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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| 'The Russians are actually coming!' Military analyst tries to warn the West |
| 2024-02-08 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Irina Alksnis [RIA] In recent months, publications devoted to the difficult, critical, and in some cases even catastrophic situation in Kyiv have become commonplace in the Western media mainstream. However, even against such a “zrad” background, the article by military analyst and retired Australian Major General Mike Ryan in the latest Foreign Affairs looks remarkable and very unusual. The fact is that he allowed himself to touch on a topic that, it seems, other Western experts simply do not risk touching. Most of them, speaking about the sad Ukrainian prospects, raise the problems that the country is dealing with - from rampant corruption to the exhaustion of mobilization resources. As for the Russian factor, it is mainly considered quite generally: “the aggressor turned out to be too large, powerful and rich a country whose capabilities were underestimated.” For Ryan, the essence of the current processes is that Russia and its army are better adapting to what is happening, and at the strategic level. The article is called “Russia’s advantage in adaptation.” As a military analyst, he consistently examines the areas in which Moscow radically restructured its work and made breakthroughs during the Northern Military District, seizing the initiative even in those areas where Kiev initially had an advantage (the clearest example is UAVs). Russia's centralized and systematic approach initially appeared to be a weakness, as many processes were slow to start and its military-state machine looked too clumsy, unable to effectively respond to new challenges. Here the author could not resist making a textbook comparison with a bear. However, in the end, this turned out to be a strategic advantage for our country: this approach allows us not only to solve immediate problems on the battlefield, but also to generally rebuild the army and the military-industrial complex to the requirements and conditions of modern warfare, be it command and control of troops, the organization of offensive and defensive operations, mobilization of resources, increasing the survivability of personnel and equipment. In such conditions, individual enemy successes are not able to reverse the general trend. And here Mike Ryan touched on another extremely unusual topic, which is a silent figure in Western analytics. True, he did not dare to say it directly. The entire article is devoted to the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, and the West, in the author’s portrayal, is strongly in the background and plays a minor military role in what is happening. Such an approach, performed by an obviously intelligent and knowledgeable specialist in his field, looks, of course, frivolous - as if a small child playing hide-and-seek covers his face with his palms and is sure that he hid himself well. For example, as one of Kiev’s military achievements, the author named the ability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to launch long-range strikes deep into Russian territory over the past two years. But this became possible solely due to the fact that the West provided Kyiv with the appropriate weapons, instructors and - not excluded - even crews. Here, of course, one can assume that Ryan simply needed to give examples of at least some successes and achievements of Kyiv, and since it does not have any of its own, it is necessary to pass off Western assistance as such. But there is a suspicion that in fact the author was guided by more subtle and complex motives. In addition to “making a diagnosis,” Mike Ryan in his article paid a lot of attention to “prescribing treatment.” The list of what Ukraine must do to reverse the processes fatal to itself is impressive, starting with the development of “its own strategic approach to learning and adaptation.” However, if you read it carefully, it becomes obvious that the author’s main advice is not directed to Kyiv, but much further to the west. What is worth mentioning is that “the key lesson of the 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive is that the combined arms doctrine that NATO trained Ukrainian troops is outdated.” But this is not just NATO material for training its proxies - the combined arms doctrine of the North Atlantic Alliance as such. And during the fighting in Ukraine, its inconsistency with current realities and modern war was proven. Essentially, Ryan's article is an alarming alarm addressed to Washington, Brussels and other Western capitals: wake up! The Russians are successfully restructuring their army and military-industrial complex to the latest military trends, testing new solutions, algorithms and weapons in combat conditions, while NATO, led by the Americans, rests on the laurels of a rapidly aging system, simply wasting the Ukrainians and the contents of their own arsenals. However, a military analyst cannot say this openly and directly, since this goes completely against the dominant and mandatory agenda in the West. As a result, he is forced to resort to Aesopian language and allusions. But the refusal of decision-makers on both sides of the Atlantic to see the real state of affairs practically guarantees that Ryan's allegorical alarmism will remain a voice crying in the wilderness. Well, so much the better for us. And for the rest of the world. |
| Posted by:badanov |
| #5 Now, having read the conclusion, it seems Irina Alksnis has violated one of Napoleon's favorite maxims: Never interfere with the enemy when he is in the process of destroying himself. |
| Posted by: Abu Uluque 2024-02-08 12:30 |
| #4 As for the Russian factor, it is mainly considered quite generally: “the aggressor turned out to be too large, powerful and rich a country whose capabilities were underestimated.” Yes, it's clear now that Putin underestimated Biden and NATO. He wasn't ready for them but he's working hard to catch up. |
| Posted by: Abu Uluque 2024-02-08 12:20 |
| #3 Like to see his portfolio of stcks also, I bet a few make weapons. |
| Posted by: Chris 2024-02-08 11:56 |
| #2 At this rate I will be dead before they get here, I'm 45 |
| Posted by: Chris 2024-02-08 11:55 |
| #1 'The Russians are actually coming!' That's what usually happens when you invade Russia* - they follow you home. *To Russians, Ukraine is Russia** and Ukrainians are brothers - retarded & psychotically violent, but brothers. **To them: UN, International Law, etc... is the same as gender fluidity. Mumbling from the Animal Farm. |
| Posted by: Grom the Reflective 2024-02-08 07:16 |