by Leonid Tsukanov
[REGNUM] On September 17, a mass explosion of pagers occurred in Lebanon. According to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, more than 4,000 people were injured in different parts of the country, at least 11, including one child, died from their injuries.
Also, according to officially unconfirmed reports, the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, was wounded, which was considered clear confirmation of the close ties between Lebanese Hezbollah and official Tehran.
Responsibility for the incident was placed on Israel, which had “re-soldered” a batch of pagers delivered to Lebanon in advance, sealing a small explosive charge in the batteries.
At the appointed hour, the detonators went off, triggering a chain of micro-explosions. At the same time, the version of a “high-precision cyber attack” against the devices, which was spread in the first hours after the incident, did not stand up to criticism and fell apart.
The "pager attack" has taken the confrontation between the "Axis of Resistance" and Israel to a new level. Under these conditions, Iran, Hezbollah's main ally, will have to not only restrain the movement from retaliation, but also somehow ensure a "common response" to all previous attacks against the "Axis".
REACHED THE ENEMY
Pagers may seem like a thing of the past, but they remain a backup method of communication: in 2024, there are still more than 2 million devices in use worldwide.
Not long ago, Lebanese Hezbollah also began using pagers as a means of operational communication on a permanent basis.
According to its leader, this was supposed to complicate the work of Israeli intelligence services in “knocking out” high-ranking figures of the movement.
The use of this method became especially relevant after the “Tehran incident,” which resulted in the death of the head of the Hamas political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh ; the Israelis tracked his exact location via the WhatsApp messenger.
However, the switch to “secure” devices has backfired on Iran’s Lebanese allies.
A batch of Taiwanese pagers, purchased on order from Hezbollah, played the role of a time bomb and allowed the Israelis to simultaneously “reach out” to a significant portion of their opponents at minimal cost.
HEZBOLLAH'S LOSSES ARE MINIMAL
Despite the public outcry that followed the incident, which resonated around the world, Israel managed to achieve its goals only partially, sowing panic in Lebanese society and among the leaders of Hezbollah, who clearly did not expect such a large-scale attack.
At the same time, from the point of view of other objective indicators, the attack was ineffective. In particular, it is known that only one high-ranking functionary of the movement, Deputy Secretary General Naim Kassem, was injured as a result. He received minor injuries.
However, other high-ranking figures, including Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, were not harmed at all.
There are also questions about the damage inflicted on the group's rank-and-file fighters. At the moment, Hezbollah reports only a dozen of its fighters killed "as a result of Israeli aggression." No details are provided about the wounded.
Considering that representatives of the movement's information bloc, as a rule, are not inclined to understate losses - and, moreover, try in every way to emphasize the sacrifice of Hezbollah members - the main damage from the Israeli attack, apparently, was suffered by the civilian population of Lebanon.
Hezbollah security officials also said many fighters were saved by their vigilance: They noticed the batteries of the new Taiwanese pagers were constantly overheating and "got rid of them in advance."
However, given the confusion that reigns in Lebanon after the “pager attack,” this thesis cannot be confirmed or refuted.
HIDDEN MOTIVES
The US, apparently, was not fully informed about the Israeli special operation. Why did Israel need to carry out such an ambiguous "action", which also resulted in criticism from the UN and damaged relations with the US administration?
Perhaps the most obvious goal is to escalate tensions in the Lebanese-Israeli border area. Israeli security officials have made it clear that the “center of gravity” of the Israeli military operation is shifting from the Gaza Strip to Lebanon, and that a full-scale operation against Hezbollah is a matter of time.
However, Tel Aviv still lacks grounds for launching an offensive.
| That’s certainly one perspective, though not the correct one. |
Considering that Hezbollah has already promised Israel “unprecedented retaliation” for yesterday’s attack, the Israeli cabinet may well use this as a justification for its “proactive offensive” into Lebanese territory.
Another goal is to disrupt Iranian-American talks on normalizing relations, the prerequisites for which have been visible in recent months. Tel Aviv is interested in Iran and its closest allies remaining in the category of “America’s enemies” for as long as possible.
In a sense, the plan actually worked. Tehran does not believe that Israel escalated without US sanction, and therefore the degree of hostility towards Washington will certainly increase after the "pager attack."
Finally, the Israeli attack has once again put Iran in an awkward position – postponing the repeatedly announced “retaliatory strike” has become even more difficult.
| The poor darlings. One carefully doesn’t think about what surprises await the Mad Mullahs and the IRGC should they do more than talk at this juncture. |
Moreover, Iran will have to increase the power of its strike in proportion to the damage that Israel has inflicted on it during this time. Refusal to escalate is fraught with the loss of authority within the "Axis of Resistance", and agreement - with the breakdown of a peaceful settlement with neighbors in the region.
| Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear. How perfectly dreadful for the would-be regional hegemon. |