| Submit your comments on this article | ||||||||||||
| Israel-Palestine-Jordan | ||||||||||||
| In pursuit of victory, Israel and Hezbollah are missing an important detail | ||||||||||||
| 2024-09-25 | ||||||||||||
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Leonid Tsukanov [REGNUM] For several days in a row, an intense exchange of attacks between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah has continued, the largest in the past two decades. In the first hours of the Israeli operation, dubbed "Arrows of the North," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called on the Lebanese population to immediately leave the border area and "not interfere with justice." Soon enough, the Internet was flooded with footage of multi-kilometer traffic jams - civilians in southern Lebanon were trying to leave the escalation zone, often under Israeli bombardment. Other footage was also distributed - for example, of the hasty evacuation to bomb shelters of the population of Haifa, Israel, where they had already become unaccustomed to rocket attacks from Lebanon. Both sides have seriously raised the stakes with the intention of forcing the opponent to “throw in the white flag” at any cost. Moreover, both Israel and Hezbollah are absolutely certain that the enemy is about to waver, and that victory over it will be quick and final. However, recent events increasingly indicate the opposite. SECOND GAZA The current actions of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) differ little from its offensive tactics in the Gaza Strip. In an effort to bleed Hezbollah dry, Israeli forces are practically non-stop ironing out Lebanon with all available means. In the last 24 hours alone, Israel has attacked more than a thousand targets in Lebanon, not limiting the geography of the raids to the border zone. The Israelis claim that the initiative is entirely on their side. Thanks to intensive combined strikes, they allegedly managed to destroy up to half of Hezbollah's arsenal, as well as "tie up operational control" of the movement's rank-and-file fighters. According to information released by the IDF, several dozen high-ranking Hezbollah commanders were killed or seriously wounded in the raids, including officers from the elite Radwan special forces unit and close associates of the movement's Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. It should be noted that Israel explains its actions against Lebanon by security considerations and the “desire to protect not only its own, but also the Lebanese civilian population,” who “found themselves hostages” of Iranian proxies. At the same time, the notorious “pager attack,” which resulted in almost 4,000 Lebanese casualties (most of them civilians)
Thus, Israeli President Isaac Herzog publicly stated that Israel was not involved in the pager explosions in Lebanon, and that the terrorist attack against Hezbollah commanders could have been carried out by the movement’s “numerous ill-wishers.” Most likely, Herzog tried to tone down the overly bellicose rhetoric of Prime Minister Netanyahu, who threatened new retaliation against all those who support Hezbollah, even indirectly.
The ultimate goal of Israel's intimidation campaign is not difficult to determine: Tel Aviv is trying to provoke panic and discontent among the Lebanese toward Hezbollah.
This will provide the IDF with the opportunity to freely enter southern Lebanon and stop the shelling of northern Israel (by creating a “security zone” in the border area), which has not stopped for almost a year. For Netanyahu, who has still not been able to “pick the keys” to the sympathies of northern refugees, whose number has already exceeded 100 thousand people, such a scenario seems advantageous. However, the Israeli leadership does not rule out a more complex option, which would involve a protracted struggle with Hezbollah. A full-scale offensive into southern Lebanon is fraught with risks. The cost of error, given previous failed Lebanese campaigns, seems too high.
Among other things, Israel can use the Golan Heights (Syria) it has occupied
However, a strong pretext is needed to develop an offensive, and Tel Aviv hopes to provoke Hezbollah into a serious response. This would allow the remaining “moral restrictions” on the operation to be lifted and to invade Lebanon without regard for US opinion. HOW WILL HEZBOLLAH RESPOND? Despite Israel's air superiority, Hezbollah still holds its own and even tries to respond to Israeli actions in proportion. The first step was to increase the depth and frequency of the strikes. Over the past 24 hours, the movement has launched at least 200 rockets and kamikaze drones, some of which have managed to penetrate Israel's missile defense system. As a result, not only the northern border region has come under attack, but also calmer cities such as Haifa. And although the damage caused by Hezbollah is nothing compared to that caused by the Israelis, the media effect of the attacks is very high. Especially since the movement, apparently, managed to hit the Haifa explosives factory, as well as the infrastructure of the Megiddo military airport.
It should be noted that in some cases Hezbollah deliberately shows weakness in order to accelerate the IDF's shift in focus from the Gaza Strip to northern Israel.
And given that Israeli society perceives the operation in Gaza as “close to completion,” any abrupt change in the balance of power is guaranteed to have the effect of a bomb exploding. Be that as it may, both Israel and Hezbollah, in their pursuit of “final victory,” are missing an important detail: their direct clash will not be limited to local disputes, no matter how much the parties try to convince their supporters of this. On the contrary, given the high stakes that have been placed over the past year, the conflict risks spreading to the entire Middle East and drawing into the confrontation even those powers that have tried with all their might to maintain neutrality or reconcile their opponents.
| ||||||||||||
| Posted by:badanov |
| #2 mostly agiprop but they did get one thing right namely that the effects of this conflict will be regional, not just local and that is what Iran fears Hezbollah has already lost $ billions in Iran supplied weapons, if Hezbollah goes down, it will shake the Mullahs to the bottom of their turbans |
| Posted by: Lord Garth 2024-09-25 09:16 |
| #1 Накоси Викуси |
| Posted by: Grom the Reflective 2024-09-25 02:02 |