by Gevorg Mirzayan
[REGNUM] The new leadership of the Ukrainian army, taking over affairs after the change of command from the previous commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny to people loyal to Zelensky, will have to pass the most important exam. Avdeevsky. And the entire further existence of both Alexander Syrsky and the Kiev regime as a whole depends on this exam.
Syrsky’s strategy is already clear - he intends to hold Avdiivka at any cost. Use it as a military breakwater and a political argument, even though it is already in a semicircle of encirclement, and the main road along which the garrison is supplied is about to be cut off.
Unlike Artemovsk, it was prepared for defense for many years. They thought through every part of the huge fortification into which the city was turned. It became a large fortress, inside of which equipment and supplies could be stored behind walls or in underground shelters and soldiers could be sheltered. Taking advantage of this, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to inflict maximum damage on the Russian Armed Forces, which is difficult to do while standing on the defensive in an open field.
Without breaking this line of defense, it is difficult to move forward and liberate parts of the Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions occupied by the Kyiv regime. Therefore, if there is anywhere to resist the Russians, then in Avdeevka. If Artemovsk was called a “fortress” for the sake of a catchphrase, then here it is actually available.
From a political point of view, Avdiivka is, in fact, a test of the Zelensky regime’s survival. “Ukraine is interested in demonstrating to both internal and external consumers the persistent struggle for each populated area. And for external consumers, this is a reason to provide assistance, to give finances, money, weapons,” explains PRISP Center expert Petr Skorobogatiy to the news agency Regnum. Zelensky will try to prove to the West that he is able to fight in order to still receive this aid package that they dream of. As Arakhamia said: “We will hold out for two more months.”
The defense of Avdiivka is no less important for domestic politics—May is approaching, when the current president’s term in office expires. “For the domestic consumer, this is, first of all, resilience, a demonstration that the country is fighting, there will be no negotiations, and the sacrifices the country is making are not in vain,” explains Skorobogaty. — As soon as Zelensky gives up, as soon as he demonstrates that Ukraine is ready, even temporarily, to leave, leave, retreat, and so on, questions will arise for him regarding that very first decision at the beginning of the war: what is all this for then? was?"
That is why the most combat-ready units are being transferred to the city. For example, the third assault brigade, consisting of militants of the Nazi group “Azov” banned in the Russian Federation. In Avdeevka itself there are three brigades: 110th, 116th and 56th. On the flanks from the north is the 47th Brigade.
This is the one that was equipped with American Bradleys and was supposed to break through the front line to Tokmak. Russian nationalists were also transferred there. “Nominally corps, but in fact battalions. They understand that no one will take them prisoner, so they fight there quite fiercely,” Andrei Klintsevich, head of the Center for the Study of Military and Political Conflicts, tells IA Regnum.
However, the problem is that this strategy is unlikely to work.
Firstly, because Kiev does not have sufficient reserves to push back Russian troops. Purely theoretically, experts say, if they had large reserves, it would be possible to “press” in the direction of the south, southwestern flank, and slightly expand the neck. But this will only delay the end of the garrison for a short time.
Secondly, Russian troops are really cutting off the communications of the Avdeevsky group. And no matter what the reserves in the bunkers are, they will run out sooner or later. And the human resource will run out even faster.
Thirdly, our attack aircraft can now also use the Avdeevka fortifications. “Now in the northeast we are quite effectively wedging into the central part, we have caught on to a residential area, we are expanding it, we are moving along exactly the communications that they created. And this allows us, without fear of FPV strikes, to move from one cover to another. Something that cannot be done in open space,” notes Klintsevich.
As a result, according to the expert, the level of losses suffered by Ukrainian Armed Forces units there is a demonstration of the principle “entry is a ruble, exit is two.” And it is impossible to withdraw them centrally, since they are immediately guaranteed to come under attack.
Finally, fourthly, we do not follow the lead of the Kiev regime and do not send troops to slaughter. “Our military says: yes, we have reserves, yes, we can go forward. But it is very important that we do this very gently and carefully. We do not push for any dates. We protect our personnel. It is very important. We don’t need unnecessary victories for eventful things that are fraught with huge losses,” says Klintsevich. Because we take care of our soldiers (after all, the Russian army is now replenished primarily with volunteers). We are creating a professional backbone with which we can liberate the remaining territories of the former Ukraine.
Representatives of the Kyiv regime claim that the liberation of the city for Russians is important from a political point of view, they say, for the elections. However, in fact, the task of storming a strong fortified area with a coke plant is dictated primarily by military necessity. This settlement, like a splinter, is part of the Donetsk agglomeration. At any moment, having increased the grouping of forces and means there, they can threaten the center of Donetsk.
The Ukrainians chose the option of a long defense, the maximum rate on the depletion of the advancing troops, also because they want to prepare reserve and reserve lines. We must understand that the Russian army will not go out into the open spaces any further, it will not flow like a stream further to the Dnieper. It will be met by good fortified lines, but we do not yet have the readiness to use all available reserves and resources.
But, on the other hand, Syrsky’s strategy of drawing the most trained Ukrainian units into the Avdeevka crater is precisely creating new opportunities for the Russian army in other directions.
“For Ukraine, the transfer of reserves could end badly. They will most likely pull them away from some other sectors of the front, where we will not fail to take advantage of this. We are already putting pressure on the Kupyansk direction. We are also putting pressure on the direction of Artemovsk. There we are now approaching the settlement of Chasov Yar, and they have to build new lines of defense there,” says Klintsevich.
In fact, the front is thinning in all these directions. And experts do not rule out that in the foreseeable future a collapse may occur there, the trigger of which will be the fall of Avdiivka.
Yes, at the moment it seems unlikely. According to Petro Skorobogaty, the Ukrainians defend themselves very staunchly, stubbornly grasping any defensive positions. Moreover, we are talking not only about trained troops, of which Kyiv does not have very many now, but also about mobilized ones, which can be very quickly integrated into the defense system.
However, the big defeat that will inevitably end in Avdiivka is quite capable of leading to some kind of psychological breakdown among Ukrainian soldiers. Moreover, in the absence of the “father-commander”, which Zaluzhny was.
“This was precisely the commander-in-chief who survived the most difficult, as it seems to Ukrainians, beginning times, who in a sense acts as the savior of the country. Who did not run away, did not go over to the enemy’s side, recalls Skorobogaty. “ The attitude towards Syrsky is completely different, and in case of problems at the front, Zelensky will be remembered for this replacement, and Syrsky will be remembered for all the boilers and his attitude towards soldiers as cannon fodder. And then, probably, Zaluzhny’s dismissal could backfire very seriously.”
Does Syrsky himself understand this?
Surely, he is still a military professional. However, he will still do what Zelensky tells him, he will carry out any, even the most reckless orders that will lead to the death of a huge number of people. These are all bad moves. But there are simply no good ones left for Ukraine.