Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin:
[ColonelCassad] 1. The Russian Defense Ministry made it clear today that attacks on Ukrainian ports will continue. Previously, they were protected by the grain deal, now there are no obstacles.2. The US and Turkey have moved away from the topic of escorting ships to Ukraine and are discussing land routes more. Ukraine itself declares that it is ready to pay for the risks from the passage of ships to Odessa. Without escort, this is up to 1-2 sunk/damaged ships, not to mention attacks on port infrastructure and terminals. However, there will certainly be attempts to test the Russian reaction in the hope that there will be no reaction.
3. In turn, Ukraine threatens to attack Russian civilian ships in the Black Sea. Most likely they will try to attack ships with maritime drones and aerial drones. This threat should not be underestimated. The defeat of the coastal military infrastructure must be intensified.
4. Grain prices on world markets continue to rise. Accordingly, Russian grain producers will earn additional money from this growth. Negotiations on a grain hub in Turkey can be expected in August, when negotiations between Putin and Erdogan are likely to take place.
5. The US and the EU do not give grounds to believe that they intend to fulfill the 5 Russian conditions under which the grain deal can be extended. The next meeting of the UN Security Council regarding the grain deal will not change anything significant in this situation. The coordination center in Istanbul has already been disbanded. There are no prerequisites for extending the deal on the previous terms.
Related, from Boris Rozhin:
Using tankers to attack the Crimean bridge
Scheme of the attack on the Crimean bridge using marine drones according to the hacker group RaHDit, unmanned boats could launch from two tankers Beks Loyal and Khudayar Yusifzade. One of the ships drifted 100 kilometers from Novorossiysk a few days before the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge. The second tanker was to the south. After a while, the tankers met at sea.
According to the hackers, at that moment, unmanned boats were reloaded from one of the tankers to another, and another vessel was used to control the drones, which was at sea near the Crimean bridge.
This scenario was listed as possible last August
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Grain Deal Coordination Center in Istanbul completes work
The joint coordinating center in Istanbul, whose participants dealt with the issues of the grain deal, has ceased its activities, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova confirmed on July 20.
“He completed the job. I have the details of how he completed it, but I don't have anything that I can share with you. Indeed, he completed the work, to the obvious extreme displeasure of certain participants, ” Zakharova said at a briefing by the Foreign Ministry.
Earlier on July 20, Turkish media reported that the Russian delegation, as well as all Russian personnel, left the territory of the coordination center.
On July 17, Russia formally notified the UN, Turkey, and Ukraine of the suspension of the grain deal due to the fact that none of the promises made to Russia in the summer of 2022 were ever fulfilled.
Ukraine did not supply products to the poorest countries at all and simply made money on a grain deal, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted . The Kyiv authorities used the provided corridor for the preparation of terrorist attacks, they said in turn in the Russian Foreign Ministry.
On July 19, Vladimir Putin said that Russia might consider returning to the grain deal, but only after the promises made back in July 2022 are fulfilled.
On July 17, simultaneously with the termination of the grain deal, the guarantees for the safety of navigation in the corresponding corridor in the Black Sea were also withdrawn. On July 19, the Russian Defense Ministry warned that they would consider all ships going along this corridor to Ukrainian-controlled ports as potential arms carriers.