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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| Iranian Naval Capabilities in the Straits of Hormuz (I disagree with assessment) |
| 2024-08-12 |
| [GreyDynamics] In August 2023, around 100 US Marines from the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit deployed to Bahrain [source]. These Marines are on standby to escort merchant shipping through the Straits of Hormuz at a given notice. The object of their threat is fairly clear. In July, Iran seized a Tanzanian-flagged tanker ship which it claimed was potentially involved in smuggling unspecified illicit goods [source]. The proximity to the US 5th Fleet in Bahrain and the potential introduction of Marines on merchant shipping raises the prospect of prolonged tensions in the Gulf. In this report, we leverage geospatial intelligence to examine the extent of Iranian naval capabilities. We also examine Iran’s air warfare capability. Finally, we utilize Sentinel-1 SAR imagery to collate possible locations of Iranian coastal defence batteries in order to assess their potential role in the event of hostilities. Key Judgement 1: It is highly unlikely that Iran is hardening its airbases in order to blunt the impact of US air dominance in a future war. Key Judgement 2: It is likely that the Iranian Navy will pursue attacks on civilian shipping with light attack craft and submarines over a conventional confrontation with US and allied navies. Key Judgement 3: It is highly likely that Iran would heavily rely on its missile deterrence capability in the absence of sufficient air or naval power, increasing the threat to civilian energy infrastructure. |
| Posted by:Clem+Elmish4239 |
| #2 closing the straits of hormuz would badly damage Kuwait, the UAE and the Saudis but it would also badly damage Iran |
| Posted by: Lord Garth 2024-08-12 18:29 |
| #1 Pretty good breakdown actually. Everything that the assessment says Iran did they did in the 1980s to fuck up shipping traffic in the Gulf. So far Iran has not shown any real change in that strategy. The interesting wrinkle is the hovercraft. If I was Iran, I would use them 24-36 hours before any major action to land on small islands, set up radar and SAM sites along with any portable anti-ship missiles. When shit kicked off, I would ambush any (and I mean ANY) shipping or air traffic trying to get in or out of the Gulf. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2024-08-12 06:56 |