In a stunning development, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.V.) announced on Thursday that he will not seek re-election to the Senate in 2024.“I believe in my heart of hearts that I have accomplished what I set out to do for West Virginia," he said. “I have made one of the toughest decisions of my life and decided that I will not be running for re-election to the United States Senate, but what I will be doing is traveling the country and speaking out to see if there is an interest in creating a movement to mobilize the middle and bring Americans together.”
The future of Manchin’s political career has been under much speculation for a couple of years now. While Manchin has managed to get elected and reelected as a Democrat in a red state, he’s experienced diminishing margins of victory in each of his Senate contests since 2012. He won comfortably in 2012 by 24 points, but he narrowly won reelection in 2018 against Republican candidate Patrick Morrisey. Manchin secured only 49.7% of the vote, while Morrisey received 46.2%. West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, who is the runaway frontrunner in the GOP primary for the U.S. Senate, has led Manchin by double digits in multiple recent polls.
While Manchin has been a thorn in the side of the Biden agenda in a few select cases, he has largely been a hardline Democrat, mostly voting with Biden and the Democrats on legislation and judicial nominees. Last year, Manchin entered into a deal with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to support the so-called Inflation Reduction Act. Without Manchin’s backing, the bill would not have passed the Senate or become law, providing a much-needed legislative victory for President Biden — even though it did nothing to address inflation.
Furthermore, despite being labeled as a “moderate” or “independent” voice, Manchin has voted with Joe Biden on approximately 88% of legislation and has supported the confirmation of all of Biden’s judicial nominees, including controversial figures like Ketanji Brown Jackson, despite her views on critical race theory and her support for child sex offenders.
Manchin’s effective retirement is a huge problem for the Democrats. He was likely the Democrats' best shot at holding onto the seat in a state where Trump won 68.6% of the vote in 2020. This setback comes at a critical time as Democrats are set to defend 23 seats in the upcoming year, in stark contrast to the Republicans, who have a more manageable task of defending only ten seats.
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