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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| When will regional Ukrainian elites agree to negotiate on Russia’s terms? |
| 2024-04-03 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Gevorg Mirzayan [REGNUM] Ukraine and the West simultaneously switched in dialogue with Moscow from hawkish to dovish. French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejournet, during his visit to Beijing, expressed hope that his Chinese colleagues would “send a clear signal to Moscow” about the need to sit down at the negotiating table with the Kiev regime. That is, translating from diplomatic into Russian, Paris moved from the threat of sending troops to Ukraine to an offer to Russia’s key ally to convince Moscow to start a dialogue. In exchange, Beijing is offered the role of mediator and guarantor of the diplomatic process - something that Chinese diplomacy has been seeking for two years. In turn, the Kiev regime also publicly softened its negotiating position. In an interview with Western media, Vladimir Zelensky actually abandoned his demand “first the complete expulsion of Russian troops from the 2014 borders, and only then negotiations.” Zelensky said that the combination of total anti-Russian sanctions and “the expulsion of Russian troops to the borders in 2022” will lead to Vladimir Putin allegedly being ready for dialogue. And then, within the framework of dialogue, it will be possible to demand from Russia “de-occupation of the entire Ukrainian territory.” That is, Crimea. UKRAINE HAS PROBLEMS IN ALL AREAS The change in position is explained by several factors. Firstly, Zelensky’s race against time. The next presidential elections were not held in Ukraine, and on May 21, 2024, he becomes simply citizen Zelensky - his term as head of state expires. This means that all his signatures and guarantees have no legal significance - Russia can absolutely legally refuse any negotiations with him. Therefore, it is necessary to involve Moscow in the negotiation process until it loses its powers. Secondly, it is important to satisfy our American partners. Washington sees the situation on the battlefield and understands that in the coming months - that is, during the US election campaign - Ukraine may suffer serious defeats on the battlefield. And this will directly affect the ratings of President Joe Biden , who has invested tens of billions of American taxpayer dollars in the Ukrainian project. The Americans need a truce in Ukraine - and they are extremely unhappy that Kyiv listens not to them, but to those who need maximum escalation. To the British. “Several decisions of a terrorist nature, which should have been agreed upon with the Americans, were implemented without agreement. We see that the vector of London has become decisive from the point of view of domestic policy and the actions of the same Zelensky and Ermak . But it’s not London that provides the bulk of the money and weapons. It turns out that the States pay, but cannot order normal music,” explains Vladimir Rogov, chairman of the “We are together with Russia” movement, to IA Regnum . In order to normalize relations with Washington, Zelensky is showing his ability to negotiate and is ready to sit down at the negotiating table, and is also changing the personnel of his administration. “Actually, this is related to the dismissal of a significant part of the employees and advisers of the president’s office. This is nothing more than the beginning of bargaining through personnel appointments with the American elite. Zelensky understands that these concessions must be made in order to remain in power in at least some format,” Rogov believes. Thirdly, Kyiv and Brussels understand that as a result of large-scale Russian offensive operations, Ukraine may lose significant territories. And this fact, multiplied by serious economic, military-technical, mobilization and electoral (absence of an elected president) problems of the regime, can lead to its collapse. Therefore, it is necessary to drag Moscow into the negotiation process - into negotiations for the sake of negotiations. SEARCH FOR A NEGOTIATOR Russia, however, easily reads Western games. Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and other representatives of the Russian government have said many times that Moscow does not need negotiations for the sake of negotiations. We need a constructive conversation that will result in the conclusion of serious agreements - with guarantees of their implementation. After all, experience has already accumulated in concluding agreements with zero implementation - two stages of the Minsk agreements, the Istanbul agreements of the spring 2022 model. Therefore, it makes no sense for Russia to sit down at the negotiating table with the outgoing Zelensky, whose signature and guarantees will have no meaning in 50 days. At the same time, the West can offer Russia a legitimate negotiator from the Ukrainian side. “If there is no president, his powers are transferred to the speaker of parliament. He has the right to negotiate and sign documents,” former deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Spiridon Kilinkarov tells IA Regnum . Now this post is occupied by Ruslan Stefanchuk . He remains a legitimate speaker even after the expiration of the Rada’s powers: according to Ukrainian law, in the event of a martial law regime, the Rada is indeed not re-elected. However, it is possible that the speaker will be replaced by the start of negotiations. “Stefanchuk is now trying to escape from his position. He begs to be allowed to go to the Academy of Sciences or somewhere else. After all, a post in the Verkhovna Rada is not only money, but also responsibility. Understanding that, having signed any document, you may not live long - in the literal sense. Therefore, deputies spend money to leave the post for which they were previously paid,” says Vladimir Rogov. He suggests that Stefanchuk’s predecessor, Dmitry Razumkov, may be offered as a negotiator . He is now being prepared to return to the information field. But there is another problem - the outgoing political elite of the West. DIVE INTO REALITY Many potential Western negotiators are effectively lame ducks. In the summer of 2024, elections to the European Parliament should take place - and, accordingly, re-elections of the head of the European Commission. In November there are presidential elections in the United States. Elections in the UK will be held no later than January 2025. “Only Russia as a player has already rebooted. Its leadership has some time to implement agreements that can be reached as a result of negotiations. And there is no point in negotiating with the outgoing political elite,” Spiridon Kilinkarov is sure. Therefore, the only constructive negotiations in which Russia may now be interested are discussions not with the West, not with Zelensky/Stefanchuk/Razumkov, but with Ukrainian regional elites. With those who will remember the formula, as old as the world, that “to betray in time is not to betray, but to foresee.” Who can seriously facilitate the process of liberating the territories. However, to do this they need to be immersed in reality. “We can negotiate with regional elites, but subject to success on the front line. The greater our successes, the faster local elites will make contact and communicate. Moreover, the elites are not only of historical Novorossiya, but also of regions considered Bandera. They will even run earlier,” predicts Vladimir Rogov. Perhaps this is related to the recent words of Sergei Lavrov that the issue of recognizing Zelensky after May 21 may become irrelevant. “As for May 20 and what will happen on May 21, let’s live until then. Maybe there won’t be any need to admit anything,” the minister said. |
| Posted by:badanov |