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| The Failure of the 2023 Counteroffensive: Analysis from Britain |
| 2024-07-19 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. [Korrespondent] In the summer of 2023, according to the plan of the Ukrainian command, 12 armored and mechanized brigades were to break through a 30 km wide area. The authoritative British security think tank RUSI has published a 48-page report , Preliminary Lessons from Ukrainian Offensive Operations 2022-23, in which it named the main reasons for the unsuccessful counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 2023. Analysts also expressed doubts about a new offensive in the near future. The authors of the report are Jack Watling, Oleksandr Danylyuk and Nick Reynolds. PLAN OF THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE The authors call the original plan justified: 12 Ukrainian armored and mechanized brigades were to break through a 30-km-wide area, isolate Tokmak for seven days, and then break through to the south to Melitopol. At that rate, Russia would not have had time to bring up reserves, and the advancing Ukrainian troops only had to overcome the resistance of six Russian regiments in defense. MISCALCULATIONS OF THE ALLIES But the implementation of this plan was hampered by mistakes made,6 in the opinion of the authors of the report, both by Ukraine’s allies and by the Ukrainian command itself. In particular, RUSI notes that Western allies did not supply enough equipment and weapons to Ukraine; unlike Russia, they did not have time to transfer industry to military flights, so they did not have enough weapons, and those that they had were delivered late. This led to the Ukrainian army having little time to master new equipment. MISCALCULATIONS OF THE UKRAINIAN COMMAND The Russian command clearly knew exactly where the main attack would be, analysts note. The authors see this as a failure of operational security on the part of both Ukraine and its allies. In addition, the Ukrainian command decided to throw less prepared units into the breakthrough, while the more experienced ones were supposed to hold the front. The Ukrainian Armed Forces scattered their forces in several directions. But the most serious mistake of the Ukrainian command, according to analysts, was that it expected that the defending Russian troops would not hold out and would flee, as happened near Kharkov in 2022. When this did not happen, the Ukrainian Armed Forces hopelessly lost momentum. However, the authors do not touch on such discussed factors as the density of Russian minefields and the capabilities of attack drones, which are capable of hitting valuable armored vehicles with great accuracy. NEW COUNTEROFFENSIVE Watling, Danylyuk and Reynolds believe that a resumption of Ukrainian offensive action is impossible in the foreseeable future. However, Ukraine may focus on inflicting maximum damage on the Russian army, as well as increasing attacks on Russian infrastructure that generates income for the Russian budget. Western and American officials estimate that Ukrainian forces will remain on the defensive for the next six months and will not be able to mount a large-scale counteroffensive until 2025. However, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are already trying to seize the tactical initiative in certain sections of the front and will be able to conduct limited counter-offensive operations even while on the defensive, if the availability of Western assistance allows it. Ukrainian forces will likely be able to increase both the scale and frequency of counterattacks in the coming months as Western aid arrives at the front and Ukraine continues to build up reserves and new brigades, according to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War. |
| Posted by:badanov |
| #2 Analysis from here: you yahoos didn't analyze Kursk '43. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2024-07-19 15:20 |
| #1 IOW, Western leaders miscalculated and Ukrainians paid for it with their lives. It does not instill much confidence in Western leaders, Joe...and Jill. |
| Posted by: Abu Uluque 2024-07-19 12:10 |