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| Those who scare the West with nuclear weapons are overlooking an important effect |
| 2023-06-15 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Sergey Khudiev [REGNUM] A recent piece by Professor Sergei Karaganov, in which he proposes to intimidate the West with the increasingly likely use of nuclear weapons, was just one of many publications calling for "returning fear" and making enemies tremble before nuclear war. As, for example, Karaganov writes, “it can even go as far as warning compatriots and all people of good will about the need to leave their places of residence near objects that could become targets of nuclear strikes in countries that provide direct support to the Kiev regime. ” The idea that it is necessary to strike fear into the West, and for this to demonstrate a willingness to use nuclear weapons or even to use them in practice, is in the summer air. However, talk about lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons has a number of effects, which, alas, pass over the attention of many authors of such appeals. It is assumed that the threat of the use of nuclear weapons will induce the West to abandon support for Ukraine and generally force it to lower the level of its claims to world domination. The reaction of Western elites is hard to predict, but what if deterrence doesn't work? Will Russia go for the real use of nuclear weapons, inviting a retaliatory strike, or quietly back down, making its further threats unconvincing? But besides Western elites, nuclear deterrence has another audience - its own citizens. Perhaps an undesirable audience: if it were possible to scare the Western elites and the population so that their own remained in blissful ignorance, this would be very convenient. But in our time, it is impossible to catch up with nuclear fear on strangers, without at the same time catching it on our own. Any nuclear rhetoric directed at the West will inevitably be broadcast inside the country, which is already partly happening. And within the country, this will lead (and is already leading, albeit on a moderate scale) to a number of effects that are difficult to recognize as desirable. People who call for "lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons" are simply framing the Russian leadership. And that's why. First, in order to trust their leadership, citizens must trust that political elites care about their lives and well-being. The message that is conveyed (consciously or not) by nuclear intimidation is that the life and well-being of citizens is a gamble. Those who go for it, in fact, argue that the authorities are quite ready to risk the mass, if not universal, death of their citizens in the course of a nuclear conflict. Think about how you would react to some people gambling on your family's life. Like, if we win, then it’s good, live on, and if not, then your loved ones will die a cruel death. A threat is effective when it is plausible, and it turns out to be plausible not only for strangers, but also for our own. Not only strangers hear: “we pose a threat to your very existence and are ready to carry out this threat,” but their own hear the same thing. The political leadership in this case will appear as people who are ready to expose the inhabitants of Russian cities to a retaliatory nuclear strike. And this, in turn, encourages citizens to see leadership as a mortal danger to themselves and their loved ones. People are usually not inclined to give trust and obedience to those who gamble on the lives of their children. Such players can cause strong and sincere hatred. Fear of nuclear war thus undermines the most important foundation of civil peace and stability - trust in the government, the readiness to proceed from the fact that it cares about the life and well-being of people. Another tool of power - punishment for an offense - is also significantly weakened. A person who is intimidated by the expectation of nuclear war is difficult to keep within the bounds of the law by the threat of a fine or even a prison sentence. After all, radioactive ashes do not need money, and who will plant him, he is ashes. Moreover, this mistrust, hatred and fear will cover not only ordinary people who live in cities that, as a result of an unsuccessful gambling game, can fly into, but also some part of the representatives of the elite itself, who also do not have a spare planet. Threatening gestures “Yes, we are generally terrible people, we don’t feel sorry for anyone,” shown to a Western audience, can be taken quite seriously by their own. And the thought cannot but come to her mind that my children will not grow up to be fat and better in a world where Russia will be less powerful than they will die in a nuclear war. This intimidation turns the citizens against the elite, and parts of the elite against each other, and does it really effectively. Not like frankly stupid enemy orders about palaces and "fur coats". The vast majority of people simply do not care if the elite lives in luxury. Well, probably, he lives, but he doesn't bother us. But the informational pressure “the elites are ready to plunge you all into a nuclear war” will be difficult for people not to notice. The more people believe in the readiness of the top elite to unleash a nuclear war, the more they will grow willing to take the most desperate actions to prevent it. Another important psychological aspect is that in the face of confrontation and a tough economic race, people need positive motivation. We and our country have a future for which people study, invent, build and, most importantly, give birth and raise children. This requires a positive image of the future, in which these children will be alive, the buildings will stand, and the country in general will not be a radioactive desert. Nuclear intimidation destroys this motivation. Such intimidation, even if it does not end in a real nuclear war, will significantly undermine the internal stability of the country. It is this effect that should be taken into account, perhaps, in the first place. |
| Posted by:badanov |