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| Between bargaining and depression. The West starts talking about negotiations between Russia and Ukraine |
| 2023-11-07 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Gevorg Mirzayan [Regnum] Denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance. Everyone knows the five stages of dealing with the inevitable. And if we look through this prism at the West’s attitude to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict (or rather, the process of accepting the inevitability of Russia’s victory in it), one may get the impression that our American and European “partners” are somewhere between the third and fourth stages. For example, numerous publications in Western media about the lack of money and weapons in the US and EU to support the Kyiv regime speak in favor of depression. This same collection includes publications (including those authored by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny ) about the impossibility of defeating Russia on the battlefield. About the transition of the conflict to the stage of a “war of attrition”, where Moscow’s resources are an order of magnitude greater than the capabilities of Kyiv and the little that the war-weary West is ready to supply to Ukraine. It would seem that behind-the-scenes diplomacy of the West can be considered evidence of bargaining. According to the NBC television channel, the United States and the European Union have already begun negotiations with Ukraine on the subject of what it is ready to concede in order to conclude a peace agreement with Russia. Negotiations that seemed unthinkable since the Americans broke down the Istanbul agreements in the spring of 2022 (they were supposed to end the conflict). And in this regard, four questions arise. The first is how seriously the West is ready for the diplomatic process? “Such messages are only testing the waters for the very possibility of negotiations in the future. But so far the West has not lost faith that Russia will lose on the battlefield. And rumors about negotiations are only a fallback option in case there is no victory ,” says Vadim Trukhachev , associate professor of the Russian State University for the Humanities, to IA Regnum. However, the authors of the article from NBC claim that the West has realized that victory on the battlefield will no longer be certain. “These talks come amid concerns among US and European officials that the war has reached a stalemate and that they will not be able to continue providing assistance to Ukraine. <…> Representatives of the Biden administration are also concerned that Ukraine is running out of forces, while Russia’s reserves seem endless ,” NBC explains the reasons for these negotiations, citing its sources among Western officials. The second question is how the West sees these negotiations? And here the opinion of Russian experts is generally unambiguous. If anyone believes that the United States and the EU are ready to accept the demands that Moscow puts forward for the end of the Northern Military District - demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, as well as agreement with new territorial realities - then this is not so. This is possible only at the fifth stage of “accepting the inevitable,” which the Americans have not yet reached. So far, they understand by negotiations only the seduction of Russia into freezing the conflict. “The West is trying to drag us into the negotiation process. He wants to return us to an even worse situation, when part of the Ukrainian territories will be pumped up with Russophobia and weapons, in order to subsequently resume the conflict. But in fact - not to stop the conflict, but to be able to manage it for diplomatic purposes ,” explains Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, senior researcher at IMEMO RAS to IA Regnum . “ The main goal of the West is still the same - a truce, pumping up part of Ukraine with weapons and creating a constant thorn in Russia’s side . ” And for the sake of this freeze, the Americans are ready to make colossal, from their point of view, concessions. “Most likely, we are talking about stopping shelling of the “old” territory of Russia and abandoning Crimea, DPR and LPR. Apparently, the United States and the EU are ready to recognize Russia’s sovereignty over them. Over other territories - no ,” says Vadim Trukhachev. Well, perhaps Washington is ready to replace the negotiator in Kyiv. “ The West is now imitating its readiness to dump Zelensky before the elections and pose the question to us: will Russia be satisfied with someone else?” - says Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky. This may, in particular, explain the numerous articles in the Western press criticizing President Zelensky. And even, as in the case of Time, they present him as a crazy person who denies objective reality. The third question is: is Ukraine ready to play along with the West? Apparently not. And here we are not even talking only about Zelensky himself, who will lose his post, reputation, financial income, career and life. This is exactly what the Ukrainian elite will lose with any more or less significant compromise between Moscow and the West. After all, this elite can only exist in conditions of a Russian-Western conflict - only then will the United States and the EU need it. Yes, it seems that no one has canceled the conflict - we are talking only about a truce, and not about its end. However, in Kyiv they reasonably fear that the truce may well lead to a long-term freeze, and then the West will leave everything as it is due to being busy with other issues. Well, or during the calm, the Kiev regime simply cannot cope with the heap of internal political and economic problems. Finally, the fourth question: is Russia ready to agree with the American negotiating narrative? Here, too, the unequivocal answer is no. “Apparently, the Russian authorities are interested in the international legal consolidation of new borders and the refusal of Ukraine’s membership in NATO. Perhaps also guarantees for the Russian language in Ukraine, refusal to persecute the canonical UOC and refusal to ban a number of political forces like the Party of Regions and the Communist Party of Ukraine ,” says Vadim Trukhachev. The West can accept these conditions, moderate from the Russian point of view, only in the event of a complete military defeat of Ukraine. But it hasn’t come yet. “Therefore, it makes sense to speak only after the liberation of Kharkov and Zaporozhye. Until then, there is no point in negotiations, because we will not be taken seriously ,” sums up Vadim Trukhachev. “ We don’t need to bargain at all ,” Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky agrees with him. “ Our goals will be achieved, we are not going to retreat, there is nothing to talk about yet . ” So Moscow intends to achieve its goals through military means. And wait until the West moves from the third or fourth to the fifth stage of accepting the inevitable. |
| Posted by:badanov |