by Artemy Sharapov
[REGNUM] Ukraine has received the long-awaited first batch of American fourth-generation F-16 fighters, at least that's what Bloomberg reported, citing an anonymous, informed source.
The publication’s source clarified that for now this is a “small number,” and that NATO doubts that Ukrainian pilots will be able to fly aircraft in the foreseeable future.
The news was published a few days after videos were posted online that allegedly showed American aircraft in the Ukrainian skies. However, official Kyiv immediately stated that it would not comment on any publications related to the supply of fighter jets.
As the adviser to the head of Volodymyr Zelensky’s office, Mykhailo Podolyak, stated, “it is clear that we will not comment on this in any way, because for us this is a survival factor.”
There are high hopes for the F-16 as another wonder weapon. Earlier, the Ukrainian Armed Forces command directly stated that the supplies should help change the balance of power during the conflict.
For example, the commander of the Ukrainian Navy, Oleksiy Neizhpapa, suggested that the appearance of American aircraft would, at least, call into question Russia's "complete dominance" in the skies over the Black Sea. But Regnum News Agency has figured out how justified such a hope is.
"SHORT-RANGE AIRCRAFT"
The decision to provide Ukraine with American-made aircraft was made by NATO in the summer of 2023. The Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium and Norway joined the "fighter coalition", agreeing to provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with F-16 aircraft from their own air forces that were being decommissioned. The coalition also promised to provide assistance with pilot training and maintenance personnel preparation.
The governments of Denmark and the Netherlands have indicated that they will allow Ukraine to use F-16s to strike at Russian territory, although Copenhagen added that such a step would be “depending on the circumstances.” This is not about “cast-off items” being handed over to the Ukrainian Air Force from a “master’s shoulder.” The F-16 Falcon is a proven machine.
The US Air Force alone has about three thousand fighters of this model. Hundreds more have been sold to a large number of foreign customers. According to media reports, the Ukrainian Air Force will receive fighters in the Bloc 40/50 modification - in principle, corresponding to the realities of modern warfare.
On the other hand, the combat radius of the fighters relative to the takeoff airfield is small - lower than that of the Russian Su-30 family of fighters, and in terms of flight altitude they are inferior to the MiG-31 interceptors. At the same time, the range of the Khibiny radar station installed on modern Russian fighters exceeds 300 km, with 100-150 km for the radar on the F-16.
This means that the Sokol can be shot down by an enemy that is beyond its detection capabilities.
It is also not entirely clear how many aircraft Kyiv can actually count on. Western sources claim that Ukraine will receive at least 79 fighters, but the delivery schedule has been stretched out until either 2026 or 2028 — the final date is constantly being pushed back. Earlier, a number of Western media outlets noted that in 2024 the Ukrainian Armed Forces will receive a maximum of 10-12 aircraft.
But the lack of fighters is not the only problem for the Ukrainian Air Force, military expert Alexander Artamonov told IA Regnum. Moreover, even a small number of aircraft creates a lot of problems with their maintenance and pilot training.
"Most likely, we are talking about the planes that were transferred from the Netherlands to Romania to train Ukrainian pilots. It is known that, according to the conclusion of NATO officers, only one out of twenty Ukrainian cadets is ready to perform flight work. Among the problems mentioned were poor language skills, lack of diligence and, for example, weight gain - that is, getting out of optimal shape," the expert notes.
Therefore, most likely, Western veterans from Europe or the United States will be at the controls, especially since NATO flight centers recently announced a recruitment of veteran pilots.
BATTLE FOR AIR SUPREMACY
It cannot be said that the experience of Western pilots or instructors will be useful in the skies over Ukraine. In fact, American pilots have never encountered a truly strong enemy.
During the recent American invasions of Yugoslavia and Iraq, most of the aircraft of the Air Forces of these countries were burned on the airfields, so the US aviation did not meet significant resistance. But the Russian pilots encountered, albeit smaller in numbers, but overall - a serious opponent and won the battle for the air.
In the first weeks of the SVO, obituaries of the dead Ukrainian pilots appeared online almost daily, and air battles took place in the skies above Kiev every day. It is quite difficult to establish the exact losses of the Ukrainian Air Force. Some of this was confirmed from obituaries published in the media (later such publications were banned for reasons of secrecy), and some can be tracked from satellite photographs of the wreckage or directly at the crash site.
And the F-16 could face the same fate, notes Austrian military analyst Tom Cooper.
“We should expect the Russians to figure out some kind of ‘field work’ for their MiG-31 crews. At the very least, to get plenty of opportunities to use their missile strikes and attack UAVs to ‘lure’ F-16s into ambushes by R-37-equipped MiG-31s. This has happened in the past with Ukrainian MiG-29s and Su-27s: there is no reason to expect the Russians to give up such capabilities in the future,” the expert suggests in a large article published on the Substack publishing platform.
It is noteworthy that recently Ukrainian aircraft have been increasingly destroyed at air bases - both individually, using kamikaze drones, and several at a time, as a result of the use of Iskander tactical missiles. And Kyiv was unable to solve this problem before the appearance of the F-16.
So, most likely, they will have to be placed outside the country.
"With fairly good maneuvering capabilities, the aircraft uses highly purified kerosene. It is impossible to obtain it in Ukraine. Moreover, it has a sensitive chassis, which makes it unlikely that the fighter will be used at Ukrainian airfields. Therefore, most likely, the F-16 will be based abroad and used as cover aircraft or for launching guided missiles, possibly of the Taurus class," adds expert Artamonov.
Kyiv’s American partners may also insist on stationing aircraft outside of Ukraine.
The Biden administration never promised Kyiv even a hundred aircraft, despite the fact that Zelensky requested 150 to 200 aircraft. There is an opinion in the American media that even ten units are too many, because their loss would be extremely expensive. So, in light of all the reasons stated, it can be assumed that the functionality of the F-16 in the air will be seriously limited.
The aircraft fleet will be kept away from the front line, avoiding direct clashes with Russian fighters, to whom they are inferior in a number of characteristics. The fighters will also most likely not participate in "conquering dominance" over the Black Sea and will limit themselves to launching guided weapons.
And this is already a task for our air defense calculations - not to miss targets and reduce the effect of the delivery of fighters to the Ukrainian Armed Forces to a minimum.