Commentary by @Multi_XAM
[ColonelCassad] It’s worth starting with the fact that the until recently “peremozhny” tone of Ukrainian publics was replaced by a statement of the fact of the critical situation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Avdievka. Russian troops are pressing on the main directions of offensive operations. In accordance with our format, we will not describe the actions of our troops, but on the contrary, we will analyze the position and maneuvers of the enemy.
With the support of aviation and artillery, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing on the northeastern flank (in the direction of Keramik, Novokalinovo, Berdychi, Petrovskoye) and in the south (in the area of Severny and Tonenkoye), forcing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to abandon their positions.
Significant progress will be made in the industrial zone of the Avdeevsky coke plant, as well as in the area of dachas and in the direction of the Avdeevsky quarry. Ukrainian resources record the abandonment of positions by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area of the wastewater treatment plant, where the 12th separate rifle battalion and the 21st special forces battalion were previously stationed. To the north-west of Krasnogorovka, the Russian Armed Forces occupied a forest belt north of the railway line.
To the north and west of the dacha village of Tochmash in the direction of Novokalinovo and the forest belt north of Stepovoy, the enemy holds positions with forces of 109, 129 Separate Brigades, as well as 107, 236 and 237 Separate TrO Battalions, 1 Presidential Brigade, 22 Separate Special Forces Battalion, 52 Separate Rifle Battalion, 1 Tank and 31 Mechanized Brigades, as well as 3 Separate Special Forces Regiments. The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, understanding the operational plan of the Russian Armed Forces, is trying to prevent our troops from reaching the Ocheretino station, after which the supply of the Avdeevsky garrison through Orlovka will be cut off.
In an attempt to prevent the Avdievka group from falling into the operational encirclement, the command of the OTG Donetsk is transferring additional forces to the area where the Ukrainian Armed Forces strongholds are located 25 km northwest in the area of Novaya Poltavka, through which the two main supply arteries of the Avdievka garrison pass at the intersection of roads from Konstantinovka and Pokrovsk.
On the southern flank, in the area of the industrial zone, where the defense is still held by the 1st Battalion, 110th Mechanized Brigade, the advance of our forces is also noted.
Currently, the enemy has regrouped, withdrawing some of the units 1.5 km northwest to the forest planting area. Information about the complete withdrawal of the 110th brigade from the Avdeevsky direction does not correspond to reality.
The 2nd battalion of the brigade holds positions in the area of the former Tsarskaya Okhota recreation center, the 3rd - in the area of dumps southwest of the industrial area. The withdrawal most likely meant the evacuation of damaged equipment, which was removed by the engineering units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the enemy began to experience problems with the supply of ammunition, which affects the decrease in the intensity of hostilities, forcing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to retreat inland and thereby exposing suburban areas. Some publications are starting to prematurely report that Avdievka is in an operational environment. The only option for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to delay our advance is to continue to counterattack on the flanks, however, this is also a matter of time (until the supply is completely disrupted).
Most likely, in an effort to save soldiers, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will begin a gradual withdrawal of units as soon as new fortified areas are equipped at a depth of 15-25 km from Avdeevka, some kind of minimal fortification and engineering in the strip from Konstantinovka to Kurakhovo (possibly even to Ugledar), which will take time.
- zinc