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| Economy |
| Feed base of market predators. How bulls and bears inflate hamsters |
| 2023-08-29 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Dmitry Baranov Warren Buffett once said, "If you don't find a way to make money while you sleep, you'll work until you die." This idea has firmly settled in the minds of many Russians, and the stories of the financial success of ordinary hard workers, popping up every now and then on the Internet, literally turn their heads. For example, from May 2019 to November 2021, Tesla shares rose almost 3,000%. In other words, if you invested 10,000 rubles before the pandemic, more than 300,000 rubles could be withdrawn from the stock exchange before the new year 2022. Astronomical profitability with minimal investment. It looks like a fairy tale, but nevertheless the case is real. This story, like many others similar, motivates you to play on the stock exchange and think: where to get ideas, where to invest? At the same time, it is advisable not to wait a year and a half, when the shares will bring astronomical profits, and it is better to earn in rubles - under the conditions of sanctions, this is a reasonable plan. And there are kind people who are ready to show investors a bright path. The colossal size of the domestic stock market is simply created so that, as in real politics, influence groups are created, price wars go on and undercover games unfold. The number of Russians with brokerage accounts on the Moscow Exchange exceeded 25 million people, their total portfolio reached 7 trillion rubles. And just recently, on August 14, an absolute record was set in the entire history of exchange trading in Russia: more than one and a half million people made transactions in one trading day. It is unlikely that all of them pored over quotes, studied company reports, understood the intricacies of technical analysis and other important but boring things. In the context of digitalization, the game on the stock exchange has turned from work into a game like the well-known “walkers” and “shooters”. The decision both there and there must be made quickly. Therefore, the distribution of expert assistants from social media, primarily telegram channels, has become a natural phenomenon. New media is a key source for new investors. Taking into account the rejuvenation of the exchange audience, the appetite for risk among private investors is growing. Sharing your knowledge about investing is easy, offering your strategy is also easy. Paid training courses and subscription investor channels have proliferated unbelievably. For example, one of the most famous investors in the country has a free channel with 77 thousand subscribers, in addition, he has a paid channel for almost four thousand a month with sell-buy advice, and there are more than 10 thousand subscribers. There is an interesting channel of women investors, where the number of subscribers is approaching five thousand. In total, according to analysts, the number of subscribers of leading financial bloggers reaches several million people. That is, social networks are a huge investment force with leaders. Few of them are known by face or by name. But they have enormous power in their hands: they can disperse certain papers up or drop them down. For example - and this is official information - in 2022, facts of manipulation using telegram channels with the prices of shares of Rosseti Yug, Permenergosbyt and Saratovenergo were revealed. Bulls and bears have earned, and hamsters have been fooled. Hamsters are just called inexperienced investors with small portfolios. They are the main food base of market predators. In general, amazing things can happen in the market. For example, a sudden increase in shares of the second and third echelon by tens of percent per day (and this is a thousand per annum, by the way) without any significant news and events. 40% - the maximum possible growth of quotes per day - this is the exchange limit. Of course, it happens that there are objective reasons for the sharp growth of shares, but it happens that there are no grounds for an abnormal growth in the value of shares. And even the market gurus shrug their shoulders, not understanding how they overlooked a good deal. For example, a wave of pumps, that is, the dispersal of not the most liquid shares, was recorded in the fall of 2022: the shares of Obuv Rossii, against the backdrop of rumors that an agreement had been reached with a creditor, made +280% in less than a month (from 3.9 rubles per share to 14.3 at the moment). A similar picture occurred with the papers "Volgograd Energosbyt-p", "Don Plant of Radio Components" and others. Further, as in the movie "The Wolf of Wall Street." The task of the hero DiCaprio is to buy "junk" shares cheaper, disperse them in price and sell them, earning on the difference. Shares are falling, there is, as they say on the stock exchange, a dump. To whom to sell? Of course, hamsters are simple dreamers of a big income. The only difference between the film and Russian reality is that the phone as a means of manipulation has given way to instant messengers and social media. It would be wrong to say that all financial bloggers are manipulators. But the recommendation of a really authoritative person can move the papers well. For example, the price chart for the shares of one of the aviation companies during one August week resembled the teeth of a comb: sharp fluctuations literally within one day. Someone skimmed the cream well. And someone remained with losses. And so several times. Manipulation? Not proven. Let's just say: competent investment recommendations. At the same time, on several telegram channels that are not formally related to themselves. The line between an investment recommendation and manipulation is not always clear for an inexperienced investor. And judging by the statistics, such a trading participant is often used for pump and dump. People's investors with a portfolio from 10 to 100 thousand rubles (and such 90%), as a rule, show the worst, “negative returns”. In fairness, it should be noted that the reasons for failures are not always in blind faith in the gurus from the Internet. Investors do not benefit from an independent irrational choice of financial instruments, and the lack of diversification of investments. How to invest without risk? Simple answer: no way. Investments without risk are impossible, especially in the face of restrictions and sanctions pressure. Everyone who promises the opposite (and they promise!), Are just scammers. The trouble is that there is no official register of financial bloggers, and, by and large, there cannot be. Therefore, the choice of an adviser is the personal responsibility of each investor. Often in this capacity are brokers offering investment ideas. For a novice investor, this is a worthy path. Brokers openly say what percentage of ideas worked: 70-80% is a good indicator. Actually, responsible bloggers also keep statistics, not being afraid to show that they are wrong. International studies say that the influence of social media on the investment behavior of citizens will only grow. Russia will not be lagging behind here. And while there are no explicit regulatory measures regarding information "from bloggers", you will have to filter their ideas on your own. I would like to hope that the old call to "study, study and study" will turn hamsters into bulls or bears. In any case, they will cease to be a food base. |
| Posted by:badanov |