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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| The End of Offensive Warfare |
| 2023-06-23 |
| [American Greatness] Ukraine’s vaunted counteroffensive is not going well. In the months leading up to its launch, proponents said it would be "decisive." Former American general David Petraeus predicted "the Ukrainians [would] achieve significant breakthroughs and accomplish much more than most analysts are predicting." But, instead, the front lines have barely budged, and Ukraine has lost enormous numbers of men and equipment. This debacle provides important lessons for the United States and students of warfare more generally. NATO DOCTRINE RUNS INTO REALITY Ukraine is using new tactics, equipment, and operational plans for its shock brigades after months of intensive training by NATO. NATO built these units in its own image, prioritizing offense, maneuver, and combined arms tactics. Unfortunately, what looks good on paper does not always work in the field. Extensive minefields, drone-sighted artillery, and entrenched defenders mean Ukrainian forces can barely advance into "no man’s land." They are being stopped at the skirmish line and have gotten nowhere close to the second and third echelons of Russian defenders. Dozens of Leopard II tanks and Bradley infantry fighting vehicles—NATO’s state-of-the-art land warfare equipment—have been blown up and set on fire by mines, kamikaze drones, and artillery during the stalled offensive. In spite of much bragging in recent months about its superior training, equipment, and operational art, the NATO-trained brigades have not performed particularly well. Well-choreographed combined arms tactics were supposed to provide a significant advantage, but they neglected mine-clearance and air defense. Thus, Russian attack helicopters have had a field day blowing up Ukrainian armor at leisure. Judging by the barely avoided friendly-fire incident shown here, the Ukrainians are not maneuvering their equipment with a lot of panache, even when they’re not under helicopter attack. A lot is going wrong. While NATO devoted a lot of energy and money to training, it has little recent experience with this kind of warfare. NATO training was based on an elaborate theory of how conventional wars would go, but experience is necessary to refine and modify such doctrines. It is telling that the one brigade making any significant advances during the counteroffensive was not one of the new ones, but rather one made up of veteran Ukrainian soldiers using ex-Soviet equipment. Finally, as with the initial stages of the Russian invasion, the Ukrainians have neglected the principle of mass. Their brigades are advancing here and there, but the only way something could conceivably be achieved is by massing a dozen or more brigades in a narrow and vulnerable part of the front. |
| Posted by:Besoeker |
| #28 my skepticism may just be asshole cynicism That is my default position nowadays. Everyone is trying to sell you something. Whether they do it by peddling the whole truth minus some very important details a la the Russians or they go full Ukrainian and just make shit up like the Ghost of Kiev, it is still an information operation. Any news report is less a data dump and more a sales pitch for a time-share condo. |
| Posted by: SteveS 2023-06-23 22:57 |
| #27 I find reports from both sides unverifiable and self-serving, even if partially true. That said, I don't talk to a lot of people, so my skepticism may just be asshole cynicism. My Mom agrees in a general sense, so I did talk to someone |
| Posted by: Frank G 2023-06-23 20:38 |
| #26 I can forget Scott Ritter very, very easily. |
| Posted by: magpie 2023-06-23 20:24 |
| #25 Agreed. They're imaginary, just like yours. I will endeavor to do better. |
| Posted by: Frank G 2023-06-23 19:39 |
| #24 #22 ^ I would suggest you expand your resource pool. |
| Posted by: Dale 2023-06-23 19:26 |
| #23 Many others as well, Alexander Mercouris, Alex Christoforou, Emil Cosman is Romanian living in USA and has colorful way of expressing himself. I should not forget Scot Ritter. |
| Posted by: Dale 2023-06-23 19:21 |
| #22 People I talk to aren't buying your BS |
| Posted by: Frank G 2023-06-23 19:10 |
| #21 'Douglas Abbott Macgregor (born January 4, 1947) is a retired U.S. Army colonel and government official, and an author, consultant, and television commentator.' One source but also others but I have found it makes no difference. |
| Posted by: Dale 2023-06-23 19:04 |
| #20 Offensive war has gone both upmarket (US way of war) and downscale (use of cheap Chinese drones loaded with explosives). |
| Posted by: Enver Slager8035 2023-06-23 17:21 |
| #19 will we still have Inoffensive Warfare? Now I am offended by that and we are now at war, sir. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2023-06-23 16:17 |
| #18 If we are at the end of Offensive Warfare, will we still have Inoffensive Warfare? |
| Posted by: NoMoreBS 2023-06-23 16:10 |
| #17 I feel we will get to a point where there will be such a critical mass of lies (not just Ukraine, but everything) that gravity itself will cease to function. |
| Posted by: M. Murcek 2023-06-23 15:56 |
| #16 Like that guy said, "You can observe a lot just by talking to people." One of the maddening things about this war is the difficulty of figuring out what exactly is going on. It's like we are putting together a jigsaw puzzle with real pieces, missing pieces and a whole bunch of fake piece all dumped in the box together. Maddening, but part of the game. Essentially, what we have seen so far is WWI on steroids with one side sitting in their trenches being shelled by the other. My guess is that casualties figures range from roughly equal for both sides to in favor of the Russians by some small integer multiplier. The Russians currently seem more focused on reducing the Ukrainian forces rather than going for territory. |
| Posted by: SteveS 2023-06-23 15:17 |
| #15 Arlington National Cemetery Is Almost Full and May Start Restricting Who Can Be Buried There |
| Posted by: Skidmark 2023-06-23 14:00 |
| #14 In Lviv they're digging up old graves to make room to bury dead Ukrainian soldiers. |
| Posted by: mossomo 2023-06-23 12:44 |
| #13 Tis not the kill ratio you are looking for, but it is a g-d damn awful lot of bodies. 10-1. 5-1. 2-1. *shrugs* Does the ratio matter? Let's call the ratio a spanking. No matter the ration, you can now rent scooters and bikes to navigate the cemeteries to find your buried loved ones. Ivano-Frankivsk military cemetery has grown so much that it now offers electric scooters and bicycles for rent. |
| Posted by: mossomo 2023-06-23 12:42 |
| #12 Heaven help us if we ever get into a real war. |
| Posted by: Abu Uluque 2023-06-23 12:14 |
| #11 Dale channeling Baghdad Bob? |
| Posted by: NoMoreBS 2023-06-23 12:12 |
| #10 Seems that NATO also has its share of parquet generals. They "neglected mine clearing and air defense" and now they're all surprised and butt hurt that the offensive is not going well. Inspires about as much confidence as the Afghanistan withdrawal. |
| Posted by: Abu Uluque 2023-06-23 12:12 |
| #9 But it's true! I told him myself! |
| Posted by: Ghost of Ukraine 2023-06-23 11:50 |
| #8 He talks to people |
| Posted by: Frank G 2023-06-23 10:58 |
| #7 10-1 kill ratio favoring Russians. You keep saying that but where is your proof? Citing Russian propaganda is less than useless. The real numbers will only come out after the war is over. Not even Russian military correspondents are claiming that kill ratio. |
| Posted by: badanov 2023-06-23 10:19 |
| #6 10-1 kill ratio favoring Russians. You keep saying that but where is your proof? Citing Russian propaganda is less than useless. The real numbers will only come out after the war is over. |
| Posted by: magpie 2023-06-23 09:58 |
| #5 Breaking the illusion of border sovereignty and defense is expensive. |
| Posted by: Skidmark 2023-06-23 08:43 |
| #4 10-1 kill ratio favoring Russians. Ukrainian hospitals full. No air cover. Russians have communications untouched. Artillery, minefields, dragons teeth, trenchers and well trained and supplied Russian troops. NATO used game simulation to sell this effort to the Ukrainians. Real world behaves differently. |
| Posted by: Dale 2023-06-23 08:23 |
| #3 Not Dave's only bad call. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2023-06-23 07:21 |
| #2 I think it's very safe that "the end of bad predictions by Petraeus and his ilk" is still a ways off. |
| Posted by: M. Murcek 2023-06-23 07:14 |
| #1 ....Lesseee.....'The End Of The Aircraft Carrier', no...."The End Of The Tank', no...."The End Of Gun-Armed Fighters' - one of MY favorites, but still, no....ah, here we are! 'The End Of Offensive Warfare'! Mike |
| Posted by: MikeKozlowski 2023-06-23 06:44 |