neighboring countries have already been significantly limited. This will also affect trade and political relations. It is possible that relations between Iran and Azerbaijan and Saudi Arabia, which do not support Tehran's position on events in the Middle East, will worsen. If a large-scale war breaks out, not only the countries of the region will be involved in it, but major powers will intervene. This will lead to instability and uncertainty," Gadzhiev noted. He is confident that Iran will not threaten Azerbaijan with military strikes given the close partnership between Baku and Tel Aviv. Hajiyev stressed that there is no evidence that cooperation between Azerbaijan and Israel is directed against Iran. Azerbaijan also has a military alliance with Turkey, and Tehran will not risk a conflict with Ankara, which has the second largest army in NATO, in such a situation. In his opinion, Russia will also not tolerate a military escalation near its southern borders, especially since it has been building up a mutually beneficial partnership with Azerbaijan in recent years, the analyst continued. In addition, Azerbaijan carries out important hydrocarbon deliveries to Europe, and the beneficiaries of these projects are Western companies, and a threat to these routes will only create additional problems and risks for Iran. Finally, Hajiyev noted, for Iran itself, now in the conditions of regional isolation, a window through Azerbaijan is very important for the development of transport links with the outside world in the northern direction, and above all with Russia. According to the former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, Tofig Zulfgurov, even if events develop along the path of escalating armed confrontation, the period of military action will be short-lived. "I would like to believe that in relations between Iran and the West, which have influence on Israel, both sides intend to achieve a balance of interests," he said. In his opinion, after Israel's retaliatory strikes, negotiations on détente between the West and Iran may begin. In his opinion, if negotiations between Iran and the West begin, the consequences of the current escalation in the region will be minimized. In any case, he said, Azerbaijan should take a neutral position in this conflict, which is in its own interests, as well as important for the international community. "Due to the military escalation, many airlines are asking for permission to use Azerbaijan's airspace and refuel aircraft at the Baku airport," Zulfugarov said. Given the instability to the north and south of Azerbaijan, many centers of power will try to help Baku maintain its own stability, given that important transport routes between the West and the East pass through the country, the former head of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry said. Confrontation and military operations in the region are not in the interests of Azerbaijan, says Asim Mollazade, a member of the Azerbaijani parliament and chairman of the Democratic Reforms Party. In his opinion, it is important for Baku to end military actions. At the same time, the actual alliance between Iran and Armenia, and Tehran's serious support for Yerevan, is causing concern for Azerbaijan. "Iran supports Armenia and also creates an obstacle to the opening of transport communications in the region, and in particular, the Zangezur corridor. This negatively affects the strategic plans of Azerbaijan. But this disrupts the plans of not only Baku, but also other states close to the region, since Azerbaijan's communications are located on the routes of international transport corridors," Mollazade told a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent. He believes that, as part of international efforts to defuse the situation in the Middle East, the issue of removing Iran’s obstacles to the development of international transport corridors through Azerbaijan should also be addressed. Another member of the Azerbaijani parliament, political scientist Rasim Musabeyov, called the prospects of an Iranian-Israeli confrontation dangerous. "Iran launched missile strikes against Israel. In turn, Israel states that these strikes will not go unanswered. The growing military escalation does not bode well for Azerbaijan, as a neighboring state. In case of strikes on Iranian seaports, Azerbaijan's transportation from the Persian Gulf countries will suffer. In addition, Azerbaijan's land communication with the Nakhchivan region passes through Iran. All this creates risks for Azerbaijan. Of course, we will welcome it if it is possible to avoid a confrontational development of events. Unfortunately, we ourselves cannot influence this. We must simply try to ensure that tensions do not approach the borders of Azerbaijan," Musabeyov said. He also noted that the military escalation between Israel and Iran has already had a negative impact on international flights, including travel by Azerbaijani citizens. "Iran's airspace is closed, and there are no flights there. On the other hand, there were six flights a week from Baku to Israel. This in itself is an impact of the consequences (of the military escalation between Iran and Israel) on Azerbaijan," Musabeyov noted. Official Baku has not yet responded to the military escalation between Iran and Israel. Representatives of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry were unavailable for comment. Related: Azerbaijan: 2024-09-27 Iran and Russia clash over the strategic Zangezur Corridor: What's at stake? Azerbaijan: 2024-09-13 Father of Turkish-American activist urges US to investigate her killing in West Bank Azerbaijan: 2024-09-08 Establishment of Zangezur corridor a 'red line' for Iran: MP Related: Zangezur Corridor: 2024-09-27 Iran and Russia clash over the strategic Zangezur Corridor: What's at stake? Zangezur Corridor: 2024-09-08 Establishment of Zangezur corridor a 'red line' for Iran: MP Zangezur Corridor: 2024-01-02 'Against all odds.' Erdogan emerged victorious from all battles in 2023 | ||
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