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| Warsaw and Riga could start a 'hybrid war' against Kaliningrad |
| 2023-08-19 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited by Stanislav Stremidlovsky [REGNUM] Poland has begun to actively draw Latvia into its orbit. The pretext for this was "border problems" with Belarus and, in the background, with Russia. Thus, the President of Latvia, Edgar Rinkevich, convened on Thursday, August 17, a meeting of the Republican National Security Council, at which an assessment was made of the threats " in the context of a hybrid war from Belarus and Russia." The order of the Latvian president followed after he paid a visit to Warsaw a day earlier, where he met with Polish President Andrzej Duda . During a joint press conference with his Polish colleague, Rinkevich said that “ the Wagner group has appeared in Belarus and therefore “ we must prepare for provocations.” However, Riga connected the current border problems on the Latvian-Belarusian border not so much with PMCs, but with “illegal migration”. The command of the Border Service recently recalled employees from vacations in order to more effectively prevent the penetration of migrants. At the same time, the President of Latvia criticized the judiciary and the prosecutor's office of the republic, as the latter show "liberalism" in relation to those who " help organize the transfer of illegal migrants and promote the regime of Alexander Lukashenko." Interestingly, Poland and Lithuania, neighboring Belarus, do not experience problems with an increased influx of migrants today. But for some reason, at the same time, Warsaw, Vilnius and Riga “for three” are discussing the prospects for a complete blockade from the western direction of Belarus, covering up these conversations with references to some “provocations”. In early August, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda , during a meeting with Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki in Suwalki, said that Warsaw, Vilnius and Riga should be prepared for a possible border closure with Belarus if "the security situation starts to deteriorate due to the actions of mercenaries". On August 28, Warsaw will host a meeting of the Ministers of the Interior of Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, at which the issue of the blockade of Belarus will be discussed. “A week ago I had a conversation with the Minister of the Interior of Poland ,” said the Minister of the Interior of Lithuania, Agne Bilotaite. “We agreed that we are now agreeing on technical actions and an algorithm, how it would look if such a regional decision were made, if the Baltic countries and Poland did it at the same time.” But who is the initiator and lobbyist of such an idea? Doesn't look like Vilnius. Lithuanian politicians are ambivalent about the tightening of the border regime. Many local residents still rode bicycles or even on foot for years to neighboring Belarus for cheap food, cigarettes, alcohol and medicines. Fearing the consequences for the republic and the Minister of Economy and Innovation of Lithuania Aušrine Armonaitė. After some deputies of the Lithuanian Seimas started talking about introducing new restrictions on entry into the country for citizens of Belarus, the minister opposed such measures, as this would cause an outflow of Belarusian IT specialists, who currently live in Lithuania about 5.2 thousand people, and they are considered to have " fled the repressions of the Minsk regime". It seems that Warsaw and Riga are behind the concept of blocking Belarus. According to Duda, during his talks with Rinkevich, the most important issue " was security in terms of the war Russia is waging against Ukraine, Russian aggression against Ukraine, the hybrid threat from Belarus ." “ Here we are talking about attacks on our borders, both Poland and Latvia have such a problem that the border is being subjected to a hybrid attack by the Belarusian authorities ,” the Polish president said. But if Warsaw has been playing the topic of “migration threats” from Minsk for several days, then Riga has not been noted for this until now. Therefore, one got the impression that embedding Latvia on a par with Poland served some other purpose. In this regard, Rinkevich's commentary on the results of negotiations with Duda looks intriguing. The Latvian President explained that Riga and Warsaw are close partners, leading an active political dialogue and coordination on regional issues, the European Union and NATO. Rinkevich stressed that Poland plays a strategic role in strengthening regional security, which is especially important in the current geopolitical context. Riga is grateful to Warsaw for participating in the Canada-led NATO Enhanced Presence Battlegroup in Latvia and in the Baltic air patrol mission. Judgments of this kind play into the hands of Poland's attempts to present itself as a guarantor and exporter of regional security. A number of Warsaw experts and politicians have already thrown into the information space the theses that the accelerated rearmament of the Polish army and the planned increase in its strength should lead to the fact that Poland will be able to cover with its “military umbrella” those countries that it considers to be part of the “Three Seas” initiative. The fact that Rinkevich went to Poland a few weeks after taking office, having made “mandatory” visits to Lithuania and Estonia, indicates that Warsaw and Riga are preparing some new geopolitical initiatives. And in the case of the Polish-Latvian arc, two directions of potential expansion are visible - in addition to Belarus, the Kaliningrad region can also become a target. Warsaw and Riga, having won Vilnius over to their side in blocking Belarus, could try to create problems for the Russian exclave on land. Judging by the statements of the Latvian President, the game is supposed to be a long one. As Rinkiewicz said in an interview with the Rzeczpospolita newspaper, “ regardless of the outcome of this war (special military operation in Ukraine. - Ed.), we will have to live with Russia, which will be a serious threat to our independence and security, so I have no good news for both scenarios, Russian victories and defeats .” This attitude presupposes an active offensive policy on the part of Warsaw and Riga. |
| Posted by:badanov |