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| -Signs, Portents, and the Weather- |
| How a Vast Demographic Shift Will Reshape the World |
| 2023-07-21 |
| [NYT] The world’s demographics have already been transformed. Europe is shrinking. China is shrinking, with India, a much younger country, overtaking it this year as the world’s most populous nation. But what we’ve seen so far is just the beginning. The projections are reliable, and stark: By 2050, people age 65 and older will make up nearly 40 percent of the population in some parts of East Asia and Europe. That’s almost twice the share of older adults in Florida, America’s retirement capital. Extraordinary numbers of retirees will be dependent on a shrinking number of working-age people to support them. In all of recorded history, no country has ever been as old as these nations are expected to get. As a result, experts predict, things many wealthier countries take for granted — like pensions, retirement ages and strict immigration policies — will need overhauls to be sustainable. And today’s wealthier countries will almost inevitably make up a smaller share of global G.D.P., economists say. This is a sea change for Europe, the United States, China and other top economies, which have had some of the most working-age people in the world, adjusted for their populations. Their large work forces have helped to drive their economic growth. Those countries are already aging off the list. Soon, the best-balanced work forces will mostly be in South and Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East, according to U.N. projections. The shift could reshape economic growth and geopolitical power balances, experts say. |
| Posted by:Besoeker |
| #5 I wonder if the progressives have a solution in mind - just spend us into bankrupt socialism. They'll divvy up what left. |
| Posted by: Bobby 2023-07-21 15:27 |
| #4 Re #1. How much better off would I be if all that money they stole from me and millions of others was instead invested in a 401(k) or even just put it into a savings account? Has there been any serious writing about the degree to which the establishment of Social Security altered the balance of risk vs. reward in the stock market? |
| Posted by: Cravick Angiling7710 2023-07-21 15:26 |
| #3 The projections are reliable Ask Paul R. Ehrlich about projections. About as reliable as the UN's gerbal warming data projections. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2023-07-21 13:43 |
| #2 All things the same, maybe. But the NYT model assumes that AI, automation, and robotics will not make up the slack in these industrialized countries which to allow BRICs their moment to shine (which i think is nyt's point). |
| Posted by: mossomo 2023-07-21 12:58 |
| #1 Get rid of Ponzi schemes like Social Security. I know, I collect Social Security benefits. I don't feel bad about it because throughout my working life the government stole money from me and now they're giving it back to me in dribs and drabs. How much better off would I be if all that money they stole from me and millions of others was instead invested in a 401(k) or even just put it into a savings account? And who says at age 65 you magically get to stop working and become a burden on everybody who must continue to work? Why, the government of course! I say you quit working when you can afford to do so and that's only if you want to quit or can no longer do the work. |
| Posted by: Abu Uluque 2023-07-21 12:54 |