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| China-Japan-Koreas |
| Time For China To Turn On The Printing Press |
| 2024-09-22 |
[ZH] Summary
RED FLAG FOR RED CHINA The advantage of tracking container volumes is that we can bypass inflation and price distortions. Simply put, on a container volume basis, Chinese imports are struggling: -7% y/y. Container throughput has fallen 20% in the last 2 years. The Chinese economic miracle is fading. Unemployment is 5.3% in the cities and 17% among youth 17-24 years old (ex students). Goldman, Citi, JP Morgan are all expecting growth of <5%. The housing sector is the point of focus. Housing asset values supported the consumer economy but prices have collapsed. The latest month: -7% y/y. The Chinese consumer won't spend until housing prices stabilize. The housing bubble must be reinflated. Lots of stats and graphs follow |
| Posted by:Frank G |
| #5 You're not wrong Grom! |
| Posted by: Seeking Cure For Ignorance 2024-09-22 23:18 |
| #4 #1 Maybe, just maybe, the economic theory they teach in all Western universities is a pile of crap? |
| Posted by: Grom the Reflective 2024-09-22 10:44 |
| #3 Turn on printing press is the worst thing China could do. Purchasing gold is what they are currently doing. The trap of inflation as seen in the western world is the result of excessive printing of money. |
| Posted by: Dale 2024-09-22 10:26 |
| #2 ZH has sung the same tune for years. Imports have decreased because they make their own copies. Dramatic increase in workers pay also. Increased housing production was to handle future growth. Belt road and other major projects in the works. China is not Japan. |
| Posted by: Dale 2024-09-22 10:22 |
| #1 I've been hoping to dance on the grave of the PRC for many years, in fact, ever since Gordon Chang's book "The Coming Collapse of China" came out in 2001. always disappointed |
| Posted by: Lord Garth 2024-09-22 08:50 |