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| The Grand Turk |
| 'Sow fear.' Erdogan named the conditions for a new invasion of northern Syria |
| 2024-06-15 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Dmitry Polyakov [REGNUM] The most discussed event in the political life of Syria was the local elections in the northeast of the country. The election campaign was planned for mid-June and was to take place in the provinces of Raqqa, Hasakah, northern Deir ez-Zor and eastern Aleppo. Northeast Syria is largely outside the control of the government in Damascus. The region is governed by the self-proclaimed Autonomous Administration of Northern and Eastern Syria (AASAS). The main military-political player in these territories is the Kurdish-Arab alliance - the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). This armed formation was created on the basis of the Kurdish People's Defense Units (YPG). In the territories controlled by the AASWS, political life is well developed - there is a local parliament and many parties. Two stand out among them. The first is the Democratic Union Party (PYD), which is actually the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). It is the PYD that controls the Kurdish Self-Defense Forces, and its members dominate local government. The second key local political force is the Kurdish National Council (KNC), which is associated with Iraqi Kurdistan and focuses on the Barzani clan that rules it (Mustafa Barzani is a Kurdish national hero, his son Masud is the 1st president of South Kurdistan, his grandson is the current president. - Editor's note). The holding of municipal elections was initiated by the Democratic Union Party in order to legalize its ruling status within the Autonomous Administration. However, immediately after the announcement of the start date of the election campaign, many obstacles arose. First of all, these are contradictions within the Kurdish movements. To participate in municipal elections, a party must obtain a special license from the election commission. About 30 parties were able to receive it. At first glance, this is a fairly large number of political actors. However, in reality, all of them are either in the same political bloc with the PDS, or are on good terms with it. Meanwhile, the Kurdish National Council, the main opponent of the ruling party, and the political movements associated with it were not allowed to participate in the election campaign. The current situation nullifies the idea of democratic elections, which is promoted by the AASBC government. At the same time, the Kurdish-Arab confrontation continues. The actions of the Kurdish authorities are unpopular in the territories inhabited by Arab tribes, especially in the province of Deir ez-Zor. The peak of the confrontation occurred in the second half of 2023, when the situation resulted in the Arab uprising. Armed clashes between Kurdish forces and Arab tribal militias continued for almost six months. Today the situation has only been partially resolved and the frozen crisis may worsen again. The Arab population's dissatisfaction with the Kurdish authorities is based on three key aspects. Firstly, the province of Deir ez-Zor provides more than half of the Autonomous Administration's total revenues through the development of oil fields on its territory, but the region accounts for only 16% of the expenditures of the entire budget. Secondly, members of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, many of whom are not Syrians and do not even speak Arabic, have actually begun to play the role of political commissars, which is viewed with hostility by the tribal population. Thirdly, representatives of Arab tribes are practically absent from the local councils of the AASWS. All this suggests that in areas inhabited by the Arab population, turnout in municipal elections would be extremely low. As a result, the election campaign was postponed until August. The formal reason for this decision was the request of four parties to postpone the elections due to lack of time. However, there are also external circumstances that determine such a decision. TURKISH PRESSURE The Turkish authorities reacted negatively to the Kurds' desire to hold a municipal election campaign. Ankara views the elections (and, accordingly, the legitimation of the Autonomous Administration through them) as a threat to its national security. The PYD and its affiliated defense forces are considered an extension of the PKK in Turkey, and the Kurdistan Workers' Party itself is designated a terrorist organization. Negative rhetoric immediately appeared in the statements of Turkish politicians. Thus, the leader of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), Davlet Bahçeli, called on the country's government to launch a joint military operation with the official Syrian authorities aimed at eliminating the PKK. After this, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Ankara was closely monitoring “the aggressive actions of the terrorist organization (Syrian Democratic Forces - editor’s note) against the territorial integrity of our country and Syria under the pretext of elections.” The Turkish leader also added that his country "will never allow a separatist organization to create a terrorist state just beyond its southern borders, in northern Syria and Iraq." Erdogan even mentioned the possibility of a new Turkish operation in Syria. “We did what was necessary in the past in the face of a fait accompli. We will not hesitate to act again if we encounter the same situation,” the Turkish President said. Ankara has already carried out several military operations in the north and northeast of Syria: “Euphrates Shield” (2016–2017), “Olive Branch” (2018), “Spring of Peace” (2019). As a result, three unrelated enclaves were created, informally referred to as the “Zone of Turkish Occupation.” In 2022, the Turkish side officially announced its intention to conduct a fourth operation and connect the enclaves with each other. But hostilities never began. Today in Turkey they are again talking about the need to carry out a new operation, and the elections are a suitable pretext for this. The situation in the border zone has worsened in recent days. The Turkish armed forces regularly attack SDF positions. The Kurds describe these actions as an attempt to “undermine security and stability in the region, as well as sow fear among residents in order to disrupt the legitimate procedures of municipal elections.” US PRESSURE Unexpectedly, the United States opposed the elections in northeast Syria. So at a press briefing, First Deputy Representative of the US State Department Vedant Patel said: “Any elections that take place in Syria must be free, fair, transparent and inclusive, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2254, and we do not believe that the conditions for such elections are currently in place in northeast Syria. And we brought this to the attention of a number of actors in northeast Syria." Apparently, it was Washington’s point of view that became decisive on the issue of postponing the elections. The US position is critical. In fact, an American military protectorate has been established over the Autonomous Administration, which allows the White House to determine the political course of the AASWS. Today in Washington there are serious fears of a new Turkish operation, which could destroy the structure of self-proclaimed autonomy in the northeast, which will lead to the withdrawal of most of the American military contingent from Syria. The decision of the Kurdish forces not to antagonize their main ally is quite logical. However, it is unclear whether they will abandon the elections altogether or whether they are really talking about postponing them. The local administration has put a lot of effort into preparing for the election campaign, and in this situation, a significant pause could not only reduce enthusiasm in the Kurdish society, but also nullify most of the efforts. The election campaign itself is not just about consolidating the dominant position of the PDS. The elections are also aimed at increasing the legitimacy of the self-proclaimed Autonomous Administration. The maximum plan is to achieve autonomy status similar to Iraqi Kurdistan. Therefore, the Kurdish forces will try to do everything to ensure that the elections take place. |
| Posted by:badanov |
| #2 'Sow fear' Pork is Haram. |
| Posted by: Skidmark 2024-06-15 23:32 |
| #1 Wanna bet Turks are going to kill thousands of Kurds and not a single dog: starting with Tony the Toad, and ending with the dumbest US diversity student; will bark? |
| Posted by: Grom the Reflective 2024-06-15 04:25 |