| Submit your comments on this article |
| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| The tail can pinch the dog. Kyiv threatens the West with a two-move |
| 2023-09-01 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Gevorg Mirzayan The Ukrainian offensive continues on the spot. Every day the troops of the Kyiv regime try to attack Russian positions in the Zaporozhye region, and every day the main result of these attacks is a new batch of destroyed equipment and dead soldiers. Ukrainian equipment and Ukrainian soldiers. If suddenly, now, when new units are thrown into the assault on the last hope, Kiev manages to achieve some tactical successes, then even Ukrainian propaganda will not be able to turn them into achieving the strategic goals of the offensive (which, we recall, were access to the Crimea and the Sea of Azov). And the failure of the offensive is fraught with a colossal number of problems. Both foreign policy (the need to explain to external sponsors about where the weapons collected from European bottomholes went) and domestic political (the loss of faith in victory by the Ukrainian population and, accordingly, a sharp decrease in enthusiasm to go to the mobilization front). And all these problems arise against the backdrop of rumors that Russian units will go on the offensive in the very near future. They will liberate new cities and thereby not only exacerbate problems for the Kyiv regime, but also put it on the brink of survival. After all, Zelensky and his entourage can only survive if they win or continue the struggle, which means they need to somehow ensure this. And, apparently, the Kiev regime has already found a way to survive - at the expense of the death of others. The recent statements by the head of the presidential office, Mikhail Podolyak (“today there is already an absolute consensus that we can destroy everything Russian, for example, in Crimea” ) and a massive drone attack on the Pskov airfield (which a number of media outlets are trying to present as an attack from the territory of the Baltic states) are aimed at something to create the impression that the Western countries are ready to get directly involved in the NWO. as parties to the conflict. Yes, Ukraine has tried to achieve this involvement before. Yes, she had like-minded people in Europe (the same Baltic states, the British) who supported a more active involvement in the Ukrainian conflict. However, the lion's share of Western states - primarily the United States - were against it. They believed that it was too risky to use the western territory for strikes against Russia or to bring Western troops into territories that, according to the Russian Constitution, are Russian (that is, into the part of Zaporozhye, Kherson, Donbass occupied by Kiev), which automatically makes them direct participants in the war against Russia. A war that is very likely to acquire a nuclear flavor. However, now the attitude of the West to Ukrainian requests may change, and the reason for this was the very failed Ukrainian offensive. The United States and the EU, we recall, were very hopeful of this offensive: they believed that it would help end the conflict on Western terms. Of course, no one expected the Kyiv troops to capture Moscow or even Sevastopol, but the West expected a serious defeat for the Russian troops in Zaporozhye. He was waiting for an exit to the Sea of Azov, he was waiting for a state of shock in the Kremlin, he was waiting for a sharp increase in sentiment from the series “it is urgent to make peace before it’s too late” and he hoped to get a compromise option for completing the NWO on Ukrainian-Western terms. With the exit from this conflict in the status of an undisputed winner. It turned out the opposite. Kyiv burned a huge amount of reserves, lost a significant part of Western equipment. The victorious veil received after the successes in the Khar'kov and Kherson regions at the end of 2022 finally disappeared, and everyone again realized that Russia, which is many times superior to Ukraine in terms of economic, mobilization, industrial and military potential, is a clear favorite in the current “war on exhaustion." And here the West faces a difficult choice. It is impossible to compromise with Moscow on Russian terms — this will be perceived not only as a defeat for the collective West (which will instill courage and even a sense of impunity in the hearts of Iranian, Chinese, North Korean leaders), but also as a failure of specific Western leaders. Some of whom, in particular President Joseph Biden, will go to the polls in 2024. And he does not want to answer the question of why the United States spent tens, hundreds of billions of American taxpayer dollars to help the Kyiv regime and ended up in the status of losers. On the other hand, it is also impossible to continue the war of attrition without Russian defeats. Despite all the troubles (Prigozhin's rebellion, fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate), Russian society and a significant part of the Russian elites remain ready to go to victory. The behavior of the Kyiv regime (the same nuclear terrorism) only strengthens support for the SVO in the eyes of the Russians. On the other hand, in the West, the level of support for the war is falling - in the United States, the number of citizens opposing increased support for Ukraine has exceeded 50%. As a result, a war of attrition will also lead to a Russian victory, even if delayed. In fact, the West has only one chance to emerge from the situation as a living winner - to continue to try to convince Russia to agree to a freeze on the conflict on Western terms. Yes, it didn’t work out through a shock defeat, so you need to look for other ways. Moreover, you need to search quickly - the conviction must take place before the start of the Russian offensive. That is already this autumn-winter. And here the Ukrainians come with their cunning plan. They suggest trying to play Erdogan with Putin. That is, to demonstrate a willingness to raise the stakes — to let the Russian leadership know that the West is ready to cast aside all fears and get directly involved in the conflict. Simply because Putin left them no other choice. And then, they say, Russia will give in and agree to a compromise. The logic of Kyiv, of course, is impeccable. If the Russian government folds, the Zelensky regime ensures its continued existence. If it does not save, then the West again finds itself in a fork - ultimatums must be fulfilled, otherwise those who put them up are worthless. This means that Biden and the company will be convinced that they still need to send troops, otherwise Western countries will no longer be respected. The question is, how will Western countries act now? Will they follow the lead of the Ukrainian two-move or will they finally understand that the Ukrainian tail should not be twirled like a Western dog? |
| Posted by:badanov |