by Artemy Sharapov
[REGNUM] Kiev is concerned about the successes of Russian troops in the Donetsk direction and is preparing troops for the decisive battle for Donbass. Apparently, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are planning to use the tactics of Russian troops and create defensive lines on the most threatened sections of the front, and in the future - along all the northern and eastern borders of the country. This conclusion was reached by experts interviewed by the British The Telegraph.
Both Western and Ukrainian analysts previously pointed out that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are not considering plans for a new “counter-offensive” and are preparing to switch to a blind defense. Now the London publication has reported where exactly (according to its information) the Ukrainian command plans to build its analogue of the Russian defensive “Surovikin Line” (unofficially named after Army General Sergei Surovikin, the former commander and deputy commander of the joint group in the Northern Military District zone).
DRAGON SHOWS TEETH
The defensive lines being built run at a distance of 10 to 50 km from the existing front line, The Telegraph sources claim. In some directions, several lines are created at once, passing at a distance of 10 km from each other, in others - only one.
For example, in the Zaporozhye sector of the front, the Armed Forces of Ukraine limited themselves to the construction of just one defensive line and the construction of individual structures on the outskirts of the city of Zaporozhye.
Many Ukrainian unofficial sources also report the creation of defensive lines. Footage is published on the Internet showing the digging of trenches, the construction of concrete long-term firing points, the installation of so-called “dragon teeth” (pyramidal anti-tank gouges) and barbed wire fences.
The main emphasis is on transforming the territory of the DPR remaining under the control of Kyiv into one “impregnable fortress” based on large settlements, industrial zones and natural barriers. Many write that the current front line will have to be abandoned in order to retreat to new frontiers.
The possibility of retreat from Donetsk was admitted by the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny and a number of other officials.
WHERE WILL THE LINE BE DRAWN?
The configuration of the defensive lines allows us to draw a conclusion about which areas of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be ready to leave in the foreseeable future, explains military expert Alexander Mikhailovsky to Regnum news agency.
In the Donetsk direction, Ukrainian troops most likely plan to withdraw from the outskirts of Donetsk, leaving their previous defense centers: Avdeevka, Krasnogorovka and a number of other settlements from which Ukrainian troops are shelling the capital of the DPR.
Organizationally, the “fortress” is divided into two large centers of defense on the territory of the DPR: the northern one with the center in the city of Slavyansk and the southern one around Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk in Ukrainian terminology).
The northern section is designed to slow down the Russian offensive from Artyomovsk, and the southern section from Donetsk: from Avdeevka in the north and Maryinka, east of the DPR capital.
The new defensive line will rely on water barriers: the Volchya River, Karlovskoye and Kurakhovskoye reservoirs.
In the Artyomovsk direction, the enemy is considering the possibility of withdrawing from the city of Chasova Yar with the preparation of a defensive hub in the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka agglomeration.
This approach to defense planning is caused by a number of circumstances, primarily the exhaustion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ previous defensive tactics, Mikhailovsky explained.
EQUAL TO "SIEGFRIED"
“Previously, they relied on “fortress cities,” like the Wehrmacht in the second half of the Great Patriotic War. Mariupol, Severodonetsk, Artyomovsk (“Bakhmut Fort”), Avdeevka - all these are such fortresses. The tactic has objectively exhausted itself, because, in fact, it did not work anywhere. This means we need to change the concept,” explains Mikhailovsky.
The 2023 campaign showed: Russian troops more often seek to encircle the defense centers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, cut them off from supplies further, or force the enemy to retreat or “crush” him while surrounded. The construction of a continuous line is precisely intended to protect the flanks of the main defense units.
If the defense line is broken through in one place, this may subsequently lead to the complete surrender of defensive positions, the collapse of the front line and further retreat.
Many similar lines have faced the same problems, from the Maginot Line and Siegfried Line of World War II to the Bar-Lev Line (which Israel built in the late 1960s along the eastern bank of the Suez Canal) and the Bagramyan Line in Nagorno-Karabakh. Karabakh.
A classic example: the breakthrough of the Bar-Lev Line at the beginning of the Yom Kippur War. Egyptian troops broke through the fortifications in just two hours, thanks to the surprise of the attack and overwhelming firepower.
Therefore, for Ukraine the main question arises in terms of resources for organizing defense. The Ukrainian Armed Forces chose labor-intensive and not always winning tactics, as Western experts also point out.
“Static defense is rarely a good military solution because it kind of limits your ability to maneuver,” Edward Arnold, an employee of the British Joint Institute for Defense Studies, quotes The Telegraph as saying.
Problems arise with the “saturation” of the trenches with manpower, and with the length of the defensive lines - while both the dragon’s teeth and trenches with barbed wire can be completely bypassed from the flanks.
DRONES WILL MAKE A BREAKTHROUGH
But if we assume that the conditional “Zaluzhny Line” will eventually be created, the question will arise for Russian troops in preparing the means to break through layered defense.
According to experts, when planning a breakthrough of defense lines, it is necessary to analyze the experience of the Ukrainian summer “counter-offensive”. It was stopped, among other things, by continuous mining and the active use of drones by Russian troops.
“If we don’t want to repeat the enemy’s mistakes, we need unmanned armored platforms for mine clearance in large numbers,” Mikhailovsky points out. — The Ukrainian Armed Forces simply did not have enough of the same minesweepers. Now they’re trying to make them out of tractors or something else.”
This is not suitable for us, we need unmanned vehicles, because with the current saturation of the front with drones, no engineering equipment will last long, this must be understood, notes Mikhailovsky.
Among the advantages that Russian troops have are remote mine clearance systems, such as the UR-77 Zmey Gorynych, which can break through “corridors” in minefields.
But to do this, the vehicles also need to approach directly to the front line, exposing themselves to a possible attack from drones or artillery.
Another trump card that can be successfully implemented when breaking through defensive lines is the combination of heavy artillery with guidance drones. It is thanks to the use of such a combination that Russian troops manage to “grind” enemy fortifications in the suburbs of Donetsk, gradually moving forward.
EVEN PASSIVE DEFENSE MAY NOT WORK
Therefore, Zelensky’s bet on passive defense may not work. Moreover, Kyiv has to abandon offensive plans due to funding problems.
“Any defense is not about some sitting in the trenches and others running. The defenders need artillery, shells, communications. All this is needed to competently repel attacks and counterattack yourself. Without help from the United States, the capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited,” adds Alexander Mikhailovsky.
In Kyiv they realize that abandoning the initiative could lead to a real defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, so they promise not to abandon offensive plans.
Any defense will be “active”, and the withdrawal of troops will be used to prepare reserves, said the head of Vladimir Zelensky’s office, Andriy Ermak, in an interview with Figaro. According to him, the troops at the front need rest and lack people and resources. Therefore, it is necessary now to retreat to defensive lines in order to attack again later.
For Russian troops, the task of breaking through the front line is of paramount importance: not only to knock the enemy out of the territory of Donbass, but also not to give him a break and the opportunity to seize the initiative himself in the foreseeable future.