by Dmitry Polyakov
[REGNUM] While the world waits impatiently for Iran's response to the assassination of Hamas politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, tensions are rising elsewhere in the Middle East. In Syria, fighting has broken out between Arab tribal militias and the predominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
The "hot phase" of the confrontation between Arab tribes and the Kurds has been going on for a year now. However, the current fighting is the largest since August-September 2023. The fighting is taking place in the rural areas of Deir ez-Zor province.
The region itself is effectively divided into two parts by the Euphrates River. The western part, including the administrative center of the same name, is controlled by the government in Damascus. The eastern part is controlled by the self-proclaimed Kurdish-Arab Autonomous Administration of Northern and Eastern Syria (AANS).
The current fighting began with an offensive by Arab tribal militias on August 7, during which they managed to establish control over the small towns of Abu Hamam, Abu Hardub and Dhiban.
It is noteworthy that this time the clashes took place near American bases, one of which is located at the Al-Omar oil field.
The tribal offensive was led by Ibrahim al-Hefel, the leader of the large Okeydat tribe. He also issued a statement promising to continue the resistance until the moment of “liberation of the land from the terrorist militias of Qandil (referring to the SDF. — Ed.)”.
Importantly, the current tribal offensive was supported by the Syrian army, as well as the pro-government militia National Defense Forces (NDF).
Meanwhile, the SDF issued a statement saying the attacks on their positions began on the orders of Hossam Louka, director of the General Directorate of Security, one of Syria's key intelligence agencies.
This circumstance indicates that the official government has moved to direct action in the Euphrates region.
Earlier, Damascus began working on interaction with the Arab tribes living in the territory of the AASVS. The same al-Hefel was seen in February of this year at negotiations in the Syrian capital for the first time since 2011.
The official government, realizing that it is impossible to gain control over the AASVS as long as American bases are there, decided to rely on internal contradictions in the Autonomous Administration. And it is the Arab tribes that are acting as an instrument that can destabilize the situation.
In addition, the tribal formation "Lions of Okeydat", led by Hashim al-Sattam, also took part in the offensive along with al-Hefel's units. The formation was created in 2021 as a local militia. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) took direct part in its creation.
This tribal militia is based in the government-controlled city of al-Mayadeen, which is also considered one of the key centers of Iranian presence in Syria. It is through this city that the Tehran-Beirut land corridor passes, providing Iran with access to the Mediterranean Sea, as well as providing opportunities for supplying various pro-Iranian groups.
According to information published in Syrian opposition media, tribal forces have been training for several months in IRGC camps located in the Deir ez-Zor and al-Mayadeen areas.
The current interaction with the tribes is one of the pillars of Iranian policy in the Euphrates region. It is aimed at two main tasks - maintaining a presence in eastern Syria by creating safe conditions for the functioning of the land corridor and putting pressure on the United States.
For more than five years, pro-Iranian forces have been constantly shelling American military bases in the region, including in Syria. And relatively recently, Tehran began to involve Arab tribal militias in attacks. In addition, by interacting with the tribes, Iran sees an opportunity to increase discord within the Autonomous Administration, which increases the costs for the United States.
THE SOURCE OF THE PROBLEM
However, external involvement is not the main source of the current armed clashes between Arab and Kurdish forces. The main reason lies in internal contradictions that have their roots in the creation of the Autonomous Administration.
Initially, the AASVS was conceived by the American side as an alternative political project to the Syrian government, built on the unity of Arabs and Kurds. Despite some efforts made by the United States, the idea of coexistence of different ethnic groups was never achieved.
On the contrary, today the ethnic factor is one of the key problems. The Arabs consider most of the territories of the AASVS as their ancestral lands, and the Kurds themselves as strangers who were imposed by Washington to govern the region.
Given that the Americans have virtually withdrawn from work related to the functioning of local government, these tasks have been transferred to Kurdish representatives, who today serve as political commissars.
Most of them are members of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), some of whom are not Syrians at all and do not even speak Arabic. In addition, Arab tribes are practically not represented in the local councils of the Autonomous Administration.
Another important reason for internal contradictions is economic. The richest oil fields (except for Rumelan) are located in the territories inhabited by Arab tribes. Deir ez-Zor province alone provides more than 50% of all AASVS revenues.
But the region accounts for only 16% of the autonomy's total budget, leaving the Arab population feeling deprived.
TIMING CHOICE
The timing of the current confrontation is also understandable. The leading Kurdish political party, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), is planning to hold municipal elections in the region to consolidate its power.
The election campaign was originally scheduled for June, but was postponed. Therefore, the escalation in the run-up to the elections reflects the Arab population's disagreement with the PYD's policies and its unwillingness to participate in the event on unequal terms.
Moreover, the clashes are taking place against the backdrop of discussions on the possibility of Syrian-Turkish normalization.
The participation of the government side in the military actions is a signal to Ankara that Damascus has various instruments of pressure on the SDF. It is important that it is on the Kurdish issue that Syria and Turkey can most easily find common ground, which could become the basis for improving relations.
For Iran in its current situation, it is also advantageous to create divisions within the SDF and damage the American presence.
The use of tribes as “proxy forces” is aimed at increasing the security threat near American bases and is consistent with the general political course of permanent pressure on Washington’s positions in the region.
Thus, several parties had similar interests at once, which ultimately led to the start of armed clashes.