Comments

You have commented 358 times on Rantburg.

Your Name

Your e-mail (optional)

Website (optional)

	My Original Nic Pic-a-Nic Sorry. Comments have been closed on this article.
Foto

Submit your comments on this article

Afghanistan

'The people who control the country.' How Afghanistan has changed under the Taliban

2024-05-31

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Kirill Semeov

Russia is determined to normalize relations, and will say anything to do so. Count up the fictions as you read, dearReader.

[REGNUM] The problems of Afghanistan are known, but the real power there lies with the Taliban movement and this cannot be ignored, Vladimir Putin said at a meeting with the press following his visit to Uzbekistan on May 28.

“There are problems in Afghanistan, they are undeniable, everyone is well aware of them. The question of how to build relationships with the current government is another question. But we have to build it somehow, these are the people who control the country, control the territory of the country. They are the power in Afghanistan today,” the Russian President said.

A day earlier, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also made it clear that Russia is going to remove the Taliban from the list of terrorists, on which it is still included.

“Kazakhstan recently made a decision, which we are also going to make, to remove them from the list of terrorist organizations. Moreover, the UN Security Council did not declare the Taliban as a terrorist organization.

It only takes one veto, or the threat of one.

There are, in my opinion, 12–15 specific characters on the list of terrorists,” Lavrov told reporters.

Initially, the Taliban came under international sanctions and were included in terrorist lists not so much because of their own actions, but because of their support for other terrorist organizations. For example, Al-Qaeda, whose representatives received asylum in Afghanistan.

Al Qaeda is still there, as are all their little buddies. And ISIS-K is one of the leading exporters of jihad among the ISIS franchises. Some of these have connections, and have been causing trouble, in Russia.

Of course, the Taliban was and remains a fundamentalist movement, but both now and during the period of the first Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA - the Taliban state) distanced itself from obvious terrorist activities.

The Taliban, unlike Al-Qaeda and ISIS, have never advocated the dismantling of the world order and “global jihad.”

But they support — and intermarry with — those who do. Tomaytoes, tomahtoes.

During their first statehood in the 1990s, they maintained diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Pakistan. Neighboring Turkmenistan was then close to recognizing them.

At the moment, it has also become obvious that all concerns about the hypothetical expansion of the Taliban into neighboring countries have remained at the level of speculation and speculation. The Taliban movement has demonstrated in practice that it intends to build good neighborly relations with all its neighbors.

They’e still at the consolidation phase, and can’t afford external wars as well as the internal ones.

For Moscow, of course, the positive attitude of the Afghan authorities towards Russia itself and its approaches to international affairs also plays a role.

As political scientist and orientalist Mir-Ali Askerov, who recently returned from Afghanistan, told IA Regnum, “there has never been a situation in which, when you say that you are from Russia, it causes some kind of negativity, that is, it either causes at least something neutral, positive, or strictly positive attitude. The Afghans express their gratitude for the fact that you visited their country and, in general, offer their help there in every possible way.”

I assume Mr. Askerov is male.

Askerov emphasized that Afghans look with hope at the confrontation between Russia and the collective West, with the hope that Russia “will be able to withstand this onslaught, this pressure and will be able to achieve a revision of this monopolar world order.”

No doubt.

YOU CAN WALK AT NIGHT
As Russian officials have rightly noted, the Taliban are making good progress in nation-building.

Although the country has serious economic problems and terrorist groups continue to operate, the risk of political and economic collapse is assessed as minimal, and the country has also managed to overcome crime and make the lives of citizens safer.

According to Askerov, the crime situation has become much better than during the reign of Ashraf Ghani and the Americans, and during that period he also had the opportunity to visit Afghanistan.

“ You can now walk around Kabul at night, during the day, at any time of the day and in any area, it is absolutely safe. The only problem is pickpockets, but this is only a problem of large markets,” said the orientalist.

Again, Mr. Askerov is not female.

At the same time, security is ensured in a much “softer” way than during the American occupation.

“Of course, there are many guards and checkpoints in the city, but they do not create the impression of a police state, as during the American presence with rough searches and searches of everyone. On the streets you can also see employees of the ministry of “commanding what is good and prohibiting what is bad” (morality police), but they act unobtrusively, politely and rather try to explain or explain something rather than prohibit and detain, so this does not cause any rejection or conflicts,” Askerov noted.

No, no, perish the thought.

At the same time, he said, some problems remain, despite the optimism of Afghans:

“The population perceives current changes positively and looks to the future with hope. But, of course, Afghans live poorly, and even the wealthiest live very modestly by our standards; economic problems have not gone away.”

Nevertheless, the Taliban still managed to somewhat stabilize the economy.

Afghanistan's foreign trade fell after they seized power. However, despite the decline in imports, most of the country's income now comes from taxes.

As experts note, the Afghan economy is no longer in a state of free fall and appears to be frozen in a precarious balance, albeit at the lowest level.

Modest positive trends include lower inflation, exchange rate stability, some recovery in imports, a more than doubling of exports,

…opium and heroin, right?

stable or slightly increased labor demand and continued wage levels.

Of course, the problem of Afghan drug trafficking remains.

Opium and heroin, yes.

However, it arose long before the Taliban came to power and was “chronic” for this country.

The Taliban took control of it during their first tenure, and never let go.

Nevertheless, the IEA leadership is making efforts to limit the production of opiates.

Thus, according to a 2023 UN report, poppy cultivation in southern Afghanistan fell by more than 80% as a result of Taliban campaigns to stop its use in opium production. For example, the decline in poppy cultivation in Helmand province has dropped by 99%.

In November 2023, a UN report found that throughout Afghanistan, poppy cultivation had fallen by more than 95%, depriving the country of its status as the world's largest opium producer.

The warehouses were full to bursting. No point in producing more until that supply is used up and the price increases.

Although Iran does not agree with such optimistic assessments, since, according to Iranian officials, supplies of opium and heroin from Afghanistan to their country continued in large volumes.

See?

The Taliban have also made progress in dialogue and taking into account the interests of ethno-confessional minorities living in the country, primarily the Shiite Hazaras, who were able to gain access to some leadership positions, which may indicate the movement’s readiness to follow the path of forming an inclusive government.

Tokens to shut up the rubes.

However, problems remain with the Uzbek and Tajik minorities, who are dissatisfied with the fact that their representatives, not associated with the Taliban, are still not represented in the IEA power structures.

"RED TROOPS"
An important factor in recognizing the Taliban and removing terrorist labels from the movement is its success in suppressing the activity and presence of international terrorist organizations such as ISIS and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.

It is significant that the Americans, who spent 20 years trying to eradicate the brainchild of Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan, were forced to recognize this success. But as soon as they left, the Taliban themselves solved this problem.

In particular, as Christy Abizaid, director of the US National Counterterrorism Center, stated on September 11, 2023, "al-Qaeda is in its historic decline in Afghanistan and Pakistan and its resurgence is unlikely."

She also cited declassified data that the group had "lost access to targets, leadership talent, group cohesion, grassroots commitment, and supportive local environment." She said the terrorist organization's ability to threaten from Afghanistan " is at its lowest level" since it moved there in 1998.

The Taliban were also able to suppress the activity of ISIS and its local affiliate ISIS-K in Afghanistan.

Within Afghanistan, anyway. Or perhaps just reports of their activities. But not abroad.

After a significant increase in their activity, due to the security vacuum created in some parts of the country after the US withdrawal, the Taliban changed this dynamic, depriving the terrorists of control over certain territories that they were able to acquire by following the Americans fleeing the country.

Their activities were dealt a blow, and activity over the past year has decreased significantly, which was noted in the relevant reports of international structures.

It is noted that the Taliban were able to conduct a successful campaign against ISIS-X and eliminated most of the sleeper cells that were ready to continue terrorist attacks in Afghan cities. After a surge in the number of terrorist attacks in the first months after the Taliban came to power, their number begins to decline as a result of counter-terrorism measures by the IEA security structures.

In particular, in 2022–2023. the number of terrorist attacks and other attacks by ISIS-X has decreased significantly. If in the first year of Taliban rule (2021-2022) there were 314 attacks and assaults, then in 2022-2023. only 69 - that is, less than during any period of activity of the group in Afghanistan since its inception.

The Taliban’s fight against ISIS is systematic and consistent; for this purpose, special counter-terrorism forces have been created in Afghanistan that can effectively counter it.

This counter-terrorism unit is called "Red Squad", or "Sara Kheta" in Pashto.

... also known as Red Unit, Red Brigade, Blood Unit, Danger Group, and Taliban Special Forces Unit. The Taliban’s special forces/shock troops unit was first deployed in Sangin town in Helmand province in 2016, then claimed a victory against ISIS-Khurasan in 2018. They were most active in Kunduz, Baghlan, and Faryab Provinces.

It is divided into several battalions of 300–350 men, selected by field commanders from among the fighters based on their discipline, dedication and skills. Each battalion operates in a separate province, but within the Red Squad there is also a battalion-sized group of the most trained elite forces known as Badri 313.

The Badri 313 Battalion was trained by the Haqqani network and based at Salahaddin Ayyubi Military Operations Academy. There is evidence it was at one point al Qaeda's military arm in Pakistan, with members gleaned from the Taliban and Pakistan’s pet jihadi groups including Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, and Jundallah, used for nasty attacks on the Pakistani army under the leadership of Ilyas Kashmiri (until 2011) followed by Shah Sahib.

In emergency situations, units work together to cover a multi-province area.

It was the “Red Detachments” that defeated the ISIS in the province of Nangarhar, which was a stronghold of terrorists. After which part of the “Red Detachment” battalions was transferred to the province of Kunar, which was soon also cleared of ISIS militants.

Of course, it is too early to talk about a complete victory over ISIS in Afghanistan.

But a significant decrease in terrorist activity allows the Taliban movement to establish economic ties with foreign partners and organize business trips to this country.

Therefore, Russia, acting proactively, can economically enter Afghanistan before others, officially recognizing the Taliban movement as the legitimate Afghan government.

Before this, there were many factors that forced our entrepreneurs to act with caution in Afghanistan, including the fear of persecution for justifying and financing terrorism.

By removing the Taliban from the terrorist lists, Moscow can speed up the implementation of economic projects in Afghanistan and begin absolutely legal, not “gray” investments.

Posted by:badanov

00:00