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| Flash on the right. How Ukraine is preparing for parliamentary elections, 'which will not happen' |
| 2023-12-08 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Denis Davydov [REGNUM] “There will be no elections,” but Ukrainian sociological firms are measuring the potential results of possible participants. And they show that the political prospects for Zelensky’s party are pretty bad. Just like with the presidential ones. If the current head of state and commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny had entered the second round , the results would have been almost the same: Zelensky - 42%, Zaluzhny - 40%. And if parliamentary elections were to take place in the near future, the first place in them would be taken by the hypothetical “Zaluzhny’s Party,” which was “measured” for the first time. The also conditional “Zelensky Bloc” takes second place - 26.7%, third is the party of another former comedian, and now one of the largest volunteers, Sergei Pritula “August 24” - 7.6%. Also, the five percent barrier is overcome by another non-existent Azov Party* (5.8%) and two real ones - the ruling Servant of the People (5.5%) and Eurosolidarity of ex-President Petro Poroshenko - 5.4%. The rest do not reach 3%. Thus, if you add up the votes of the Servant of the People and Zelensky’s party, you get 32.2%, which is still less than that of the Zaluzhny party. This is, perhaps, the main thing that the possible customers of the sociological study wanted to find out. In a broad sense, an analysis of this situation is necessary to understand the essence of the changes that Ukrainian society is looking forward to (which did not receive the promised victory ) and in which direction these changes can lead it. PARTIES THAT DON'T EXIST First of all, about where the “hypothetical parties” come from. As the head of the very “Rating” group, to which the mentioned study belongs, once explained, sociologists do not have to have an order. They carefully keep their nose to the wind and analyze the market: who may have political prospects. And since ideological parties have long disappeared in Ukraine and only parties of the leadership type remain, standing on the main person, the task looks quite simple. However, there are also customers who are looking for new opportunities and investing in new brands. In the case of Zaluzhny, these are “Western partners” who suggested that, according to Regnum news agency sources in Kiev, he should go into politics a year ago. Then the general refused, but further developments and the conflict with the Office of the President led to the fact that almost everyone was already considering him seriously as a potential competitor to Zelensky. However, as our interlocutors say, a tongue-tied military man may not be able to achieve an independent career. Therefore, negotiations are underway with him about joining Poroshenko’s party, which in some sense will be more convenient. And it will leave Peter himself a chance to compete for power. Now he promotes himself as a nostalgic image, almost like Trump: “When I was there, there was no such a mess.” However, then the number of votes that an EU party can get automatically falls. Showman Sergei Pritula, who deftly steals money from fundraisers, created his party literally on the eve of the “events,” in early February 2022. “August 24” is Ukraine’s Independence Day, and apart from this joyful name, absolutely nothing is known about the intentions and program of Pritula’s project Nothing. And he himself has moderated his political ambitions. “He was greatly squandered after the story with “New Time” (since December last year - New Voice. - Ed.) They released the next issue of the magazine dedicated to those who are “bringing victory closer”, and Pritula was in the foreground, and Zelensky and Zaluzhny are somewhere behind. Everyone was very outraged by this, and after that incident Pritula calmed down and is not talking about politics yet,” Kiev analyst D.tells IA Regnum. The cover of the magazine was redone, however, he notes, this was not a mistake: the publication, like a number of other media assets, belongs to a major businessman of Czech origin, Tomas Fiala. It is he who is behind the creation of a political project for participation in parliamentary and, perhaps, presidential elections. And Fiala’s investment partner, among others, is the fund of American financier George Soros, Soros Fund Management. So the organization of Pritula, who, as we assume, if he enters the elections, will work under the brand of a “party of volunteers,” is obviously a technical project to maintain the presence of Soros in the Ukrainian system of power. Strange at first glance, the “Zelensky Bloc” is also a technical move. His “mono-majority” from Servant of the People has long lost the trust of the voter (already in January 2022 the figures fluctuated around 17%), and if you go to a parliamentary campaign, it is more convenient to work with the president’s personal rating, converting it into votes for the party . Accordingly, the “Azov Party”* is a test of how the faded brand will fare, whether voters remember it and how they will react to a party of refined heroes with stern faces. Now a logical question arises: what is the difference between all these political projects, if all this is an “outbreak from the right”, where everyone stands for the same thing? CHOICE WITHOUT CHOICE The interest of the Americans in rebooting the system of power and replacing the lost Zelensky and his political force with something more manageable was discussed in sufficient detail by IA Regnum . By and large, the difference here is that the same thing can be done in different ways. Surprisingly, this also coincides with the mood in Ukrainian society. As D. explains, women have finally become the main driver of politics in the country, already acting as the main voter in all elections. In their minds, Zaluzhny looks like a bigger party of the world than Zelensky. “In the popular conversations that I hear, Zelya does not spare the soldier, he needs some kind of borders of 1991, and he takes care of them. Because he understands what the front and war are. Zaluzhny also seems to be forced to waste people, but he does it with caution, and Zelensky is always ready for another Bakhmut,” says our interlocutor. In the same way, Poroshenko, who at one time came to power on the slogans of peace and ending the ATO “ not in months, but in hours ,” looks like a reminder of more prosperous times. After all, he had the famous “shake hand” (in a released recording of a conversation with Putin), and under the current leader, laws have been passed prohibiting any negotiations. In addition, if the “military party” cannot have any economic program by definition, the “gunpowder robots” can draw up some kind of development plan, present managers with experience, and this is its big advantage. It is no coincidence that Peter was not allowed to leave the country and hold meetings with the leaders of European countries. Zelensky has long been deprived of the opportunity to talk about something other than “give money and weapons.” Thus, the direction of policy in terms of hostility towards Russia, cultural stereotypes and nation-building seems to be common, but the temperature of the conventional pot is lower. The Greens have already boiled it over high heat, and this is enough for someone else to be considered the opposition. “Figures dating back to mid-November show that confidence in the president has fallen to +32%, less than half that of the still-respected General Zaluzhny (+70%). Ukrainian intelligence officer Kirill Budanov (+45%) also has the best ratings of the president. The same poll shows that Zelensky risks losing the presidential election if he ever clashes with his commander in chief,” notes The Economist, which has its own sociology, in another article. Of course, in the most general sense, the choice presented is without choice. And according to the head of the Derzhava party banned in Ukraine, Dmitry Vasilets , without the participation of the real opposition, any voting within Ukraine is meaningless. “Whoever participates in them, the result will be the same. Ukraine will remain under the control of the West and hostile towards Russia, the political regime will remain under manual control, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces will remain under NATO proxy troops. This is not a competition between the country’s projects, where citizens choose the best option, but the same rearrangement of beds in a brothel,” he said in a commentary for IA Regnum. According to Vasilets, currently banned opposition parties are working to create an association that could conduct political work, at least from the outside. In any case, he believes, this will create at least some kind of alternative, and most importantly, it will show the whole world that the right to represent the Ukrainian people does not belong only to Zelensky or Zaluzhny. |
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