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| Propaganda failure. Fighting on the left bank of the Kherson region |
| 2023-11-15 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. [Korrespondent] The Russian Federation has still not agreed on its internal rhetoric regarding the Ukrainian Armed Forces' bridgehead on the left bank, and this threat to the occupying forces remains a very irritating factor. The Ukrainian Armed Forces' bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region remains one of the hottest spots at the front. On November 13, Russian state media published and immediately denied a report about a “regrouping” of Russian forces on the left bank of the Kherson region. But experts believe that discussions about a retreat in the Kherson region are actually being conducted within the Russian military command. POOR PROSPECTS FOR RUSSIANS BBC sources in the Russian army confirmed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces not only crossed into Russian-occupied territory and took a bridgehead on the carefully defended left bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region, but also began transporting military equipment there. From these positions, the Ukrainian military can launch a larger offensive - dividing Russian troops and cutting off their supply line. The length of the Dnieper coastline, which the invaders are forced to defend from the tip of the Kinburn Spit to Energodar, is about 300 km; an amphibious operation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is possible in any area, and the Russian military does not have many reserves and they are not very mobile. DISCUSSING RETREAT? The canceled messages may indicate real discussions taking place in the highest echelons of the Russian military command, the Institute for the Study of War suggests. They noted that in the original messages there was a phrase that the commander of the joint group of forces agreed with the arguments of the group’s command and ordered the redeployment of troops, and such a decision would supposedly help “free up some of the forces for an offensive in other directions.” Therefore, ISW analysts note that if we consider the message to be true, but released prematurely, the Russians could compare the costs of retaining front-line units of the Russian Federation in the Kherson region with the benefits of redeploying these units to other sectors of the front - and decide that the current Russian group in the rear areas of the Kherson region will be sufficient to protect against Ukrainian operations on the eastern bank. INFORMATION OPERATION? At the same time, the Russian military command may have deliberately instructed state media to publish and then withdraw these reports. Then this would be an information operation aimed at forcing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to underestimate the available amount of Russian manpower on the eastern shore of the Kherson region. On November 13, the Ukrainian Center for National Resistance announced that there were no signs of the withdrawal of Russian forces from positions on the eastern bank. The CNS considers the reports from TASS and RIA Novosti to be part of a Russian information operation to divert Ukrainian forces. ISW emphasizes that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are unlikely to make any operational-level decisions based on limited media reports about the Russian regrouping. Therefore, if the messages are part of an information operation, then the Russians most likely will not be able to mislead the Ukrainian command. The head of the joint press center of OK South, Natalya Gumenyuk, noted that the occupiers’ reports of retreat are an attempt to measure the readiness and method of response of Ukrainian fighters. Gumenyuk added that for a long time in the public and information space the necessary resources have been fueled for such a statement to be made. “But there was no reaction, they realized that they had the opposite effect, panic began in their army, discord intensified and they were forced to remove it,” she explained. Gumenyuk emphasized that in the Russian units located on the left bank of the Dnieper, the moral and psychological situation is “close to critical,” since desertion is rampant among the occupiers and there is a lack of coherence. This, she said, makes it difficult for the occupiers to work in conditions where the Defense Forces are putting pressure on their presence on the left bank. Gumenyuk also noted that she would not comment on any advance of Ukrainian troops in this area in order to protect units and local residents from the aggressive behavior of the Russians, since against the backdrop of the “excitement” around this topic, the enemy covered the coast of the Kherson region with powerful bombings, which is what primarily affects local residents. |
| Posted by:badanov |