[Red State] Day by day, poll by poll, embarrassing gaffe by embarrassing gaffe, things just keep getting worse for Joe Biden's reelection efforts. Now, as the Free Beacon's Matthew Continetti informs us, the campaign (that is, whoever is running it; it's readily apparent that old Joe has very little idea what's going on) is growing increasingly desperate. Mr. Continetti makes some interesting points.
On February 29, Bloomberg News released another set of swing-state polls showing Donald Trump in the lead. The polls had Trump narrowly ahead of President Joe Biden nationwide, with Trump's margins in swing states ranging from plus 2 points in Michigan to plus 9 points in North Carolina.
This is now routine. According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Trump has held a national lead over Biden since last September. At this writing, he leads in every swing state except Pennsylvania—where he is a single point behind the incumbent. Yes, the polls in GOP primary contests have slightly overestimated Trump's support. But Trump still won those contests. And his edge in battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada is not slight.
The two impeachments, the 91 counts across 4 indictments, the huge civil penalties, the almost-a-decade-long trail of controversy and scandal, the warnings from former senior officials, the shadow of January 6, 2021—none of it has sidelined Trump. None of it has changed the dynamic of the 2024 presidential race. Biden is losing.
So far, I would caution Mr. Continetti - so far. It's a long way until Election Day, and a lot can happen between now and then. Predictions are notoriously hard to make, especially about the future, but trends aren't hard to discern, and the trends aren't looking good for Joe Biden. With every new poll that surfaces, it's easy to imagine Donald Trump's grin growing wider, until by the time the hardcore campaign season starts after Labor Day—assuming Joe Biden lasts that long, which is anything but certain—he will bear a striking resemblance to the Cheshire Cat. |