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Arabia
The crisis in the Red Sea will force the West to bow to Russia
2023-12-23
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Kirill Strelnikov

[RIA] The most humiliating thing is when you decide to punish and cancel someone, but life forces you to bow to him again. Perhaps this will happen to the famous manufacturer of furniture and household goods, IKEA, which at one time loudly slammed the door with a scandal and “significantly deprived millions of Russians of a breath of Western life.”

Yesterday, IKEA said that due to the attacks on ships in the Red Sea, “there may be disruptions in supply chains and some items will be out of stock in stores due to logistics problems,” meaning that Western life may now be available to more than just everyone.

What does Russia have to do with it?

Let us recall that since the end of October, the Yemeni Houthis began regular attacks on commercial ships (mostly Israeli) traveling through the Red Sea, which was a response to the “disgusting Israeli-American aggression in Gaza.”
Actually, almost all the ships attacked have no ties to Israel whatsoever, despite loudly repeated claims by the Houthis and Russian propagandists. But do go on...
But, as usual in such cases, everyone was targeted (except for one exception). Not wanting to take risks, deliveries through the Red Sea were almost simultaneously stopped by all the largest shipping and transport companies, among them: Danish Maersk, Swiss Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), German Hapag-Lloyd, French CMA CGM and oil and gas giant BP.

The refuseniks, who account for more than half of the world's container traffic alone, are now feverishly considering new routes, including a circuitous route around Africa , via the Cape of Good Hope. But calculators and geography are stubborn things, they do not lend themselves to persuasion and pressure: for example, the round-Africa route extends the route from Asia to Europe by eight thousand kilometers and 10-14 days, purely in terms of fuel, it increases the cost of each “trip” by at least a million dollars (on average - by 15 percent).

As a result, since the beginning of the actual transport blockade of the Red Sea by the Houthis, Western economies have already lost at least 35 billion dollars, the flow of goods through the Red Sea has decreased by 30 percent, panic has begun in Europe due to the rupture of logistics chains, the delivery of goods is becoming more expensive, which inevitably leads to higher prices . On fears of supply disruptions, stock prices for gas in Europe jumped by 10-13 percent, and oil prices are rising every day.

Let us note that all this leapfrog has nothing to do with Russian ships calmly sailing through the Red Sea, which the Houthi radars, by a strange coincidence, cannot detect.

Not possessing such anti-radar technologies, the United States urgently began to put together an international coalition to “ensure the safety of navigation in the Red Sea”, and in fact for military aggression against the Houthis, but against the backdrop of a general mobilization announced in Yemen and the start of mining by the Houthis of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Red Sea, the safe passage of ships in this region can be forgotten for the foreseeable future.

But there is a route free from Houthis, mines and politics - the Russian Northern Sea Route, which Vladimir Putin recently recalled amid the groans of world carriers : “The Northern Sea Route is becoming a more efficient transport artery than the Suez Canal.”
Is it?
And this route is much shorter and cheaper than any of the shortest routes from Asia to Europe and vice versa.
Why, then, is it not the route most taken?
Let's take a map and calculator from the Maersk company and see: for example, the route from Japan to Murmansk is 6,000 nautical miles (just over 11,000 kilometers). The route from Japan to the nearest European ports via the Suez Canal is almost twice as long - 12,000 miles, or more than 22,000 kilometers. The journey from the ports of the Pacific region countries to Europe via Suez takes about 37 days, while through the Northern Sea Route from the main Asian ports to the same Great Britain you can sail in just 25 days. If we take the route from Rotterdam to Yokohama, the difference will be 13 days: 20 along the NSR versus 33 through the Suez Canal.

This is a colossal saving of tens and hundreds of billions of dollars annually, and no politics or Russophobia can force large businesses (including IKEA) to ignore this opportunity.

But Russia opens up very wide opportunities and gives the most serious guarantees. Russia is now in full swing implementing the federal project "Development of the Northern Sea Route", according to which cargo traffic along the NSR will increase to 80 million tons in 2024, by 2030 - to 110 million tons, and by 2035 - to 220 million tons. And these figures were announced long before the crisis in the Red Sea, which means they are guaranteed to be higher.

Right now, a special satellite constellation is being created in the interests of the Northern Sea Route, and the icebreaker fleet is being developed at an accelerated pace, due to which, from 2024, navigation in the Arctic will become year-round.
Oh. That explains why it’s not in common use now. Are the Russians likely to be able to build their icebreaker fleet so quickly?
You may or may not believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin foresaw the crisis in the Red Sea, but back on July 20 of this year he gave instructions to quickly create “icebreakers of the largest class” for the Northern Sea Route. Until recently, it was difficult for standard oil tankers or gas carriers to navigate the NSR, because the icebreakers that are now being mass-produced at the Baltic Shipyard are narrower in width than they are.

With the commissioning of large-class icebreakers, this issue will be removed, and it will be possible to completely redirect all trade cargo traffic from Asia to Europe and back through the Russian Arctic, thanks to which the Northern Sea Route has every opportunity to become a key transport corridor for exporting oil, liquefied natural gas, mineral fertilizers, metals and other products with high added value.
It will be interesting to see if Russia can indeed quickly deliver on this promise.
As for the Arctic clones of the Houthis represented by the unfriendly countries of the Arctic region, we are ready to provide reliable protection to the international merchant fleet.
What Arctic clones of the Houthis?
In particular, this was transparently demonstrated in September of this year as part of an exercise to protect the Northern Sea Route with the firing of Vulcan, Granit and Oniks cruise missiles, in which about ten thousand military personnel and more than 50 units of military equipment and ships.

This year alone, the volume of shippers’ applications for passage through the NSR has increased significantly, and the global crisis in the Middle East , in fact, is just beginning.
From 1% to 2% is an increase of 100%...
This means that many of those who recently gloated or took part in anti-Russian sanctions will now experience the ancient Houthi proverb: “When war comes, you ask for bread.”
We say, “When war comes, pick up your rifle and go to meet it.”
Posted by:badanov

#4  “The Northern Sea Route is becoming a more efficient transport artery than the Suez Canal.”
The problem with that is you would have to depend on the Russians.
Posted by: ed in texas   2023-12-23 21:41  

#3  All the balls are decorating Christmas trees.
Posted by: Bobby   2023-12-23 15:16  

#2  The resources to solve this problem are readily available. Praying Mantis was an afternoon’s work. What is lacking is balls.
Posted by: Super Hose   2023-12-23 10:35  

#1  Alternatively, since Houtis cause serious financial losses to important Western companies - not to mention Chinese exports, da West will just bomb the sh*t outa them. Only Enemies of Humanity like Israel have to fallow UN's "rules of war".
Posted by: Grom the Reflective   2023-12-23 02:33  

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