Text taken from an article by Russian blogger Multi-XAM.
Map references in the link, and are in English
[Telegra.ph] Continuing to analyze the situation in the South-Donetsk direction, we note the increased activity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of Velika Novoselovka, the Vremievsky ledge in the direction of the settlements of Storozhevoye, Blagodatnoye, Makarovka, Staromayorskoye and Urozhaynoye, which are located along the route T-05-18 in order to reach the border Staromlynovka and further south to Rozovka, which will allow him to block the highway to Melitopol.
Kyiv understands that by gaining a foothold here, it will be able to create a full-fledged springboard for developing an offensive in an eastern direction. At the same time, while covering the right flank of the armored units attacking Novodonetskoye, at the same time ensure the transfer of reserves to the southeast in the direction of Mariupol.
At the same time, after analyzing publications in Western analytical publications, we come to the conclusion that with objective activity in this area, the possible successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are clearly overestimated. The enemy, indeed, is rushing towards Staromlynovka and the Wet Yaly valley, seeking to create a threat to the Russian forces in Volnovakha.
The indication that Staromlynovka is currently under the control of the enemy is untenable, since it is not even confirmed by Ukrainian sources.
We note that, oddly enough, the activists of the Finnish OSINT-community Black Bird Group, who analyze both Ukrainian and Russian sources in danimic, demonstrate the situation on the LBS more or less objectively.
As of June 14, Russian troops continue to counterattack in this area with the forces of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division and the Kaskad OBTF. The enemy, indeed, managed to partially gain a foothold in the area of ​​the settlements of Storozhevoye and Makarovka with advanced units of the 35th and 37th Separate Naval Infantry brigades, the 4th Separate Tank Brigade, the 68th Separate Jaeger Brigade, as well as the 129th separate Territorial Defense Brigade.
According to our information, in the Zaporozhye sector of the front, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, acting from the positions of the Gulyai-Polye bridgehead, created a threat of blocking the supply center of the RF Armed Forces in Pologi. Obviously, the enemy does not seek to attack in a wide zone (the conditions of the flat terrain leave their mark). Therefore, it focuses its main efforts on seizing the initiative in the area of ​​key settlements in the LBS band. Thus, trying to block the transport and communication nodes.
In our opinion, if the enemy manages to gain a foothold in key areas, he will create favorable conditions for breakthroughs of tank units. And here, as we informed you earlier, it should be taken into account that the enemy has not yet committed the main reserves to the battle, counting on a debilitating effect.
Summing up the data on the situation that come from the field and supplemented by information from Western sources, we can conclude that the offensive is still proceeding in the same format. The statements of official representatives of the Western authorities that the enemy is preparing a strike in the Donbas in the near future should be considered as an element of information confrontation in the context of increased activity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson direction.
Precision strikes with long-range precision weapons on Russian air defense facilities in Genichesk, in the context of the continued shallowing of the bottom of the Kakhovka reservoir (drying quickly in southern climates), suggests a possible enemy attempt to force the Dnieper in this area.
The situation is as follows: so far, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, acting as company-tactical groups reinforced with armored vehicles, are unsuccessfully trying to capture the advanced Russian defensive lines, losing a large number of armored vehicles. We record the constant transfer of new forces to the initial areas for the offensive, which indicates a steady desire to gain a foothold in the above areas.
Since the section of the T-0509 highway (Velikaya Novosyolka - Zolotaya Niva) is under tight fire control of the RF Armed Forces, the enemy is forced to act from the nearest rear, losing efficiency and manpower when deployed into battle formations. But, judging by the activity, the existing reserves allow us to maintain the current momentum of the offensive. In this regard, we can agree with the assessment of the channel "Military Chronicle," according to which "a series of large-scale attacks in the South-Donetsk direction, probably serves as a cover" for preparations for a strike in the main direction.