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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| The 23rd month of the war. Offensive defensive |
| 2024-01-23 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. [LB] If you carefully read the summaries of our General Administration, you can see reports of "positional battles" in all directions every day. Among the reasons is the weather. And also the lack of resources on both sides for a decisive offensive with at least limited objectives. Moreover, the Russians, throwing into the crucible of battles everything they have at hand, are not able, even hypothetically achieving tactical success in any direction, to develop it into an operational one. There is simply nothing to develop. But this fact is not a reason to relax. by Viktor Kevlyuk Three hot shops today, where the enemy's attempts to consistently and persistently create some kind of victory are being followed, are Synkivka in the Kharkiv region, Avdiyivka and Novomykhailivka in the Donetsk region. The hot spot is the section Robotyne — Verbove, where the enemy, with the forces of two amphibious assault divisions, the 7th and 76th, has been trying to eliminate our bridgehead for the last three months, formed by the incredible efforts of brigades from the operational-strategic group of troops "Tavria" last summer. And the enemy is doing it slowly, but it succeeds: the defense forces hold about two kilometers along the first position of the enemy's defensive line. It's sad, but it is what it is. Krynyk remains the epicenter of the battles on the left bank of the Kherson region, where our marines - real titans - write the history of the Marine Corps of the Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in blood. Mostly hostile. The 70th division of the Russians with the forces of the 70th motorized rifle regiment, with the support of one or the other, is trying to retake Krynky, but every time something does not go according to plan. Colossal losses of people, armored vehicles. A couple of weeks ago, the enemy had to conduct an entire operation to evacuate damaged tanks and BMPs from the battlefield and its surroundings. Such activity is an obvious sign of a lack of combat vehicles for further attacks. It is not easy for us there either: the Dnipro and the straits are frozen, delivering anything and taking away the wounded is an extremely difficult task. All the more — to expand the bridgehead. And this should be done in order to drive away the enemy who wants to shoot at peaceful towns and villages on the right bank. The downing of several enemy bombers and even an entire A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft, the destruction of the IL-22 air command post significantly eases the life of the defenders of the bridgehead and everyone on the right bank. Let's go back to hot shops. Sinkivka. The key to Kupyansk. The enemy really needs to get to the eastern bank of the Oskil River. Fighting continues on the outskirts of Synkivka, where the enemy's 25th brigade is clinging to every groove in order to crawl into Kharkiv region. Last week, the enemy on the north-eastern outskirts of the village won back 200 m of positions that they lost the week before last. Other points of tension are Kislivka and Petropavlivka, where fierce clashes are taking place over forest strips. The picture is as follows: the enemy rushes to Kupyansk along the roads Liman First — Kupyansk and Svatove — Kupyansk, and in parallel plans to reach Oskil on the section from Dvorichna to Synkivka. The enemy's 15th motorized rifle and 26th tank regiments operate in the directions Yagidne — Ivanivka and Yagidne — Kislivka. The enemy's 27th brigade, which wants to bypass Stelmakhivka from the north, is trying to support these efforts. Nothing good can come of this, so everything is as Comrade Zhukov commanded: more people are needed. The brigade was reinforced by the 1431st regiment of territorial troops and assault groups of the 7th motorized rifle regiment of the 11th corps of the Baltic Fleet. From the point of view of military science, it all looks wild: a brigade reinforced by a regiment? Is the regiment advancing in the brigade's advance lane? Who manages whom? How do they interact? Was the regiment simply distributed to replace the losses of the brigade? Addicts, in one word. Call the police. The defense forces hold several convenient positions to the east of Sinkivka and from there put an end to any attempts by the enemy to move west with any significant forces. Cool shower. Is Ukraine transitioning to active strategic defense? Avdievka. Just hell. A parody of the elections in Russia — March 17, that's why the army set the task of capturing Avdiivka by March 1, at the very least by March 10. That's why the strain of forces and resources. The ground sometimes freezes, then thaws, the weather is mostly not suitable for flying (a friend said that in a month he raised the H10 Poseidon UAV into the air only four times - the clouds are too low. The basis of operations in the air is on maviks and fpv. The enemy’s plan is to surround the garrison of the Forces defenses in Avdiivka, so he is trying to break through from the north through Stepovy to Orlivka and there from the south from Vodyanyi through Severny and Tonenka. The intensity of the assaults increases every week, but the brigades of the "Tavria" group stand firm, in Stepovy they even drove the enemy to the eastern outskirts. And he was surprised by such a turn, only on January 19 he attacked 10 times, but on the morning of January 20, everything burned down on the same outskirts of Stepovoy, although he advanced 100 m south of the village. Some enemy commander had an epiphany, and he or they decided not to attack the Koksochim head-on, but to bypass him. Thus, the 114th Donetsk brigade tried to attack, advancing from the direction of Veseli and Kamianka. I don't know what they have with navigation, but somehow the brigade headquarters did not notice on the map the ponds that had to be bypassed, dividing the forces in half. It is clear that it is easier to hit the enemy successively than at the same time, and "Tavria" did not lose this opportunity. In addition, the Defense Forces hold positions near the sand pit, which contributes to the defense of the coxsack. Ours destroyed the attempts of the 30th brigade of the Russians to reach this line and thus secure the left flank of the 114th. As they say: here you go! The result — the enemy didn't succeed, a pile of burned equipment, a lot of Russians lying on the field between the ponds and near the quarry. The tension of the battles is illustrated by the video of our 47th brigade, which recorded how the Bradley infantry fighting vehicle dismantled the enemy T-90 in a completely gentlemanly duel, of course, the newest and analog-fired. Not everything is so fluffy in other areas of the Avdiyiv Defense District. Small groups of the enemy's infantry have slightly advanced into the residential sector in the eastern part of the city. Novomykhailivka. The enemy is advancing to the highway Maryinka — Vugledar. and "Tavria" cannot stop him yet. Only holds back promotion. The intention of the Russians was to advance along the Mar'inka-Vugledar road to get behind the 72nd Brigade of the Defense Forces at the Vugledar bridgehead and eliminate this salient. The enemy's actions show that it is unprincipled for him to surround someone on the bridgehead, cut him open with a frontal blow, or in any way force the black Zaporozhians to retreat from their positions. The enemy is muddled by the bridgehead itself, which is convenient for further actions in the direction of Volnovakha and Mariupol. In order to implement this plan, the Russian command in the Maryinka area began to regroup forces: the 103rd regiment of the 150th division of the enemy's 8th army is now operating in the Maryinka-Pobyeda direction, and the reinforced battalion of the 155th brigade of marine infantry of the Pacific fleet, units of the 39th brigade, which are also operating from the direction of Sweetkoy, stretched in the direction of Slavne — Novomykhailivka. Now the Defense Forces are holding Novomykhailivka, destroying attempts to capture the settlement and stubbornly resisting the enemy's attempts to advance our troops in the direction of Kostyantynivka. It should be expected that the enemy will concentrate its efforts north of Novomykhailivka and attack in the direction of Antonivka and Kostyantynivka through the village of Pobeda, pinning our forces in Novomykhailivka with frontal attacks. But if the enemy's 57th brigade looms in the Vugledar area, then this will become an indicator of the "complexity" of solving the problem of the Vugledar salient: except for a frontal attack to cut the battle formations of the "Tavria" near Vugledar, there is nothing for it to do there. The Russians stirred up in the Lyman direction, but it is too early to say anything here, let's wait a bit. If we look at these events from a strategic level, the conclusion is as follows: the enemy has the initiative and determines the place, pace and scale of its operations. This fits into the vision of "active strategic defense" announced by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Although the strategy has a rather conservative look, there is no other way to form the necessary reserves, train them and comprehensively provide them. Only in this way can the system of rotations at the front be restored and the troops rest. I would like it to happen in half a year, but the reality is harsher. Probably a year. Our partners' doctrine defines active defense as "the use of limited offensive actions and counterattacks to block contested territory or enemy positions." Therefore, the Defense Forces will spend this year not only in the trenches. An important aspect of ensuring active defense is the availability of offensive capabilities. And such actions are possible along the entire front line, and the places of their implementation will be determined by the places of concentration of these possibilities. In the absence of the latter, counterattacks will only deplete our already limited resources. The former Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Andriy Zahorodnyuk, put it well in his interview with the Financial Times : "Focusing on defense without any offensive component would be a mistake of historic proportions for Ukraine." The mistake of our General Assembly will show the world Ukraine's inability to win the war. The strategic pause taken by the Defense Forces automatically gives the enemy time and opportunities to bring themselves to a combat-ready state, to deploy operational and strategic reserves, for which Ukraine will later have to pay in blood, tears and destruction. In order to minimize this negativity, it is worth deploying a support operation, within the framework of which strikes the enemy's infrastructure, logistics, and in the strategic and operational depth of its territory. At the same time, the enemy will take similar measures against our state, affecting in every possible way the components of our defense potential, necessary for a strategic offensive. And about partners: US President Joe Biden, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Director of National Intelligence Avril Gaines met with US lawmakers on January 17 and urged them to support additional security assistance to Ukraine. They stated that air defense systems and artillery ammunition are key needs, and these stocks may be depleted without additional US assistance, which would deprive Ukraine of the ability to launch long-range strikes on occupied Crimea and the aggressor's Black Sea fleet. It is impossible to allow even a short-term pause in supplies, because it gives Russia a chance to resume the pace of accumulation of weapons produced in the swamps, as well as Iran and North Korea. And about the sad thing: according to the intelligence estimates of our partners, the war will last at least two years, and according to completely pessimistic estimates - up to five years. |
| Posted by:badanov |