[LB] Many spears broke about when exactly the enemy's summer offensive campaign would begin . With the intensification of the battles near Toretsk, the season of the enemy's summer offensives can be considered officially open.
by Viktor Kevlyu
The Russians are very active (the list is not based on the importance of the directions or the activity of the enemy) in the Kharkiv, Siver, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk directions. But in the land corridor to the Crimea, in the Kupyansk and Lymansk directions, they behave more quietly. They don't sleep, of course, even KABs rush in from time to time, but not in comparison with the east of Ukraine.
If you look from space, the picture is like this:
The Siversky salient , created and held by the Defense Forces, is an aspen stake in the heart of the enemy's "Yug" defense forces, preventing them from advancing on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, that is, completing the conditions for capturing the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. The enemy's air defense system "Zapad" is also unable to help in the Limansk direction, and is even forced to retreat in the Serebryansk forest due to the activity of the 12th special purpose brigade "Azov" of the National Guard of Ukraine. And they have not yet been given American weapons .
Now this is clearly an auxiliary direction, where the enemy fails to form favorable conditions for an offensive operation. The enemy's 106th division of the VAT, most likely, will fall into the Ukrainian chernozems entirely and more than once. While the fighting is going on in the districts of Rozdolivka, where the enemy is already on the outskirts of the village, and Vyimka. The 7th and 123rd EMS Brigades of the 2nd Luhansk Corps actively took part in this senseless suicide.
Chasiv Yar and the surrounding areas: if you need to die somewhere stupidly, then the Russian landing party is right here. No one but them. The 98th division of the VAT has been attacking on the 3.5 km section for almost six months, although it should have stormed somewhere out of 15 kilometers, but it still did not manage to achieve anything. In addition to losses. First of all, in the 331st Airborne Regiment . If this abomination has forgotten, then not the Defense Forces: neither Ilovaisk, nor Gostomel, nor Buchu and Irpin. And from a sincere Cossack soul, they remind the enemy that no one is forgotten, nothing is forgotten.
The enemy tried to cover Chasyk from the north and south, as he likes and knows how, but our homework was done, so today everything is reduced to frontal pressure in the section Bohdanivka - Ivanovske (both villages are occupied). The enemy thought to capture Chasiv Yar by May 9, but already on June 25 — and tough battles on the Bohdanivka-Ivanivske border and in the vicinity of the Kanal and Novy micro-districts. This is the direction of another strike, the purpose of which is to create the conditions for an offensive operation to capture Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka. The grouping also has smaller directions of the main and other strike. Another thing is interesting: the enemy's 3rd corps is being killed just to squeeze the units of the Defense Forces from the bridgehead from Ivanivskoe through Klishchiivka, Andriivka to Kurdyumivka. The result is that our men came down from the commanding heights, broke into the enemy and are once again in control of the ruins of Klishchiivka. Height, by the way, too.
Toretsk : at one time the enemy received several painful kicks near Horlivka and behaved quietly. But this week he started attacking here. Captured Shumy, tries to - Friendship, Northern, fires at New York, preparing to take it, and breaks through to Toretsk. There is a high probability that in a week or two at least urban battles will be fought there.
The configuration of the front line is very advantageous for the enemy - the city is covered by the 98th Division, which is stuck at Chasov Yar, and by the troops of the "Center" UA, which are advancing from the southern flank to the north, that is, the threat of encircling our tactical group in the Toretsk ledge is not at all imaginary, although and not in the short term. If we look at this offensive at the same time as the actions of the "Center" UA, which is rushing from Ocheretiny to Vozdvizhenka and Kalinov, then it can be assumed that this summer in the South-Western TVD the Russians will deliver the main blow here.
Pokrovsky direction : it's been a month since the enemy "Tsentr" air defense system broke through the tactical defense zone of our "Tavria" anti-aircraft missile defense system here, but something is delaying the development of operational success.
Two attack vectors are clearly visible: to break through Vozdvizhenka to the Kostyantynivka-Pervomaisk highway and cut it in the Nova Poltavka-Malynyvka section (about 6 km left), which will stop Ukrainian logistics in this direction, then break through as far west as possible along the Pisky-Pokrovsk road, bypassing of the southern flank, a tactical group of the Defense Forces, which restrains the "Center" military aircraft near Novooleksandrivka, Yevgenivka, Novoselivka Pershoya, Umansky and Karlivka. The Pokrovsky direction may well be the direction of the enemy's main attack on the TVD, because it allows to cut off the "Tavria" anti-aircraft defense system and achieve one goal of the so-called SVO - to capture the Donetsk region.
CRISIS IN THE POKROVSKY DIRECTION
The enemy's activity in the Kurakhiv direction should be considered in conjunction with his activity in the Vremiv direction .
The goal is to engage the Defense Force tactical group defending Ugledar from two flanks. The development of events during the last month suggests that the seemingly pointless attacks on Staromayorsk, which even if successful will not have an operational continuation, may be a kind of smoke screen behind which the enemy is forming a strike group for the operation currently developing near Toretsk. The textbooks are too similar. So far, nothing has been heard about this group of three or four brigades and three or four regiments, but in general they do not tell everything. Therefore it is possible. The battles in the districts of Georgiyivka, Pobyeda and Novomykhailivka are a formation operation, not a strike.
What do we have in the end? The main strikes — Toretsky and Pokrovsky directions, others (formative operations) — Siversky, Chasovoyarsky, Kurakhivskyi and Vremivskyi, restrain actions in Kharkivskyi, Orikhivskyi, Prydniprovskyi. Of course, an insurance policy does not give a 100% guarantee, so it is not worth claiming that it is the truth. Reading the same book, people draw different conclusions, the same with reading the situation on maps. Here we thank the Deep State team . Colossal painstaking daily work. Thanks guys.
In order to sleep soundly after reading, let's check the conclusions by means of a simple control: where the enemy drives his reserves, there the importance of the direction is higher.
A fighter of the 82nd separate airborne assault brigade of the Armed Forces of UkrainePhoto: facebook/General StaffA fighter of the 82nd separate airborne assault brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Kharkiv direction : "Sever" UA has big problems both with manpower and supply; the TVD command does not provide reinforcements, so there are no decisive successes in Vovchansk. Several battalions from the Kherson region were transferred to this direction for trifles.
At the same time, the Russian military command is trying to withdraw combat-capable units from the Vovchansk region, in particular the 11th TP of the 18th MSD of the 11th AK and the 83rd ODSHBr of the PDV of the Russian Armed Forces (and it was two weeks ago near Chasov Yar). The 25th Infantry Brigade of the 6th ZA in the same direction lost its combat capability, it is also being taken away to recover. It seems that in a month the aggressor will crawl home to Belgorod Oblast.
THE MATHEMATICS OF WAR. HOW MUCH DOES A RUSSIAN SOLDIER COST AND WHY WILL THERE BE MOBILIZATION IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
Kupyan direction : the losses of the Russian UA "Zapad" remain high here, therefore, in order to maintain the pace of the offensive (in fact, they are skidding near Sinkivka), reinforcements are transferred here from Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Rostov regions. Currently, the "Zapad" armed forces have up to 72,000 servicemen here, of which at least half are engaged in active combat. Kramatorsk direction: the Russian Armed Forces lost an excess of personnel from their landing (read — better) units near Chasov Yar, which are being replaced by marching reinforcements from the Zaporizhzhia and Rostov regions.
Toretsk direction : active hostilities resumed only a week ago. Since April, the enemy formed a shock tactical group of five brigades (up to 15,000 servicemen), but while it was gathering, it distributed 5,000 near Ocheretine and Chasiv Yar. Now there are about 10,000 here, it is too early to talk about the introduction of reserves into operation.
Pokrovsky considers the direction of the enemy's command to be the most successful, so he does not spare reserves here. In the section from Novooleksandrivka to Georgiivka, there is a group with the number of up to 48,000 people and about 22,000 more in reserve in the nearest rear.
The Kurakhiv direction is promising, by mid-summer the enemy aims to cut off the supply of the Defense Forces in the Vugledar Defense District, and to achieve at least a semi-encirclement of it by August, so the few Russian reserves are moving here as well.
If you look at our conclusions through the prism of reserves, the main attack on TVD will be made by the enemy in the Pokrovsky direction, others - in Kupyansk, Kramatorsk, and Kurakhivsk. The events of the next 10 days will show what happened to Torecki.