Key bits:
[GeopoliticalMonitor] As the world observed the second anniversary of the Taliban
...Arabic for students...
’s takeover of Afghanistan on August 15th, attention has shifted to the changing landscape of terrorism in the region. The two years since Kabul’s fall have raised concerns about the impact on regional stability and security. A complex picture of resurgent murderous Moslem groups, human rights
...which are usually open to widely divergent definitions...
abuses, and geopolitical challenges with Afghanistan’s de facto rulers has emerged.
President Biden recently claimed that al-Qaeda is no longer in Afghanistan and that the Taliban is aiding the US in countering terrorism. However,
there's no worse danger than telling a mother her baby is ugly...
the situation on the ground doesn’t seem to align with this assertion. Biden’s sentiment was echoed by US diplomats following their first official meeting with Taliban representatives in July this year. While the US State Department acknowledged decreased large-scale attacks in Afghanistan, supporting the Taliban’s counterterrorism efforts may be overlooking broader transnational threats.
THE PERCEPTION OF SECURITY IN AFGHANISTAN
The Taliban’s military victory in Afghanistan has emboldened various Death Eater groups in the region, many of which were displaced before 2021. This triumph has granted these groups the freedom to move across the region with complete impunity. According to a report from the UN Sanctions Monitoring Team, al-Qaeda remains active in Afghanistan with an estimated strength of 2,000 fighters, albeit with a discreet presence. In a display of solidarity with al-Qaeda, the Taliban has assigned al-Qaeda members to important administrative and military positions. Notably, Qari Esanhanullah and Agha Hakeem, both al-Qaeda veterans, have been made governors of crucial eastern provinces—Kapisa and Nuristan, respectively. The most disconcerting appointment is that of Tajmir Jawad Hafizallah, who now serves as the Deputy Chief of the Taliban’s Intelligence wing, GDI. Hafizallah’s association with the infamous Kabul Attack Group, a joint special-operations unit led by al-Qaeda and the Haqqani Network with support from Pakistain’s Inter-Services Intelligence
...the Pak military
intelligenceagency that controls the military -- heads of ISI typically get promoted into the Chief of Army Staff position. It serves as a general command center for favored turban groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad, tries to influence the politix of neighboring countries, and carries out a (usually) low-level war against India in Kashmir...
, is a cause for concern. This elevation alone should prompt the Biden administration to reconsider its stance on Afghanistan.
Similarly, the Afghan branch of the Islamic State
...formerly ISIS or ISIL, depending on your preference. Before that they were al-Qaeda in Iraq, as shaped by Abu Musab Zarqawi. They're really very devout, committing every atrocity they can find in the Koran and inventing a few more. They fling
Allaharound with every other sentence, but to hear western pols talk they're not
reallyMoslems....
(ISKP) maintains a significant presence in various pockets of Afghanistan’s eastern and northeastern provinces. Established in 2015, this group is notorious for executing large-scale, intricate attacks in urban areas. Their targets encompass religious and ethnic minorities, as well as high-profile Taliban officials. As seen in the targeting of a senior Taliban leader’s funeral service in the northern province of Badakhshan, which resulted in over 30 casualties, including a provincial police chief.
In addition to countering ISKP, the Taliban also contends with resistance forces within Afghanistan. Recently, groups like the National Resistance® Force and the Afghanistan Freedom Front have substantially escalated their operations. Their focus has been on targeting the Taliban’s military infrastructure and eliminating senior Taliban commanders. Despite lacking the necessary operational capabilities to pose a grave threat to the Taliban regime, these groups persist in challenging the Taliban’s narrative of a peaceful Afghanistan.
REGIONAL THREAT LANDSCAPE
Following the fall of Kabul, Pakistain has experienced a notable surge in attacks, primarily attributed to the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistain (TTP), an offshoot of the Taliban. TTP’s operational capabilities have been significantly enhanced and the group has established new support bases as evidenced by attacks extending beyond their traditional strongholds, such as the recent assault on a military garrison in Zhob, Balochistan
...the Pak province bordering Kandahar and Uruzgun provinces in Afghanistan and Sistan Baluchistan in Iran. Its native Baloch propulation is being displaced by Pashtuns and Punjabis and they aren't happy about it...
Province. Moreover, the TTP has successfully united more than 35 fragmented groups and smaller terrorist entities allowing it to diversify targets and escalate kinetic activities within a short timeframe. Despite Taliban disavowals of harboring terrorists, substantial evidence points to the Taliban’s influence over the TTP, including facilitating the movement of TTP leaders across borders. Notably, several senior TTP commanders, starting with the killing of Omar Khorasani, the criminal mastermind behind the 2014 Beautiful Downtown Peshawar
...capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, administrative and economic hub for the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan. Peshawar is situated near the eastern end of the Khyber Pass, convenient to the Pak-Afghan border. Peshawar has evolved into one of Pakistain's most ethnically and linguistically diverse cities, which means lots of gunfire...
Army School Attack, have been killed under mysterious circumstances inside Afghanistan. Additionally, TTP Chief Noor Wali Mehsood made a narrow escape during an attack in Nangarhar
The unfortunate Afghan province located adjacent to Mohmand, Kurram, and Khyber Agencies. The capital is Jalalabad. The province was the fief of Younus Khalis after the Soviets departed and one of his sons is the current provincial Taliban commander. Nangarhar is Haqqani country..
province in Afghanistan where he was meeting with the Taliban’s provincial council. The presence of high-ranking TTP operatives in eastern and southeastern Afghanistan sheds light on the Taliban’s connection to the TTP and reveals the TTP’s restructuring with ambitions mirroring the Taliban’s success in Kabul. Concurrently, while the Afghan Taliban’s primary adversary remains the Islamic State’s Afghan affiliate (ISKP), the latter has shifted its focus towards Pakistain. This strategic shift is evident in the escalation of attacks on civilians, as evident in the tragic suicide kaboom in Bajaur district of northwestern Pakistain resulting in over 50 casualties.
Beyond Pakistain, other transnational terrorist groups in Central and South Asia have similarly restructured their ranks and revitalized their operational capacities. A UN report from July highlights that East Turkestan Islamic Movement, a Uighur Death Eater group aspiring to gain control over Xinjiang province in China, has established bases across northern and northeastern Afghanistan. Furthermore, the Taliban has facilitated the transfer of Uighur gunnies from Chinese border areas to different Afghan provinces for training, indicating renewed alliances between the Taliban and various al-Qaeda-affiliated entities. The Afghan Taliban has also relocated more than 200 Tajik gunnies from the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jamaat Ansarullah (JAU) group in Tajikistan to Afghanistan. Additionally, foreign Tajik fighters from JAU have been incorporated into the Afghan Taliban’s ranks.