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| Light and darkness. Ukraine is preparing 'for the hardest winter' |
| 2023-11-11 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Denis Davydov [REGNUM] “I bought dozens of candles. My father bought a truckload of firewood. We are preparing for a worse winter than ever. Therefore, we will close our eyes if we don’t get Taurus, but we will get air defense systems , ” head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Dmitry Kuleba begs, scaring the Germans, in a fresh interview with Die Welt. Preparation for winter in Ukraine has become a top topic since September. This is even talked about on morning television, where it is usually customary to spread positivity and show culinary delights. The authorities report that, in general, the energy infrastructure is ready. Although this readiness is assessed differently: Prime Minister Denis Shmygal reported at the end of October that “repairs are underway at the thermal power plant,” almost 80% of the work on repairing the main networks has been completed, and high-voltage substations have been completely restored. They are protected by a structure made of special concrete and covered with gabions - meshes filled with stone. In addition to this, multi-level protection for energy facilities is being actively formed; they are protected by the very air defense systems that Kuleba is asking from Germany. But Elena Zerkal, Advisor to the Minister of Energy, Head of the UNDP Critical Infrastructure Renewal Project , openly states that readiness for winter on a scale of 0 to 10 is “somewhere between three and four.” If the temperature dropped to a slight minus, Ukraine would immediately feel a shortage of electricity right now. The margin of safety that was there in winter last year is no longer there. Especially when it comes to the turbine rooms of thermal power plants, which need to be built anew. Private individuals also see the situation less optimistically than the prime minister. Last year, missile and drone strikes were carried out on key autotransformers; according to energy expert Yuri Korolchuk , 30 out of about 90 substations were “taken out.” Many of them have a recovery rate of 30–40%. But it’s difficult to protect them; the gabions are beautiful, but they won’t save you from a direct missile hit. Power lines are also very vulnerable, the degree of restoration of which is not at all an indicator of strength. As for generation, the mentioned destruction in thermal energy is not at all easy to eliminate . There are simply no technological capabilities for this. And without thermal power plants, it is impossible to balance the energy system with the resources of nuclear power plants alone: they provided only half of the current generation, and after the shutdown of the largest Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, NNEGC Energoatom lost a lot of capabilities. Now the main load falls on it; it is expected that in November-December the remaining nine power units will be 100% loaded. To achieve this, the management of the state-owned company even took a risk by loading the reactors of the Rivne NPP ahead of schedule with American fuel, made literally on the knee: previously, VVER-440 reactors were supplied only by Russian TVEL. But this is still not enough without thermal power plants that cover consumption during peak hours. “It has not yet been possible to provide critical infrastructure with gas generation and gas turbines. The reason is very slow processes. We spoke with international partners about the need for such a generation at the end of last year. At the beginning of 2023, they began to determine places where gas turbines could be installed. Even the American gas turbine, received by Energoatom back in February, still does not work - and it is not clear whether it will work before the winter, Elena Zerkal rages in an interview with Forbes. - Why? Nobody wants to go deep. In order for a gas turbine to operate, you need to purchase additional transformers and compressors. This equipment is currently not enough to connect an American turbine. Other turbines purchased by international partners will also require such equipment. For everything to work, you need not only to know the list of what is needed, but also to coordinate donors and partners who can provide the required equipment, and negotiate for speedy delivery.” These are not the kinds of things that can be talked about on social networks, so no one wants to do them. However, the deficit cannot be covered by imports. According to the old Ukrainian tradition of putting selfish interest above public interest, the national regulator has set maximum prices, and at the peak of consumption, prices on the Ukrainian market are lower than on the markets of neighboring countries. Which traders will buy expensive European electricity in order to sell it to their fellow citizens at a loss? At the same time, restrictions on supplies from Europe are set at 1,200 MW, and the decision to expand imports is made by the ENTSO-E club of network operators of the European Union. It includes a Hungarian operator, who also does not want to increase the throughput, they say, the transformers may overheat. The Ukrainian government cannot influence it without being a member of European governing bodies. Therefore, group prayers for a warm winter are planned in OCU churches, and Ukrainians do the same as Kuleba. A small survey conducted by Regnum among Kiev residents shows that almost everyone is busy accumulating candles and firewood. In early October, Energy Minister German Galushchenko advised Ukrainians to buy electric generators for the winter, but even without his advice, almost every second apartment has them. Sales of such equipment and charging stations from retailers increased two to three times already in August. As well as powerful power banks, various kinds of battery-powered lamps, water containers and gas cylinder stoves. People have learned from their mistakes and do not intend to repeat them. Although this brings with it the following challenge: demand for gasoline and diesel fuel in Ukraine increased by 20% last December, generators consumed a tenth of all fuel in the country. This winter this figure will increase even more, and gasoline and diesel engines are only becoming more expensive. The only alternative is mobile heating points, where Wi-Fi is distributed and devices can be charged. They were already deployed last year right in the courtyards of multi-storey buildings, and all this stuff is again waiting in the wings. Water supply is a generally solvable problem. And the toilet issue, as one of the experienced interlocutors explains, is solved by digging a common hole, which a barrel comes to pump out. Public safety and assistance to all services in the dark city will be ensured by the formations of the terrorist defense, which will quickly set up a scheme of checkpoints. Those who did not have suburban real estate have taken great care of this over the past year, finding village houses or cottages that are equipped with everything they need. “If the electricity and heating are cut off again, my family and I will go to the village, the windows are already there, I installed water, bought pipes for the sewerage. I’ll make a toilet in the house in a couple of days - my wife and children don’t need anything else,” says Andrey, who has a cooperation with his neighbor in the city, one generator for two apartments. But just in case, I found a house 80 kilometers from Kyiv, in the forest. Now you can't burn it with wood. Both the authorities and citizens agree on one thing: there will definitely be blows to the infrastructure, and residents of Ukrainian cities will definitely have to sit without electricity and heating. But, of course, as the first one assures, “we will definitely win,” we will stand and the enemy will not break us. Only behind these optimistic words is a refutation of the cruel words of Vladimir Zelensky, which he said in August 2021 to the residents of Donbass. “Without Ukraine, there will be no civilization on this territory, ” he said then. — Ukraine will grow upward and develop. Donbass in the form in which it is will not develop anywhere. Therefore, there will be no happiness for people here.” This formula was subsequently applied to the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, which Ukraine tried to turn into an environmental disaster zone, cut off communications and the Internet there, and made efforts to make people's lives unbearable. Time puts everything in its place, getting used to generators and cesspools in the yard, citizens of Ukraine are increasingly realizing that with it there will be no civilization. No one will grow and develop: there is only a fall ahead. And the faster life improves in the new territories of Russia, the more obvious it will become to everyone that the path once chosen led Ukraine into darkness. And we’re not just talking about rolling blackouts. |
| Posted by:badanov |